How Often Does an 11 Seed Beat a 6 Seed?

Check out the full NCAA Tournament 11 vs. 6 seed history along with how many times an 11 seed has made the Final Four.

by Spencer Limbach - Feb 22, 2026

Check out the complete 11 vs 6 seed history in this first-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament. How many 11 seeds have gone on to make the Final Four? Has an 11-seed ever won March Madness? Let’s run through the numbers below and explain what they mean for your bracket-picking strategy.

How Often Does an 11 Seed Beat a 6 Seed?

The 11 seed has pulled off upsets against 6 seeds at a rate of 38.8% since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Overall, the 11 seed has a 62-98 record against 6 seeds. That averages to 1.55 wins per tournament (out of 4 matchups).

Recent 11 vs. 6 Seed History

Over the past four years, No. 11 seeds have held their own in the First Round, posting an 8-8 record against No. 6 seeds. Looking at a larger sample, 11-seeds have won 52.8% of the time (19-17) over the last nine tournaments.

Here’s a breakdown of each year and how often 11-seeds pulled off the upset:

• 2025: One time – Drake over Missouri
• 2024: Three times – NC State over Texas Tech, Oregon over South Carolina, Duquesne over BYU
• 2023: One time – Pittsburgh over Iowa State
• 2022: Three times – Notre Dame over Alabama, Michigan over Colorado State, Iowa State over LSU
• 2021: Two times – Syracuse over San Diego State, UCLA over BYU
• 2019: One time – Ohio State over Iowa State
• 2018: Two times – Loyola Chicago over Miami, Syracuse over TCU,
• 2017: Three times – Rhode Island over Creighton, USC over SMU, Xavier over Maryland
• 2016: Three times – Gonzaga over Seton Hall, Northern Iowa over Texas, Wichita State over Arizona

How Many 11 Seeds Have Made the Final Four?

A remarkable six 11 seeds have reached the Final Four in NCAA Tournament history, making them the lowest seed to appear in the national semifinals multiple times:

• 2024: North Carolina State (defeated Duke in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Purdue)
• 2021: UCLA (defeated Michigan in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Gonzaga)
• 2018: Loyola Chicago (defeated Kansas State in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Michigan)
• 2011: VCU (defeated Kansas in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Butler)
• 2006: George Mason (defeated Connecticut in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Florida)
• 1986: LSU (defeated Kentucky in Elite Eight, lost in Final Four to Louisville)

Has an 11 Seed Ever Won March Madness?

Despite their surprising success in reaching the Final Four, no 11 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament. All six 11 seeds that reached the Final Four lost in the national semifinals, falling short of advancing to the championship game.

The lowest seed to ever win the NCAA Tournament is an 8 seed (Villanova in 1985), followed by a 7 seed (Connecticut in 2014).

What Does This Mean For Your Bracket?

Historical trends are interesting, but they don’t tell the whole story—especially when it comes to your bracket strategy.

Simply following past results without considering how others in your pool are picking can limit your chances of winning.

• Not all 6-seeds are created equal: some are more vulnerable than others.
• Not all 11-seeds are smart underdog picks: if the public is overloading on a trendy upset, you might be better off zagging.
• Historical percentages don’t win pools: strategy does.

That’s where the PoolGenius NCAA Bracket Picks Optimizer comes in.

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Since 2017, PoolGenius users have optimized their NCAA bracket picks and reported over $2.8 million in winnings.

So, why guess when there’s a PROVEN way to make smarter NCAA Bracket Picks?