How Often Does a 10 Seed Beat a 7 Seed?

Learn the full history of the 7 vs 10 seed matchup, and what it means for your bracket strategy.

by Spencer Limbach - Feb 22, 2026

A 10-seed beating a 7-seed is one of the more common March Madness upsets, but can we really call it an upset? After all, these teams are usually similar in their at-large bid status, with little separating them. So, how often does a 10 seed beat a 7 seed? The answer might surprise you, especially when compared to other first-round upsets.

How Often Does a 10 Seed Beat a 7 Seed?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 10 seed has a 62-97 record against the 7 seed in the first round.

This means 10 seeds win about 39.0% of the time. 

Notably, that’s nearly identical to the rate at which No. 11 seeds defeat No. 6 seeds, which comes in just slightly lower at 38.8%.

In fact, one of the only differences comes from 2021, when Oregon-VCU was considered a no-contest due to a COVID-19 forfeit.

Has a 10 Seed Ever Made the Final Four?

The farthest a 10 seed has ever advanced in the NCAA Tournament is to the Final Four. It happened only one time:

• 2016: Syracuse (beat Dayton, Middle Tennessee, and Gonzaga before losing to North Carolina)

Several other 10 seeds have reached the Elite Eight and Sweet 16, making this seed line consistently dangerous throughout the tournament.

What Does This Mean For Your 2025 Bracket?

Historical stats are interesting, but they won’t win your pool.

The 10-seed wins nearly 40% of the time. Because of this, many bracket pickers conclude that they should pick one or two 10-seeds to win in the first round.

But which team should you choose? And how far should that 10-seed go?

Smart bracket strategy isn’t about making picks based on historical data; it’s about knowing when to go against the crowd and when to stick with favorites. It’s about knowing which March Madness upsets are worth it, and when to hold off.

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