Top 4 March Madness Upset Predictions for the First Round

Find the best first-round March Madness upset predictions using public pick data and win probabilities to gain an edge in your 2026 bracket.

by Team Rankings - Mar 18, 2026

When looking for March Madness upset predictions in your bracket, it’s not about guessing or picking seeds based on historical upsets (like the often-talked-about No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed upset).

The biggest edges in bracket pools come when a team’s actual chances of winning are higher than how often people are picking them.

That’s what we are looking for in our NCAA Tournament upset picks, or any “value pick” in our bracket here at PoolGenius.

And it’s what we’ll run through below, with exclusive data from our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool.

March Madness Upset Predictions: How to Find Value Picks

Most people approach March Madness upsets the wrong way.

They look for big underdogs and try to predict chaos.

But in reality, the best upset picks usually come from identifying gaps between perception and probability — especially in games where the public is overconfident in one side.

That’s where public pick data becomes critical, and we have it in our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool.

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Best First-Round March Madness Upsets in 2026

This might not be a big year for classic 12-over-5 upsets. Most No. 5 seeds opened as sizable favorites (8.5 points or more) against their No. 12 opponents.

That shifts some of the best bracket First-Round value to 8-9 and 7-10 matchups, where the public tends to over-rely on the higher seed.

Quick note on terminology: we count any higher seed beating a lower seed as an upset, including a No. 9 over a No. 8. We do this because bracket scoring systems often use seed-differential scoring or upset bonuses as incentives.

Below are four first-round games where the numbers suggest the public may be missing something.

No. 9 Utah State over No. 8 Villanova

Odds to win: 57%
Public pick rate: 45%

Utah State enters the tournament as one of the stronger No. 9 seeds in the field.

The Aggies are driven by their experienced backcourt, particularly wings Mason Falsev and MJ Collins, who combine to average nearly 34 points per game and can score both inside and from the perimeter.

Meanwhile, Villanova is dealing with a major late-season injury after losing Matthew Hodge to a torn ACL at the end of February.

The Wildcats rely heavily on half-court execution and stability, but their form dipped late in the season after that injury, culminating in a disappointing loss in the Big East Tournament.

With Utah State projected to win the game more than half the time but being picked in fewer than half of brackets, this matchup offers one of the clearest value spots in the Round of 64.

No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami

Odds to win: 50%
Public pick rate: 40%

Missouri looks like a different team than it did early in the season.

After injuries disrupted the lineup in non-conference play, the Tigers finally settled into a more stable rotation in January, including the return of Trent Pierce and the emergence of transfer Jayden Stone as a starter.

Since that lineup came together, Missouri has played much better than earlier in the year.

Miami, meanwhile, rebuilt its roster under first-year coach Jai Lucas and has relied heavily on frontcourt scoring and rebounding rather than perimeter shooting.

While this matchup projects as essentially a coin flip, the public is leaning toward Miami — creating a solid opportunity for bracket players willing to take an under-picked Missouri side. 

Want to know if these upsets make sense in your pool? Enter your pool size and scoring rules into our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool and get a personalized answer.

No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina

Odds to win: 43%
Public pick rate: 28%

VCU is one of the most under-picked teams in the entire First Round.

The Rams enter the tournament having won 16 of their last 17 games, relying on an aggressive defensive style that forces turnovers and controls the paint.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has been dealing with major injury issues. Star freshman Caleb Wilson suffered a fractured hand in February and then broke his thumb while preparing to return, ending his season.

Without Wilson, North Carolina has played noticeably worse down the stretch and has shortened its rotation.

The Tar Heels still defend the interior well due to their length, but they don’t force many turnovers, which could allow VCU to stay comfortable in its offensive sets.

With the Rams being picked in fewer than 30% of brackets despite having a legitimate chance to win, this is one of the strongest First-Round upset opportunities.

No. 11 Texas over No. 6 BYU

Odds to win: 37%
Public pick rate: 20%

Texas pulled off a thrilling First Four win over NC State on Wednesday and now turns around to face BYU in Portland on Thursday.

BYU has one of the most efficient offenses in the tournament and plays at an up-tempo pace that can overwhelm opponents when shots are falling.

But the Cougars’ defense has been less convincing, and they lost their top outside shooter, Richie Saunders, late in the season.

Texas brings one of the most efficient offenses in the country and strong rebounding, though defensive inconsistency has been an issue.

Plus, the Longhorns have the advantage of already playing an NCAA Tournament game — something that has historically helped play-in winners outperform expectations.

Want to Know if These Upsets Make Sense in Your Pool?

Simply enter your pool size and scoring rules into our NCAA Bracket Picks Tool, and it will show you which upsets make sense (plus guide you through every round) depending on those details.

Plus, upsets don’t stop after the first round. Some of the biggest edges in bracket pools appear later in the tournament, and we already see teams outside the top seed lines with surprisingly strong paths to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, and beyond.