2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Saturday, March 15)

The cream rose to the top on Friday. Every team projected on our top two seed lines is still playing today.

• SEC Semifinal – 1 Auburn vs. 4 Tennessee: Tennessee still has an outside shot at a No. 1 seed with an upset.
• SEC Semifinal – 2 Florida vs. 3 Alabama: Florida is in the lead, and this is a potential showdown for the final No. 1 seed.
• Big 12 Final – 1 Houston vs. 3 Arizona: Houston likely locked up a No. 1 seed by reaching the final; Arizona now gets a coveted No. 4 seed and Western site.
• ACC Final- 1 Duke vs. 2 Louisville: Duke survived a big comeback attempt by UNC and will be without Cooper Flagg again.
• Big Ten Semifinal – 1 Michigan State vs. 4 Wisconsin: Michigan State is locked into a No. 2 seed, likely opposite one of the SEC teams. Wisconsin solidifies themselves as a No. 3 seed.
• Big East Final – 1 St. John’s vs. 2 Creighton: St. John’s locked up the final No. 2 seed with their win and Texas Tech and Kentucky losing.

Maryland, meanwhile, was our big mover up to the final No. 3 seed line spot with their destruction of Illinois. We see that as enough to grab that one ahead of teams that lost early in their tournaments, like Iowa State or Texas A&M. Maryland will now face Michigan in the other Big Ten semifinal today.

Last year, we introduced our first Bracket Predictions post on Feb. 15 — which was 31 days before Selection Sunday.

So, how accurate were the projections we made one month early? Here’s a recap:

• Three of the four projected No. 1 seeds were correct. All eight teams projected as No. 1 or No. 2 seeds finished in one of those spots.
• Twenty of the 24 projected top-six seeds landed within one seed line. Just over a month later, nearly all remained in the expected range.
• Forty-one of the 46 teams projected in the top 11 seed lines made the tournament. Despite multiple bid-stealing upsets, our projections remained highly accurate.
• Every team projected as a No. 7 seed or better made the field. Only one No. 9 seed or better missed, with Oklahoma as the first team out.
• Nine of 22 one-bid league tournament winners were correctly predicted. Our model identified nearly half more than a month in advance.
• Five teams from our initial projection missed the tournament. They combined for a 15-25 record down the stretch, with no additional wins over tournament teams.
• Colorado was the only at-large team not in our initial projection that made the field. After our first prediction, they finished 8-1, with key wins over Utah (twice), Washington State, and Oregon.

How Our March Madness Bracket Predictions Stack Up

Our final Bracket Predictions on Selection Sunday have been graded on Bracket Matrix for the past five tournaments (listed as Jason Lisk’s Bracketology). The final bracket is ranked 58th out of 179 bracketologists/sites tracked by their scoring methodology. It ranks ahead of prominent national websites like:

• ESPN (Joe Lunardi) at 118
• CBS (Jerry Palm) at 164
• FOX Sports (Mike DeCourcy) at 71

These rankings reflect final submitted brackets—essentially test answers after seeing all the notes.

However, our approach adds value beyond just Selection Sunday. We focus on providing accurate team assessments weeks in advance, not just a snapshot of “what would happen if the tournament were today.”

That claim is unverifiable—no NCAA Tournament was ever played in February. The only one that matters happens in March.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Friday, March 14

Here’s our projected 2025 bracket after a day that complicated the bubble picture even more. The teams just above the bubble mostly lost. The teams just outside it won. A long list of teams will now be nervous on Selection Sunday.

Bubble Picture Now Clear as Mud

Needless to say, that now creates a situation at the bubble where a lot of teams could be disappointed come Selection Sunday. Based on the metrics we track, there are now 11 teams with a margin of error that could get in but also get left out based on the whims and specific personal preferences of this Selection Committee. Five would get at-large spots, two are targeted for automatic bids (but that could still change), and four will be out. That “going to be out” number, though, could shift based on what happens still in the American, Atlantic-10, and Big West tournaments.

We have several measures that we look at, but right at the bubble, you are at the mercy of whatever mood and impression you left on particular Committee members. They will no doubt look at the team sheet metrics today and debate these teams. Here is our summary:

Team	NET	RESUME	SOR	Q1-Q2	AL Record
Arkansas	39	45	45	9-13	8-11
Texas	38	42	50	10-14	7-13
North Carolina	35	54	37	9-11	1-9
UC-San Diego	36	43	47	3-2	1-1
Xavier	46	48	43	9-11	3-7
VCU	32	53	49	6-5	1-1
Boise State	43	50	56	7-7	5-6
San Diego State	51	40	46	8-8	7-7
Indiana	54	51	48	8-13	4-10
Colorado State	52	56	53	8-7	4-6
Ohio State	41	44	58	9-15	4-11

• NET is the official NET ranking that the committee will use, and it was updated this morning.
• The “Resume” column is our proprietary formula, but it’s based on weighing the Quad 1 and 2 wins and all losses in a way that attempts to mirror how the committee has tended to make decisions (including overemphasizing wins against the top teams).
• SOR stands for Strength of Record, as shown at ESPN here. It has been updated and will be what the committee is looking at today. It’s similar to the concept of Wins Above Bubble and tries to answer the question, “How many wins would a team near the bubble have playing this team’s schedule?”
• Q1-Q2 is the combined Win-Loss record in Quad 1 and 2 games as of this morning. This record is a common factor in teams’ getting in or out of these bubble decisions, with many “surprises” having positive records in this category despite other warts.
• AL Record is our quick summary of that team’s W-L record against other teams we project in as locks or under at-large consideration at the bubble.

Bubble Thoughts on Teams

We wouldn’t bet the mortgage on any of these teams being in or out because beauty will be in the eye of the beholder. Arkansas is likely in, with the most wins against tournament-type teams and being inside the Top 45 (barely) in the three key metrics. Ohio State is almost certainly out (but we will technically leave the light on) because of the sheer number of losses and overall 17-15 record. Everyone in between is very much going to get debated today.

• Texas probably played their way in, jumping up to 10 Quad 1+2 wins and inside the Top 40 in the NET, though a win today should guarantee it.
• North Carolina is going to be hotly debated. The NET and SOR ranks have them in, but the quality wins do not. They still have 9 Quad 1+2 wins by dominating that next tier of teams. How much will the committee forgive that 1-9 record against the current projected field when most were against teams we project on the top two seed lines?
• Xavier is a slightly different version of North Carolina, but it has a few more wins over teams closer to the bubble. It is barely inside the Top 50 in all key metrics.
•  UC-San Diego and VCU have characteristics of mid-majors that got in: good NET ranks and a winning record against top two Quadrants. They are both projected auto-bids for now but could get put in the at-large pool ahead of others if they lose this weekend. They both start their tournaments today.
• San Diego State would probably be in, right on the cutline, but their starting center, Magoon Gwath, has missed the last four games, providing a reason to keep them out.
• Boise State and Colorado State have solid Q1/Q2 results, with Boise having better overall metrics entering today.
• Indiana is now ranked 48th or worse in our three key metrics, which is probably not good when you want to be selected as one of the country’s top 46-48 teams, as the committee is examining you today.

As of now, we are going with San Diego State being out (and Boise State being in) due to Boise’s win yesterday and the Gwath injury factor. We are also dropping Indiana, as these types of teams have tended to come up just short. Half of their at-large quality wins are against Ohio State. The big win at Michigan State is probably not going to offset everything else wrong with Indiana’s resume, given how things have broken.

There’s still drama about whether North Carolina and Texas can rise above this list and what happens with UC-San Diego and VCU.

To track our odds, follow our updates here: NCAA Bubble Watch 2025.

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Thursday, March 13

Here’s our projected 2025 bracket after a change right at the bubble. We highlighted six bubble teams in action yesterday. Five of them won, but Ohio State did not.

Mountain West & ACC Take Center Stage at the Bubble Today

Several other bubble teams are joining the fray today, and the Mountain West and ACC are at the center of it.

• #4 San Diego State and #5 Boise State go head-to-head (MWC). San Diego State is projected for our Last Four In, while Boise State is now the First Team Out. This is a big one for both teams.
• #2 Colorado State (vs. #7 Nevada in MWC Tourney). Colorado State is our third team out and may need to go all the way to the auto bid and tournament title. They must win today.
• #5 North Carolina vs. #4 Wake Forest (ACC Tourney). It’s hard to see a path to an at-large for the loser of this game while the winner keeps hope alive. North Carolina moved to our last team in, for now, but it is very much at risk of all sorts of bid thief scenarios and dropping out again. Wake Forest is our fourth team out.
• #6 SMU (vs. #3 Clemson in ACC Tourney). SMU has a very small chance of getting an at-large, and that starts today if they can beat Clemson, to set up another potential big win over Louisville in the semifinal.
• #9 Indiana (vs. #8 Oregon in Big Ten Tourney). Indiana wasn’t helped by nearly all the other bubble teams winning yesterday, and they need a win over Oregon to feel comfortable. They are currently in our Last Four In.
•  #4 Xavier (vs. #5 Marquette in Big East Tourney). Xavier is in a similar boat to Indiana. Yesterday didn’t help their chances, and now a win would be huge. Xavier is also in our Last Four In.
• #13 Texas (vs. #5 Texas A&M in SEC Tourney). Realistically, Texas needs to win to have a chance at an at-large, but would move up with a big win over a team projected as a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

McNeese State is Back in the NCAA Tournament

We got three more auto bids from Wednesday:

• #1 McNeese State was a heavy favorite in the Southland and rolled to the title. They look like a 12 seed.
• #2 Montana (Big Sky) was the regular season co-champ and won the showdown with #1 Northern Colorado. We project them as a 14 seed.
• #2 American University (Patriot) was the tourney favorite and backed it up with a dominant performance against Navy. They look like a 16 seed.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Wednesday, March 12

Here’s our projected 2025 bracket, following four more automatic bids being handed out on Tuesday. Three of them went to expected favorites, but we did have one big upset that has shifted some lower seeds.

Gonzaga Wins WCC

Gonzaga is rated highly in the metrics, but they have missed out on many of their bigger win opportunities this year. They changed that a bit on Tuesday, beating Saint Mary’s for the first time this year in a rock fight in which the teams combined for one made three-pointer.

We now have Gonzaga tentatively up to the 7-seed line, pending the action that is about to come from the other teams near them in the seed list.

Saint Francis Stunner Highlights Other Auto Bids

Three other auto bids were earned Tuesday:

• Saint Francis (Northeast): Central Connecticut came in with a 14-game win streak, but Saint Francis is now in the tournament with a 16-17 record after pulling the big upset. They are almost certainly heading to Dayton as a 16-seed play-in game participant.
• Robert Morris (Horizon): The top seed in the Horizon handled business, and we now project them as a 15 seed, though with enough upsets in upcoming tournaments, they could rise.
• UNC-Wilmington (CAA): Wilmington was the CAA tourney favorite as the 2 seed, ending Delaware’s Cinderella run. They project as a 14-seed right now.

Bubble Watch for Wednesday

The NCAA Tournament Bubble officially heats up on Wednesday. Here are the teams in action that we do not have as 100% locks, but with a greater than 1% chance to still get an at-large (all seeds are the seeds in their conference tournament, all times are ET):

• 9 Arkansas (vs. South Carolina), 1 pm, SEC
• 5 North Carolina (vs. Notre Dame), 2:30 pm, ACC
• 13 Texas (vs. Vanderbilt), 3:30 pm, SEC
• 10 Ohio State (vs. Iowa), 6 pm, Big Ten
• 7 Baylor (vs. Kansas State), 7 pm, Big 12
• 14 Oklahoma (vs. Georgia), 9:30 pm ET, SEC

Of those teams, we think Baylor, Arkansas, and Oklahoma are in “win-and-likely-in” territory. A loss, though, would at least have them in the discussion on Selection Sunday’s cut line.

The other three should be in “must-win” mode just to stay in consideration. Texas likely needs several wins. Ohio State isn’t getting in if they finish at 17-15, and even 18-15 with a single win over Iowa may not be enough if the bubble shrinks. North Carolina probably needs to reach at least the ACC semifinals.

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Tuesday, March 11

Here’s our projected 2025 bracket, now updated with two more automatic bids clinched on Monday night.

Wofford and Troy are In

We are up to seven automatic bids now, with two more on Monday.

• Wofford (Southern Conference): Wofford came from behind late to beat Furman, 92-85. Wofford is an extremely streaky team that got hot with its outside shooting (over 40% in all three tournament wins) to go dancing.
• Troy (Sun Belt): Troy emerged from the crazy Sun Belt bracket as the 3 seed (though they were in a four-way tie for first in the regular season). Troy is the opposite of Wofford. They are not reliant on outside shooting and not a particularly strong shooting team, but they get after it on defense, create turnovers, and rebound. They’ve been playing well for the most part over the last month.

We currently project Troy on the 14 seed line and Wofford as a 15.

Four More Bids Decided Tonight

We get four title games tonight, and quite the mix of games.

• Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s (West Coast): We get our annual West Coast showdown, as these teams have met in the WCC Final in eight of ten years and four straight.
• UNC-Wilmington vs. Delaware (CAA): Delaware, the 12 seed, has made a Cinderella run to the final. They face the pre-tourney favorite, looking for a massive upset.
• Robert Morris vs. Youngstown State (Horizon): Robert Morris is the 1 seed, while Youngstown has reached the final without leading scorer E.J. Farmer, who has missed the last three weeks.
• Central Connecticut vs. St. Francis (Northeast):  Central Connecticut has the nation’s longest win streak at 14.

Calm Before the Storm as ACC, Big 12 Start

Today is the first round in the Atlantic Coast and Big 12 Conference tournaments. We have seven total games across those two leagues.

None of the teams in action today are in consideration at the bubble. They all need to go on deep runs to win an improbable bid, just as NC State did last year in the ACC Tournament, before going on to the Final Four.

As a result, we get a little bit of a reprieve from bubble action, but things will pick up again on Wednesday.

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Monday, March 3

Here’s our projected 2025 bracket, updated after all the games played on Sunday, March 2. We are now less than two weeks from Selection Sunday and one week from the end of the regular season for all teams, so things are starting to clear up.

Georgia’s Great Week

The Georgia Bulldogs went from looking like they were in trouble to now looking like they will be in the NCAA Tournament, barring an utter collapse. Their odds went from about 30% to 80% in one week.

Georgia beat #6 Florida last Tuesday; the big win helps if you are near the bubble. They followed it up by dominating Texas on the road, winning 83-67. That knocked another potential bubble team out and pushed Georgia up, where they only need to avoid disaster. One more win this year should seal their bid.

Top Seeds Will Travel in 2025

Jahmai Mashack’s three-pointer buzzer-beater to give Tennessee the win over Alabama may have been a big one for Vols fans wanting to see their team play live in the NCAA Tournament.

Because of how first/second-round sites are laid out this year, one of the SEC teams currently fighting for a No. 1 seed may have to travel despite such a high seeding. Tennessee has two first/second-round sites less than 400 miles from Knoxville: Lexington, Kentucky, and Raleigh, North Carolina. Those are the two closest sites for Alabama, Auburn, Duke, and Florida. Someone will get left out in the game of “musical chairs” and travel to somewhere else, like Cleveland or Providence.

We noted that the SEC was having a historic season a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, it happens to be a year where the only first/second-round site within the SEC’s “footprint” is Lexington, Kentucky, the furthest north location possible in the conference, and not exactly a short drive for most of the schools. In comparison, in the last five NCAA Tournaments, there have been a total of 10 sites that fell within the same state as one of the current SEC schools. Three other sites have been in North Carolina and two in Indianapolis, the closest location in the Midwest to some SEC schools.

As a result, several top seeds will travel further than usual. That, in turn, could push other teams outside their geographic region. For example, if an SEC team gets moved to Cleveland, a Big Ten team just below them in the seed list suddenly has to go elsewhere.

Here’s a summary of the 2025 sites and which ones are relatively the closest and second-closest option for the Top 20 teams in our current bracket projection.

• Auburn, Duke, and two of Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee would currently project to go to Lexington and Raleigh.
• Houston will take one of the Wichita spots, but the other could come down to who the Selection Committee seeds highest among Iowa State, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech.
• Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Kentucky, and Marquette (since the last two cannot play in their home sites as hosts) would all be happy with Cleveland, so finishing highest among that group will matter.
• Wisconsin needs to stay ahead of others to get Milwaukee, while teams like Purdue, the other Big Ten teams, or Iowa State and Missouri would love to be in the state of Wisconsin as well.

As you can see from the graphic, no team in our Top 20 would have a first-round top preference of Seattle. The Providence location would have been a natural fit for a Connecticut program that was a top seed last year, but this year, they will not be. St. John's is the natural fit for Providence, but the only other projected Top 5 seed that might prefer to go there is Maryland, and the Terps are currently projected on the No. 5 seed line.

Arizona and Texas Tech would be the most natural fits for Denver, but would someone else push them out of that spot if they do not finish high enough?

As of right now, we are looking at a year in which only a few of the top seeds will be playing within 300 miles of home: Duke (Raleigh), Wisconsin (Milwaukee), St. John's (Providence), and maybe Tennessee if they get a preferred site. Others might be fits but be moved out because that site is already assigned, like Michigan or Michigan State to Cleveland.

Fans should be planning on a little more travel in 2025, even for the top contenders.

And if your team is targeted for the No. 4/No. 5 seed range, your most likely destinations are heading West to the Denver and Seattle sites. You better hope there are some direct flight options from wherever you are located if you want to follow your team.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Thursday, Feb. 27

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated after all games played on Wednesday, February 26.

Wild Two Days at the Bubble

Tuesday and Wednesday gave us swing game after swing game right at the bubble. Three of the four teams on our "First Out" list moved in, and the other one dropped out altogether. Three teams we had projected in the play-in games dropped to occupy the first three spots now listed out.

Here were the big results at or near the bubble:

• Oklahoma lost by a point to Kentucky, missing a big opportunity.
• Texas lost in OT at Arkansas in a massive game between the two bubble teams.
• Georgia got as big of a win as possible, beating Florida at home.
• Ohio State went to USC and got a must-win to move back to 16-13.
• Boise State beat Utah State for their seventh win in eight games.
• Baylor lost at Cincinnati to drop to 16-12 and fall into the bubble conversation.
• Wake Forest lost at home to Virginia, sinking their at-large chances.

In addition to those games, several teams won to lock up their spots. Vanderbilt, Creighton, Illinois, and Gonzaga all won, and we have them safely in. That puts 33 teams in our field as locks (everyone on the top eight seed lines plus Gonzaga). You can follow our updates here: NCAA Bubble Watch 2025.

Three SEC Teams Battle for Final No. 1 Seed

Houston has moved into a strong position for a No. 1 seed, joining Auburn and Duke. At FanDuel, they have Houston at -500 to get a No. 1 seed, implying close to an 80% chance it happens.

That leaves Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee for the last No. 1 seed, assuming Houston doesn't collapse.

The current FanDuel odds for the three are:

• Alabama -120
• Florida +110
• Tennessee +220

That's how we also have it in our most recent bracket, after Florida's loss to Georgia, with Alabama now projected as the No. 1 seed in the West Region.

Alabama closes by playing at Tennessee, vs. Florida, and at Auburn, as tough a stretch as a team could face to close the season. The home game against Florida gives them the edge heads up, and they have the best overall strength of schedule of the three. Two wins in that stretch would go a long way, while a 1-2 record, if the win were over Florida, would probably still have them in a close call for the final No. 1 seed going to the SEC Tournament.

Florida faces two other projected NCAA tournament teams at home: Texas A&M and Ole Miss, in addition to the trip to Alabama. If they can win all three, they would take a stranglehold on the final No. 1 seed, but that's a big if.

Tennessee hosts Alabama this weekend, then travels to Ole Miss before closing against last-place South Carolina. They likely need to go 3-0 to be in the conversation for the No. 1 seed entering Conference Tournament Week.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Tuesday, Feb. 25

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated after all games played on Monday, Feb. 24.

Lots of Movement in the 2 to 5 Seed Range

If there was any doubt, the weekend clarified that there are a clear top six teams and then a jumbled mess. The top six teams in our seeding are Auburn, Duke, Florida, Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee. Those teams went 6-0 over the weekend, and Houston added a second win with a big road win at Texas Tech on Monday night.

The remaining teams on our top 4 seed lines entering the weekend went a combined 3-9, with Michigan State beating Michigan in the only head-to-head matchup between those teams. Michigan (win at Nebraska on Monday) and Texas Tech (vs. West Virginia at home) were the only other winners, but each also lost a game. Most of the remaining teams lost in either upsets (like Wisconsin losing to Oregon at home and Arizona losing to BYU) or toss-up matchups (Missouri at Arkansas, Purdue at Indiana, Texas A&M at home vs. Tennessee).

As a result, there has been a lot of reshuffling in the No. 2 to No. 5 seed range in our bracket since Friday. That could continue. Very little is currently separating a team ending up as the final No. 2 seed or on the No. 5 seed line. St. John's moves up to the last No. 2 spot, but it is a tenuous one. If they close the year with three straight, including a win at Marquette, that's where they can end up.

Bid Thief Bubble Outlook

With just two weeks (and four or fewer games) until the end of the regular season for the major conference teams, we analyzed the remaining schedules and our outlooks to set some odds on teams making the tournament.

However, before we get to the specifics, we will likely encounter two to three "bid thief" situations. So, the teams currently listed as the last couple in the field are actually on the wrong side of the bubble.

For 2025, we see 11 conferences where at least one team could earn an at-large bid if it does not win its conference tournament.

That includes the following situations with exactly one at-large candidate:

• American: Memphis, 50% to win tournament
• Atlantic-10: VCU, 49% to win tournament
• Big West: UC-San Diego, 58% to win tournament
• Missouri Valley: Drake, 37% to win tournament

If you combine those four teams, there is only a 5% chance that they go a perfect 4-0. Memphis is a lock to make it, and while VCU, Drake, and UC San Diego are not, we do have them above some of the other teams in the field as at-larges right now, and they would be very much in the picture.

Add in the chances that a bid thief that we do not have currently projected in the field from the Mountain West (20%), Big East (15%), West Coast (12%), or ACC (6%) wins their conference tournament. We project an average of 2.6 "bid thief" situations that would push teams we currently have projected to auto bids into the at-large pool, busting bubbles of other teams.

Bubble Odds: Who's In, Who is In Trouble

After accounting for those bid thief situations, here are our odds to make the field for teams that (a) have less than a 100% chance but more than a 10% chance overall and (b) have greater than a 1% chance of an at-large.

Right now, we have 29 teams that we are declaring locks. That includes every team on our top seven seed lines, plus BYU after its four-game win streak, which included wins at Arizona and West Virginia and a blowout win over Kansas.

Seed	Team	Odds to Make
8	Utah State	98%
9	Creighton	97%
8	Connecticut	95%
8	Illinois	94%
9	New Mexico	94%
9	West Virginia	87%
9	Baylor	85%
10	Gonzaga	85%
10	VCU	82%
10	Vanderbilt	81%
10	Nebraska	68%
12	UC-San Diego	67%
11	Drake	65%
11	San Diego State	63%
11	Arkansas	62%
12	Indiana	55%
12	Oklahoma	50%
11	Texas	48%
11	North Carolina	42%
1ST OUT	Boise State	42%
2ND OUT	Wake Forest	36%
3RD OUT	Ohio State	34%
4TH OUT	Georgia	30%
5TH OUT	Xavier	20%
6TH OUT	SMU	20%
7TH OUT	George Mason	18%
8TH OUT	Santa Clara	14%
9TH OUT	Villanova	13%
10TH OUT	TCU	12%
11TH OUT	Cincinnati	10%

These odds were estimated by examining our projected win odds for the remaining games and whether those games qualified as Quad 1, Quad 2, or other. We also considered combinations of outcomes that might result in a team being a lock, above the bubble, on the bubble, or out.

We'll use Texas as an example since they appear right on the edge of the bubble now. They are currently 16-11. They face four key games: at Arkansas, at Mississippi St, at Georgia, and at Oklahoma. So, they play the three other SEC teams near the bubble.

If they go exactly 2-2 over those games, they are at 18-13, and our numbers would say they are right on the bubble cutline heading to the SEC tournament. If they go 3-1 or better, they are highly likely to be in, having just beaten multiple other bubble teams. Conversely, they are likely out if they go 1-3 or worse.

When we run all those numbers, we get:

• 5% chance of going 4-0 (lock to make)
• 26% of 3-1 (highly likely to make)
• 40% of 2-2 (on or near bubble)
• 29% of 1-3 or worse (likely out)

With just under a 50% chance to make it when right on the bubble at 18-13 (thanks to the high bid thief risk this year), that puts us at 48% overall for Texas to make it. You might quibble with us about the bubble odds, and this isn't an exact science with so many moving parts of where the bubble could end up. We think it's a reasonable estimate for teams within +/- 5% based on the schedule still in front of them.

These numbers include the at-large odds and the odds of qualifying as an auto bid, which is especially important for teams like Drake and VCU. It's also why a team like Boise State is above Ohio State in our projections, even though right now, we might have Ohio State at slightly ahead in just an at-large evaluation. Boise State has a better chance at an auto bid than a team like Ohio State, while having a similar at-large case.

There is a group of teams that didn't make this chart but which we think has a >1% chance at an at-large. These teams basically need to win out in the regular season and likely make deep runs in the conference tourney. They are San Francisco, Pittsburgh, UCF, USC, Iowa, Northwestern, and Utah.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 21

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated after all games played on Thursday, Feb. 20.

Switch on the No. 1 Seed Line

We are making one switch to our No. 1 seed line, and it's a very debatable call. We are bumping Alabama down to the first No. 2 seed and moving Houston back up to a No. 1 seed. Realistically, we have three teams fighting for the last two spots (Alabama, Florida, and Houston), with Tennessee still in the mix.

Alabama's loss to Auburn, followed by the 110-98 loss at Missouri, now has them in a virtual dead heat with Houston. Houston's outlook is slightly better (and they are ranked higher in our predictive ratings). If Alabama finishes the regular season at 24-7 and Houston at 26-5 (where our current projections are), it's a slight edge to Houston, even though Alabama beat Houston early in the year. Houston would be (a) more likely to be a regular season champ and (b) projected to advance further in their conference tournament.

Notable Bubble Winners and Losers

We had several notable outcomes that have impacted the bubble mid-week. Here is a rundown:

• BYU blasts Kansas. With this result, the Cougars went from near the bubble to solidly above it.
• Ohio State was blown out at home. A disastrous home loss to Northwestern puts the Buckeyes right near the cutline.
• UC-Irvine falls out. There was some chance UC-Irvine could get in as an at-large out of the Big West, but that chance disappeared with a home loss to Northridge.
• TCU moves up. The Horned Frogs got a big win over Texas Tech and moved into our First Four Out at 15-11.
• Boise State beats the Lobos. It was a must-win, and they are just outside our First Four Out and still in the mix.
• Nebraska lays an egg at Penn State. The Cornhuskers could have put themselves in a great position, but a road loss leaves them on the No. 11 line and still not safe.
• Arkansas almost beats Auburn. The Razorbacks could have made a major move at the bubble but missed a big upset and are still on the cutline.

Biggest Weekend Games

Here are the games for our bracket projections from Friday night through Sunday that involve two teams that are either in our projected field or within 10 spots of it, with the current projected seed in parentheses (all times ET):

• Michigan State (3) at Michigan (2) - Friday at 8 pm ET
• Tennessee (2) at Texas A&M (3 -  Saturday at noon ET
• TCU (First 4 Out) at Cincinnati (8th Team Out) - Saturday at noon ET
• Oregon (7) at Wisconsin (2) - Saturday at noon ET
• Mississippi State (5) at Oklahoma (11) - Saturday at 1 pm ET
• West Virginia (10) at Texas Tech (3) - Saturday at 1 pm ET
• Iowa State (3) at Houston (1) - Saturday at 2 pm ET
• Mississippi (6) at Vanderbilt (10) - Saturday at 3:30 pm ET
• Clemson (6) at SMU (First 4 Out) - Saturday at 4 pm ET
• Georgia (First 4 Out) at Auburn (1) - Saturday at 4 pm ET
• George Mason (9th Team Out) at VCU (11) - Saturday at 4 pm ET
• Kentucky (4) at Alabama (2) - Saturday at 6 pm ET
• Saint Mary's (8) at Gonzaga (9) - Saturday at 8 pm ET
• San Diego State (10) at Utah State (8) - Saturday at 8 pm ET
• Missouri (4) at Arkansas (12) - Saturday at 8 pm ET
• Illinois (7) at Duke (1) - Saturday at 8 pm ET
• BYU (9) at Arizona (3) - Saturday at 10 pm ET
• Connecticut (8) at St. John's (5) - Sunday at noon ET
• Purdue (4) at Indiana (6th Team Out) - Sunday at 1:30 pm ET
• Ohio State (11) at UCLA (6) - Sunday at 3:45 pm ET

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Tuesday, Feb. 18

Before we get to the bracket, we did get the Early Reveal results, and we feel pretty good about our read after those were released.

Here's the early look at the top four seeds in each region, with the committee's overall seed in parentheses:

South: Auburn (1), Texas A&M (6), Wisconsin (11), Texas Tech (13)
Midwest: Alabama (2), Purdue (7), Iowa State (9), Kansas (15)
East: Duke (3), Tennessee (5), Arizona (12), St. John's (16)
West: Florida (4), Houston (8), Kentucky (10), Michigan (14)

The top two seed lines perfectly matched our Friday update, including having them all in the correct region and with the same one-vs-two matchups.

The Top 16 also matched what we thought most likely based on only results to date. (St. John's was on our 5 seed line in the projections, but that includes future schedules).

But here's our reminder: This reveal is just a snapshot in time, and it came before Saturday's games. Lots of things have already changed with several big swing games occurring.

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated through all games played as of February 17.

Big Results from the Weekend That Was

Here is a quick rundown of the most significant outcomes that impacted the bracket predictions:

• Auburn beat Alabama - solidifying Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed and a near-lock as a top seed.
• Houston won at Arizona - pushing Houston toward the No. 1 seed line.
• Wisconsin won at Purdue - pushing the Badgers to the highest projected seed from the Big Ten.
• Texas got a big win over Kentucky - improving the Longhorns' chances of avoiding the bubble.
• Michigan State won impressively at Illinois - reversing a recent slide for the Spartans.
• Missouri continued to roll, winning at Georgia - The Tigers may not have been in the reveal, but are trending toward a top-four seed now.
• Wake Forest won a big bubble game at SMU - pushing the Demon Deacons back in with a Quad 1 win and dropping SMU.

Locks, Probables, and Bubble Teams

For most major conference teams, there are three weeks until the end of the regular season and about six regular season games remaining. It's a good time to consider who is in, who is likely in, and who has a chance.

When we say a team is a "lock," we mean "they could lose every remaining game and still get selected." That's a high bar, and as we get closer to the end of the season, the locks will start to solidify rapidly.

Locks (21)

Every team on our top 5 seed lines in the above bracket, plus Maryland, is in the lock category.

Losing out would be bad, but these teams are so far above the bubble that they would still get in. The bracket includes seven SEC teams, six Big Ten teams, five Big 12 teams, two Big East teams, and Duke from the ACC.

Near-Locks (10)

We aren't quite ready to call it for these teams, but they are 90%+ to make the NCAA tournament and are in unless they collapse down the stretch.

The teams in this category are Clemson, Creighton, Illinois, Louisville, Memphis, Mississippi, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Oregon, and Saint Mary's.

Likely (6)

If these teams play like they have so far, they are in and would be above the cutline. However, things could get dicey if they underperform down the stretch and the bubble shrinks. We would put all these teams at 75% to 90% to make the tournament.

Teams in this category include Baylor, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Utah State.

Above the Bubble (3)

These teams are more likely than not to make it on the right side of the bubble, but the margin is not large. The three teams are Texas, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia from the SEC and the Big 12.

The True Bubble (10)

These teams are where every outcome matters, and they are at the mercy of bid thief situations as we head toward March. If every favorite wins the conference tournaments, there are five spots here right now, but this is subject to shift.

Some of these teams (denoted with a *) are projected for current automatic bids but would join the bubble conversation if they lose in their conference tournaments.

Arkansas, BYU, Drake*, Georgia, Oklahoma, San Diego State, SMU, UC-San Diego*, VCU*, Wake Forest

Need to Make a Move (11)

These teams have a viable path to an at-large bid but need to add big wins or, in the case of mid-majors, win virtually every remaining game against the teams they are expected to beat.

The teams in this category are Boise State, Cincinnati, George Mason, Indiana, North Carolina, TCU, UC-Irvine, USC, Utah, Villanova, and Xavier.

So You're Saying There's A Chance (8)

These high-major teams need to go on significant runs (and potentially win out the rest of the regular season) to have a chance at an at-large, but the improbable path is still there.

Arizona State, Iowa, Kansas State, LSU, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and UCF are among the teams that could reach the bubble with a big winning streak.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 14

We get the Selection Committee's Early Reveal on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET (airing on CBS). In that reveal, the committee will review the top four seed lines in specific regions.

We are providing our projected bracket (which may not precisely match how we think the teams will be seeded tomorrow) and will also offer our thoughts on some of the big questions we will be interested in.

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated through all games played as of February 13.

What Has Changed This Week?

Since we released our Monday bracket update, there have been a lot of big mid-week games.

Here are some of the notable shifts in our predictions:

• Lots of movement in the 3 to 5 seed range: Kentucky moves up after finishing a sweep of Tennessee. Michigan moves up with the win over Purdue, and Michigan State drops with the home loss to Indiana -- among many shifts.
• SEC bubble slide: We still have most of them in, but many SEC teams moved closer to the bubble, as the middle of the conference took it on the chin in some losses to the top teams this week. Oklahoma, Texas, and Georgia are now on the 11 seed line, just above the cut, while Arkansas remains the First Team Out.
• ACC Yacks: Entering the week, we had Wake Forest just in, with North Carolina and Pitt just out. Wake Forest blew a big lead at home to Florida State, North Carolina got crushed by 20 at Clemson, and Pitt lost by 20 at SMU for their eighth loss in 10 games. We do not have these three in the "First Four Out" now.

What We Will Be Watching with the Bracket Reveal

The Bracket Reveal can give us some intel on how this Selection Committee views teams. While selection committees' general behavior and decisions are reasonably predictable, each has preferences in some close calls.

We anticipate the Committee will reveal the No. 1 seeds as Auburn (first overall), Alabama, Duke, and Florida.

We swapped Houston and Florida on the top line in our projections. While we think it will ultimately be a very close call, Florida has the better results. Meanwhile, Houston has many Quad 1 opportunities that can bolster its case.

Here are some of the decisions we will be monitoring:

• Will any Big East team get into the reveal? And which one? In our projected bracket, we have Marquette on the No. 4 line and St. John's dropping to the No. 5 line with the loss at Villanova. Right now, we would probably have St. John's slightly higher. But both are right on the cutline to get that final No. 4 spot in the reveal. If neither (or both) are in the reveal, it might give us insight into what the committee thinks of the Big East this year.
• Will we have five SEC teams on the top two lines? Our projections and the numbers show five SEC teams on the top two lines. Will the committee create a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are from the same conference? It would be a first if it happened.
• What is the order for the Big 12? We have four teams from the Big 12 on the 3/4 line: Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Since they are so close to each other, we are interested in what the committee thinks the current order is.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Monday, Feb. 10

We launched our first bracket prediction update for 2025 on Friday, and right after, the two teams we had as the top two seeds (Auburn and Duke) lost. How's that for timing?

Still, we have those two teams as the top two No. 1 seeds, as their accomplishments to date merit it.

Here's our projected 2025 bracket, updated through all games played as of February 10.

February 10 Bracket Prediction

2025 NCAA Tournament Prediction Overview

With the conclusion of the Super Bowl, our attention officially shifted to March Madness. If you’ve been preoccupied, don't worry; we’ll bring you up to speed on how this year's season and the upcoming 2025 NCAA Tournament are shaping up.

The Dominant SEC

The first major storyline is that the SEC has been historically dominant this year. You might notice that the top two seed lines include five SEC teams. Here are some notes about why you might see a lot of SEC teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

• SEC teams went 185-23 (89%) in non-conference games.
• Against the other Top 6 conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, and Mountain West), they went 62-19 (77%).
• All but one of the 16 SEC teams went 11-2 or better in non-conference play, and that one was South Carolina, who went 10-3 and is currently winless in conference play.
• The conference has only six losses to teams not in our projected 2025 NCAA Tournament field today, and half of those were by the aforementioned South Carolina.
• Thirteen of the 16 teams are inside our Top 50 in power ratings, and No. 83 South Carolina is the only one ranked outside our top 65.

In early November, we had 11 SEC teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Based on our probability calculations, the average expected number of SEC teams in the field was 9.1.

However, in our latest bracket update, the SEC’s outlook has improved significantly. We now have 13 teams projected in the field, with an average of 12.6 expected to make the NCAA Tournament.

Biggest (Good) Surprises in Our 2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Looking back on the preseason prognostications (in our preseason rankings and the national polls), here are some big surprises:

• Auburn: We had them as a projected No. 1 seed, but that was not the consensus. They were at No. 11 in the preseason AP poll and have been at No. 1 for a big chunk of the year.
• St. John's: The Johnnies were left out of last year's tournament and were unranked in the AP Poll to start the year. Rick Pitino's squad is our highest-projected Big East team now and sits at 12-1 in conference play after winning at Connecticut over the weekend.
• Florida: The Gators were seen as a good but not great team, at No. 21 preseason and coming off as a No. 7 seed last year, but they are in contention for a No. 1 seed with a month until Selection Sunday.
• Missouri: The Tigers were winless in SEC play a year ago, but a new group of transfers not only has them in the tournament but projected for a solid seed in the No. 5 range in our latest bracket.
• Louisville: The Cardinals have gone 12-52 in the last two seasons, but under new head coach Pat Kelsey (previously with Charleston), they look to be heading back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
• Drake: The Bulldogs have been an NCAA Tournament fixture lately, but they have a new head coach and roster. Head coach Ben McCollum came from Division 2 Northwest Missouri State, and all five starters this year transferred from Division 2. They are 22-2 and projected to return to the NCAA Tournament again despite being outside our (and likely most people's) top 100 teams entering the year.

Biggest Disappointments of Our 2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions

• North Carolina: The Tar Heels were a No. 1 seed a year ago and again in nearly everyone's Top 10, but as of today, we project them on the wrong side of the bubble after a 14-10 start.
• Indiana: The Hoosiers were ranked in the Top 20 in the preseason but have been fading, and there are reports that head coach Mike Woodson is stepping down at the end of the year.
• Connecticut: The two-time defending champions were expected to reload (preseason AP No. 3), but it is a year with more big tirades by head coach Danny Hurley than quality wins over top NCAA Tournament teams, and we currently project them as a No. 8 seed.
• Kansas: The Jayhawks, who still project as a No. 4 seed, are on this list because they were the consensus No. 1 team in the preseason. If Kansas finishes at a No. 4 seed or worse, it will mark the first time the program failed to have a top-three seed in consecutive NCAA Tournaments since 2000 and 2001, before head coach Bill Self's arrival.
• Arkansas: The Razorbacks were ranked No. 16 in the AP Poll in the preseason, with high expectations for John Calipari as the new head coach. However, a demanding SEC schedule and a 3-7 start in the league have them on the bubble.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 7

With Selection Sunday just over five weeks away, we're kicking off our in-season bracket predictions for how we expect the 2025 NCAA Tournament field to take shape.

Below is our projected 2025 bracket, updated through all games played as of Feb. 6.

February 7 Bracket Prediction

Projected No. 1 NCAA Tournament Seeds

We projected Auburn, Alabama, Duke, and Houston as No. 1 seeds in our November preseason bracket prediction, and they remain our top picks heading into Selection Sunday.

• Auburn: Initially projected as the last No. 1 seed, Auburn has dominated and now holds strong odds for the top overall seed.
• Duke: With a December win over Auburn and an undefeated ACC record since November, Duke has a 50% chance of running the table in conference play.
• Alabama & Houston: Houston remains slightly ahead of Tennessee, thanks to a stronger power rating and better conference title odds, a factor the Selection Committee has historically rewarded in tight decisions.
• Top No. 2 Seeds: Tennessee, Florida, and Purdue have realistic paths to a No. 1 seed if they exceed expectations down the stretch.

Any team not listed has significant ground to make up to be considered for a top seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

2025 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field as of Feb. 7:

• Texas
• New Mexico
• Nebraska
• Georgia
• BYU
• San Diego State
• Arkansas
• Pittsburgh

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT) as of Feb. 7:

• Vanderbilt
• Wake Forest
• SMU
• North Carolina
• Indiana
• Xavier
• Central Florida
• USC

Our projected automatic bids are VCU (Atlantic 10) and Drake (Missouri Valley). They would be right on the bubble if either ends up in the at-large pool.

Last year, five of our "last eight in" teams made the tournament, while only one of our "first eight out" (Colorado) got in. Due to all the "bid thief" upsets, Colorado was the only team to make it as an at-large who was not in our initial field. No team outside our initial field or first eight out earned an at-large bid last year.

How the Mega Conferences Might Influence the Bubble in 2025

Many SEC teams sit just above or on the cutline, while ACC teams are clustered just below it. Despite our raw formula favoring Vandy, we moved Vanderbilt out and Pittsburgh in.

Also, conference realignment has added complexity to this year’s Selection Committee decisions, particularly for bubble teams. This is the first NCAA Tournament since the Pac-12 disbanded, leading to significant realignments:

• Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC
• The Big Ten and Big 12 absorbed former Pac-12 teams
• The ACC expanded

As a result, our projected bracket includes 31 teams from the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12—with 20 of the top 24 seeds coming from these conferences.

The Bottom Line: If you're a bubble team sitting as your conference's 13th or 14th representative, don’t count on the Committee bending over backward to squeeze you in. History suggests they may look for an easier solution.