How Often Do No. 1 Seeds Make the Final Four?

How often do No. 1 seeds make the Final Four on average, and how often do they win the NCAA Tournament?

When March Madness arrives, the top seeds are expected to dominate. But how often do No. 1 seeds make the Final Four–actually delivering on those expectations? Let’s dive into the historical data and run through what it means for your bracket strategy.

How Many No. 1 Seeds Make the Final Four?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 62 of the 156 Final Four spots — which comes out to 39.7%.

That’s an average of 1.58 top seeds in the Final Four each year. Granted, there’s some uneven year-to-year distribution within that.

Still, the No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four at nearly double the rate of No. 2 seeds (which has 32 appearances) and four times the rate of No. 3 seeds and No. 4 seeds (17 and 15, respectively).

Has a Final Four Ever Had All No. 1 Seeds?

It has happened only once, in 2008. That year, Kansas (the eventual champion), Memphis, North Carolina, and UCLA made the Final Four as No. 1 seeds.

It came close to happening again in 2015, as three No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. That particular feat has occurred three times in NCAA Tournament history since 1985.

Recent Trends for No. 1 Seeds in the Final Four

Since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011, the top seeds have made the Final Four at a lower rate, accounting for 17 of 52 spots, or 32.7% of teams.

In addition, the Final Four has featured one or fewer No. 1 seeds in three of the last five tournaments. Here’s the breakdown:

• 2024: Two — Purdue & UConn (who won the championship)
• 2023: None
• 2022: One — Kansas (who won the championship)
• 2021: Two — Gonzaga & Baylor (who won the championship)
• 2019: One — Virginia (who won the championship)
• 2018: Two – Kansas & Villanova (who won the championship)
• 2017: Two — Gonzaga & North Carolina (who won the championship)
• 2016: One — North Carolina
• 2015: Three — Kentucky, Wisconsin, & Duke (who won the championship)
• 2014: One — Florida
• 2013: One — Louisville (who won the championship)
• 2012: One — Kentucky (who won the championship)
• 2011: None

What Percent of No. 1 Seeds Win the NCAA Tournament?

Since 1985, when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, a No. 1 seed has won the championship 64.1% of the time (25 of 39 tournaments).

Since the field grew to 68 teams in 2011, that number has increased to 69.2%, with a No. 1 seed winning 9 of the last 13 titles.

Interestingly, while No. 1 seeds have won at a higher rate since 2011, their Final Four appearances have actually declined during that span (as noted above).

What Does This Mean For Your 2025 Bracket?

While historical trends about No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four provide valuable context, they don’t tell the whole story for your bracket strategy.

Every tournament is different, and blindly picking top seeds (based on trends) won’t give you an edge.

The key is identifying which No. 1 seeds are legitimate contenders and which are overvalued based on public perception.

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