2025 PoolGenius Bracket Recap: First Round to Final Four

We review key 2025 tournament results so far, and compare the positioning of PoolGenius bracket performance to the general public.

In these tournament recaps, we’ll track the major results so far and see how PoolGenius customized brackets are performing against the overall public—after all, that’s what really matters.

We will publish these updates after the first weekend (First Round and Second Round) and again after the second weekend (Sweet 16 and  Elite Eight) concludes. After the tournament ends, we will post a final “Bracket Picks in Review” writeup.

As we write these recaps, we often speak in generalities. Depending on your pool rules and size, we know you may have picks different from some highlighted here. This is meant to provide an overview of how the picks have performed across all our recommendations compared to how the public (the typical pool entrant) is doing.

Our Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Recap is now posted below. You can see the earlier First and Second Round recap here.

2025 Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Round Recap + Bracket Performance

Subscriber Survey Coming Soon!

Note: We will email NCAA Bracket Picks subscribers a link to our 2025 subscriber survey on Tuesday, April 8 — the day after the NCAA tournament title game.

Please take a few minutes to fill it out. It’s the only way we can measure how our brackets did in real-world pools, and we’d greatly appreciate your feedback. 

The 2025 Final Four is set, and for the second time ever, all four No. 1 seeds are still alive. Before the tournament, we assessed that the drop-off from the top seeds to everyone else was larger than a typical year, which led to virtually all of our champion picks and most of our Final Four picks coming from the top seeds.

So far, that has worked out, though it also means that the four most popular picks to win the title are still alive, and this is a year where you probably need to hit the right title game outcome exactly in a lot of pools to finish highly.

Public Performance: Final Four Picks Correct in 2025

In terms of pick popularity in bracket pools, here’s what an average of public picking trends data from multiple bracket contest sites looks like:

• 66.7% of brackets nationwide had No. 1 Duke in the Final Four
• 61.4% had No. 1 Florida in the Final Four
• 52.2% had No. 1 Auburn in the Final Four
• 46.7% had No. 1 Houston in the Final Four

Add those percentages up, and the “average” bracket is expected to have gotten 2.27 Final Four picks correct in 2025. So compared to the nation at large:

• 1 correct Final Four pick: Well below average
• 2 correct picks: Below average
• 3 correct picks: Above average
• 4 correct picks: Nearly 2x the public average – excellent!

• 10.0% picked all Final Four teams correctly
• 31.8% picked three teams correctly
• 36.7% picked two teams correctly
• 18.2% picked one team correctly
• 3.3% got no Final Four teams right

So, any review of bracket performance in 2025 needs to be done in the context of those overall results. As we often say, every year and every tournament are different. Last year, only about 1 in 5,000 brackets got all four Final Four teams correct. This year, it’s 1 in 10.

With all four top seeds advancing, you probably need at least three (and maybe all four) Final Four teams correct. That’s especially true if you have one of the most popular champion picks: Duke or Florida.

Your Pool(s) May Not Reflect National Averages

Of course, pick popularity for each team can vary substantially from pool to pool, especially in smaller pools.

For example, if you’re in a 10-entry pool situated on a direct route along I-10 in the Southern United States, everyone may have been picking the SEC No. 1 Seeds, Houston and Duke. 

On the other hand, if you’re in a 100-person pool packed with fans of Big Ten teams, getting the “chalky” Final Four picks right might put you in a fantastic position this year if more opponents were picking deep runs by the Big Ten schools.

PoolGenius Brackets vs The Public after the Elite Eight

The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured the favorite winning all 12 games over the second weekend, so not only did the No. 1 seed advance to the Final Four, but the Elite Eight was also as chalky as possible.

Bracket Impact

Our brackets continued to separate from the average public bracket through the second weekend as the top seeds advanced.

It wasn’t only due to the No. 1 seeds, though. The only team that was not our most common Elite Eight pick in Best Brackets to advance was Michigan State (though across all PG Brackets, not just Best Brackets, Michigan State was the most common suggested pick in the bottom half of the South region).

As a result, our Best Brackets earned around two more wins than the public in the Sweet 16 results and then padded that advantage in the Elite Eight.

We noted above that the most common single result for the public was to get two Final Four teams correct and that about 10% of public entries should have all four Final Four teams. In contrast, about 77% of our Best Brackets have all four Final Four picks right, and 40% of all our suggested brackets. That’s over 7x the public rate for our Best Brackets.

Again, results will vary from subscriber to subscriber. Because all four top seeds were the single most popular pick from each of their regions, there are still opponent entries in play. Some may have hit the key early-round picks and be ahead of our picks in particular pools.

But on average, our Best Brackets are solidly ahead of the public right now.

Future Positioning

Because our Best Brackets were more likely to have all four Final Four teams alive — and had heavier exposure to title favorite Duke — they now hold a clear edge over the public in both potential and expected points moving forward.

Here is a summary of the average points so far and the average max available points left (using traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring) for PoolGenius brackets versus the public:

Now, let’s take a look at the specific results that got us here.

Most Impactful Sweet 16 Results

Seven of the eight games’ results were really good for the vast majority of subscribers, with over 90% of Best Brackets having them advance. The Michigan State win was more of a mixed bag. The public advanced at a higher rate than our Best Brackets, but individually, there were still close to 40% of Best Brackets that did have the Spartans, and across all PoolGenius brackets, Michigan State represented the majority of picks.

Most Impactful Elite Eight Results

Every result in this round was a net positive for our subscribers. The one exception: Texas Tech’s blown lead, which hurt a small subset of brackets—mainly in larger pools where deeper Texas Tech runs were more common.

Looking to the Final Four

The table below shows each remaining team’s chances of reaching or winning the title game, along with the percentage of PG brackets and public entries picking them to do so.

To Reach the Title Game

To Win the Title

It goes without saying—Duke is a pivotal team for most brackets, especially against Houston. Virtually every Best Bracket we recommended includes Duke. The other semifinal is more split: more brackets have Florida, but a sizable segment would benefit more from an Auburn win.

Duke’s title odds are 44% by our own Round Odds estimates. So, although Duke is solidly the favorite, the other three have higher odds collectively to win than Duke does individually. Still, arriving at the Final Four with the title favorite as your champ pick—and a score well above the public average—is a strong position to be in.

Between the Best Brackets and Alternate Brackets, many entries should still be in contention. The alternates often make different key bets at the Final Four, helping cover a broader range of outcomes. That said, we can’t cover every scenario. For example, in a 70-entry test pool, our recommended brackets include five high-scoring entries with the following title game matchups still alive:

• Duke over Florida
• Florida over Duke
• Auburn over Duke
• Duke over Auburn
• Houston over Florida

But there are eight potential exact title game outcomes, just among the four No. 1 seeds. So, we cannot cover all of them and ensure victory. A Duke win would almost certainly lead to the highest number of entries finishing highly, and that’s where the main rooting interest lies for most of us.

Reminder: Survey Coming April 8

Enjoy the Final Four, and remember to complete our subscriber survey, which we will email you on Tuesday, April 8!

2025 First and Second Round Recap + Bracket Performance

We’ll dive into a detailed analysis of the first two rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament below, but first, here’s how PoolGenius (“PG”) subscriber brackets stack up to the public averages for picks correct or still alive after the Second Round.

• Both the first and second rounds were generally good for our Best Brackets across all pool types. Both outperformed the public, with the second round averaging over one win more than the public (11.2 to 10.1).
• Across the board, our recommended brackets for standard scoring slightly outperformed the Best Brackets in Round 1 (25.9 to 25.6), and both beat the public average of 24.2. The difference-maker? Baylor vs. Mississippi State—Baylor showed up more often in our alternate brackets than Best Brackets, which paid off.
• PoolGenius brackets for standard scoring averaged 11.8 wins in the second round, 1.7 more than the public average. That’s true whether you look at all PG brackets or just the Best Brackets,
• Those Best Brackets also made it through the first weekend without losing a single NCAA champion pick. A small percentage of PoolGenius brackets lost a champ pick—mostly in upset-heavy pools or massive entries where riskier champs were in play.
• Heading into the Sweet 16, the Best Brackets hold a solid edge over the public in terms of Elite Eight picks still alive—averaging 7.4 in standard-scoring pools and 7.1 across all Best Brackets (including other scoring formats), compared to just 6.1 for the public.
• Across the board, our PoolGenius brackets have more picks still alive than the public in every remaining round. That said, most of the public is still hanging onto their champ pick too—with about 90% still in play.
• Things can always change quickly, but PoolGenius customer brackets are well-positioned for the rounds ahead. We’ll explain everything below.

First & Second Round Results: Favorites Are Dominating (For Now)

Before we get to specific region/pod breakdowns from the Second Round, let’s review some high-level observations about the tournament.

In our bracket pick analysis, we often discuss how winning a bracket pool doesn’t depend on how many picks you get right in a vacuum. You simply need to score more points than your opponents do. That means two things:

• In years when many favorites make deep runs, you usually need to score a lot of points to win a pool.
• In years when a lot of crazy upsets happen and/or several long shots make the Final Four, a score that isn’t usually considered very good can still win a prize.

So far, the 2025 NCAA Tournament is trending toward the scenario in the first bullet point, as all of the No. 1 and three of the No. 2 seeds are still alive. Only one team seeded lower than a No. 6 seed (No. 10 Arkansas in the West) is still playing this year.

We saw a similar trend early last year, but the second weekend produced some shockers, most notably No. 11 NC State reaching the Final Four out of a region where the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 seeds had also advanced. No. 4 Alabama also advanced out of a region with the top two seeds alive entering the Sweet 16.

As a result, last year, you generally needed just two Final Four teams but probably needed both No. 1 Connecticut and No. 1 Purdue in the final.

So, while we look on target for a higher-scoring year in bracket pools overall, that could change if one of the relative dark horses, like No. 10 Arkansas, No. 6 BYU, or No. 6 Ole Miss, goes on a deep run.

Most Impactful Games: First Round

Here is every First Round winner where our pick recommendation rate (in either PG Best Brackets, all PG Brackets, or both) was at least 10% different than the public pick rate in the First Round, sorted by best results (for us) to worst.

• We took a firm stand on No. 12 Colorado State as the favorite over Memphis, and it paid off (and they justified our confidence by almost beating Maryland as well).
• The No. 7 vs. No. 10 games and No. 8 vs. No. 9 games were their usual mixed bag, with four positive and three negative results.
• The South region produced three of the five most costly First Round results for our picks, with Mississippi, Creighton, and New Mexico winning.
• The bottom half of the West region was the other quadrant that produced costly losses, with No. 6 Missouri and No. 7 Kansas losing.
• On balance, we had more positive than negative results (which is how we ended up ahead of the public average).

Most Impactful Games: Second Round

Below is every Second Round winner where our pick rate—whether in Best Brackets, all PoolGenius brackets, or both—differed from the public’s First Round pick rate by at least 10%. We’ve sorted them from best to worst in terms of how the results played out for us.

• No. 10 Arkansas doesn’t make this list because only 6% of the public had them advance beyond the Second Round (they were at 0% in our brackets).
• The No. 4 vs. No. 5 (and No. 12) results were generally positive for our picks, where we assessed the No. 5 seed group as relatively weak before the tournament. In the end, only No. 5 Michigan advanced (barely), while three of the No. 4 seeds did.
• No. 6 Ole Miss was the toughest loss—both because so many public brackets had them advancing and because they knocked out Iowa State. That Iowa State loss accounts for most of the Elite Eight misses in our brackets.
• Again, thanks to both Michigan and Mississippi, the South region has been the toughest for our brackets, while the other regions have mostly provided good results so far.

2025 NCAA Tournament: Looking Ahead After the First Week

The dust has settled from the first two rounds—now let’s take a look at how the odds to win it all have moved for each team still standing.

How Each Remaining Team’s Odds To Win It All Have Changed

A lot of the tournament’s top contenders are still alive. All the No. 1 seeds are still in action, and we only have four teams seeded between No. 2 and No. 4 that failed to advance.

Heading into the tournament, we felt the top four seed lines did a solid job reflecting the best teams in the field. But after that, things got messy—there was a steep drop-off in overall quality.

The No. 8 seed line was actually quite strong, but they ran into a brutal Second Round draw against top-tier teams. Despite solid efforts from UConn and Gonzaga, none made it through.

So we haven’t seen any massive shifts in teams’ odds to win the title based on getting vastly different draws from the Sweet 16 on. However, based on what happened over the first two rounds, some teams have improved their odds more than others.

Duke’s odds have jumped the most, largely thanks to two dominant performances that boosted their power rating. As a percentage, several long shots have seen significant gains, too—but their overall chances remain slim with so many top teams still in the mix.

The other teams that have improved their odds by 1.0% or more include:

• No. 1 Houston: getting past the toughest No. 8 seed in Gonzaga.
• No. 2 Michigan State: now drawing No. 6 Mississippi.
• No. 4 Maryland: getting through a tougher-than-people-realized path with Colorado State.
• No. 3 Texas Tech: now facing No. 10 Arkansas
• No. 1 Auburn: with the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds now gone from their region

Florida, on the other hand, is the one top seed whose odds have taken a hit. That’s mostly due to Maryland advancing—locking in a tougher Sweet 16 matchup than they could’ve had—and Auburn’s Final Four odds rising in the same region.

Second Weekend Overview & Beyond

As we head into Week 2, Duke remains the centerpiece pick in about half of our suggested brackets—still the favorite, and crucially, not overly popular (with Florida drawing nearly the same pick rate).

Of course, different bracket types call for different strategies. Some brackets lean on deep Auburn runs, others have Florida reaching the title game, and a few larger pool builds even ride Texas Tech all the way to the final.

From here, things get more nuanced. Some entries will be pulling for Michigan State, others hoping they go down. You might want Alabama and Tennessee to win their next game—but not go much further. And depending on how many contenders in your pool have teams like Ole Miss or Arkansas alive (or don’t), you could find yourself rooting for them just to limit the points anyone else can score.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Elite Eight

Here are the 16 teams still alive, sorted by the difference between the percentage of PoolGenius Best Brackets that have them advancing to the Elite Eight, compared to the public.

• Texas Tech is critical to creating further separation for many of our brackets, as the public was heavier on St. John’s. Very few entries have Arkansas going further. Still, a Texas Tech loss would be a notable missed opportunity to add points versus the typical entry.
• Tennessee vs. Kentucky is a key head-to-head matchup. Our brackets are heavily leveraged on Tennessee, while over 20% of the public would add points with a Kentucky win in the Sweet 16.
• Michigan State is more of a mixed bag, as 39% of Best Brackets and 61% of all PG Brackets have Michigan State advancing. So, there will be varied subscriber interests in this one. A Mississippi win, on the other hand, only helps about 5% of the public.
• Generally speaking, we want the No. 1 seeds to advance since they make up most of our champion and runner-up pick suggestions, and we’re higher than the public on their advancement to the Elite Eight.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Final Four

• We want the No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four in most brackets. Compared to the public, Houston and Auburn offer big leverage opportunities.
• The only really costly public advancements at smaller pool sizes would be No. 2 Michigan State, No. 2 Alabama, and No. 2 Tennessee.
• So, for most entries, a Michigan State, Alabama, or Tennessee loss in the previous round would have the silver lining of eliminating the most dangerous (and popular) opponents for the No. 1 seeds.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Title Game

• Duke to the title game is pretty important for Best Brackets. That softens just a bit when you look at all PG brackets, but Duke is still the single most crucial outcome for most.
• The least preferable outcomes would be for Houston, Michigan State, Tennessee, or Alabama to reach the title game.
• Florida and Auburn are both appearing in the title game in a good number of brackets and at a rate higher than the public.
• We also have a subset of entries at larger sizes that have a Texas Tech run to the title game in play.

The Most Impactful Teams to Win It All

• Duke winning the title would be the most positive outcome for the vast majority of Best Brackets and around half of all brackets.
• Auburn appears above the public pick rate in Best Brackets (usually at mid or larger sizes).
• Florida, Auburn, and Houston all have similar rates in all PG brackets. Houston and Auburn would result in expected better finishes because of Florida’s higher public popularity to win the title.
• A portion of our subscribers using Best Bracket would outperform the public if any of Duke, Auburn, or Texas Tech won the title. (Something our Round Odds currently give a 46.5% chance of collectively happening).
• We are also above the public rate across all brackets (but not Best Brackets) if Houston or Arizona wins the title.
• There are four teams at under 1% and four more at 1% to win the title, so if any of those eight teams do pull off a stunner, there’s a very good chance that no one in a small to mid-sized pool picked them, and the results would come down to which other Final Four teams and finalist an entry hit.
• According to our Round Odds, there’s nearly a 10% chance we end up with an extremely low-picked champion this year, one of the eight remaining that stand at a 1% chance or lower to win the title.