Do Play-In Teams Win More First Round Games Than Expected?

Do First Four teams have an edge in March Madness? We break down the numbers and smartest approach for your bracket.

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, it introduced what we now know as the First Four. These are essentially play-in games where teams battle for the right to enter the main bracket. However, some of these teams have gone on to make a splash in the Field of 64, begging the question of whether play-in teams exceed expectations in March Madness overall.

The Surprising Success of First Four Teams

This analysis focuses mainly on the at-large First Four teams (not the 16-seeds playing for the right to face a 1-seed). So, when we refer to an at-large First Four team, we are talking about the No. 10 through No. 14 seeds that won the play-in games to advance to the main tournament.

Digging through the data, the numbers tell an interesting story:

• In 12 of the 13 tournaments since expansion (all except 2019), at least one First Four team has advanced past the First Round
• 12 of the 26 First Four at-large winners (46.1%) won their First Round game
• 5 of these teams reached the Sweet 16
• 2 teams made the Elite Eight
• 2 teams reached the Final Four (VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021, both as 11-seeds)

The bottom line: First Four at-large teams have a 46.1% First Round win rate—well above expectations. For comparison, 11 seeds win 39.1% and 12 seeds win 35.3% historically.

Why Do First Four Winners Overperform?

Most point to momentum and experience—winning on the NCAA stage builds confidence, and getting the jitters out early helps. Maybe there’s something to that.

But there’s a downside—travel and fatigue. First Four teams play a high-pressure game in Dayton, then travel and play again two days later. That’s a tough turnaround.

So, is it an edge or a disadvantage? It depends. Each First Four winner should be evaluated individually based on matchups, travel, and team strength.

Should This Influence Your Bracket Strategy?

While the data suggests First Four at-large winners might be worth considering for first-round upsets, smart bracket strategy requires more nuance than simply following historical trends.

Every matchup is unique, and team quality varies significantly from year to year. Some First Four winners might enter as favorites against higher seeds, while others remain significant underdogs despite their play-in victory.

The Smarter Approach to Bracket Picks

Rather than applying blanket strategies based on seed numbers or play-in status, the optimal approach involves:

1. Use objective metrics to assess team strength.
2. Check betting markets and team ratings for win probability.
3. Identify value by analyzing public pick trends.
4. Adjust strategy based on pool size and scoring.

This data-driven approach tailors bracket strategy specific to each tournament, giving you the best shot at winning your pool.

That’s why PoolGenius built the NCAA Bracket Picks Optimizer—it does the heavy lifting for you, removing the guesswork. Users have won $2.5M in pools since 2017, with 52% claiming a prize each year on average.

It’s your ultimate bracket cheat sheet.