Madness Myths: It’s All Random

There are some bracket advice columns that tell you it's all random when it comes to winning your pools. Don't listen to them.

There is a lot of bad bracket-picking advice out there, but there’s one in particular that takes the cake. It’s the nihilist view that nothing matters; it’s all random, and you should pick teams however you want and then eat at Arby’s.

The mythology of the random person who wins the pool by picking teams based on mascot, uniform color, or flipping coins is powerful. Does this happen sometimes, especially in large pools and in crazy years? Sure, it can happen (if they are still flipping a coin loaded toward favorites). However, those with knowledge, information, and a strategy edge over time can outperform the typical player. Our history and existence as a business are testaments to that.

We couldn’t do this if everything were truly random.

Why the “It’s All Random” Mindset Is Flawed

Lest you think we are attacking straw men here if you run a Google search for “Bracket Advice,” the top results you will generate include the following “advice”:

• “There is no use in putting any thought into your March Madness bracket.” (source)
• “Instead of pretending like you have any idea, this year just give in to reality and admit that literally no one can account for the randomness inherent in 67 basketball games played out among teams that likely have not faced each other before …” (source)
• “There is no wrong way to fill out your bracket — every pick is a personal journey that’s yours and yours alone.” (source)

You want other people to pick brackets based on a personal journey. But you also want to recognize that despite March’s madness, it is certainly not random.

March Madness: Predictable Patterns Behind the Chaos

Do upsets happen? Sure they do. However, the results of the NCAA Tournament are not random. Here are some notes:

• Of the 14 national champions since 2010, 10 were No. 1 Seeds entering the tournament, and another was a highly rated No. 2 Seed. Another was a No. 3 Seed coming off a major conference tournament win. In 2023, a lowly No. 4 seed, Connecticut was in our top 6 overall in power rankings entering the tournament and under-seeded.
• Only one team (Connecticut in 2014 as a No. 7 seed) that won a title was a true Cinderella. Getting your title game pick right is the most important choice in most bracket pool scoring systems.
• Half (28 of 56) of all Final Four teams since 2010 were either No. 1 or No. 2 Seeds. In comparison, they make up under 12% of the teams in the tournament field.
• In the last seven tournaments, the better-seeded team in a matchup won 70% of the time (262-111).
• There were only 29 (out of a possible 224) upsets by a team seeded No. 13 or worse in the first round since 2010.

We could continue to dispel the notion that the tournament is random. Big upsets stand out in the mind, but they do not happen that frequently. Most of the top teams advance and a lot of the perception about upsets is from games where the teams are closer in quality.

The truth is, most people who pick brackets pick far too many upsets and treat it as more random than it should be.

No sport is entirely predictable. But that doesn’t mean it is random. You can give yourself an advantage by having better information and strategy.

Our Record Proves Results Are Not Random

Every year, we ask our subscribers to share their pool results, good or bad. While individual subscribers’ specific results may vary, the overall numbers show that our recommendations continually outperform what a random contestant in a March Madness pool should achieve.

You can see the analysis of how our picks did in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. Over that span, about 52 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a prize in at least one bracket pool annually. Those results would not be possible if this were a futile exercise in randomness.

But those results are partly possible because there is so much bad bracket advice out there. The fact that the public continues to get bad advice, at least, does not seem to be random and unpredictable at all.