Bracket Scoring Systems: Why They Matter & How to Exploit Them

Winning a bracket pool often requires adapting to different bracket scoring systems. We look at common types and key strategies.

March Madness bracket scoring systems should absolutely drive your strategy. That is, if you want a chance to win your bracket pool (and we assume you do).

As a real-world example, the “small ball” revolution has led to dramatic changes in basketball. Take a look at this chart from Kirk Goldsberry, the author of “Sprawlball,” which illustrates the changes in shooting attempts in the NBA over the last twenty years.

The game has changed. pic.twitter.com/Bqh4swKxCN

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) January 14, 2020

We’ve seen teams like the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets change how the game is played. If you are a team going to go down and post up the center and throw it in for a contested two, you will quickly find yourself trailing. Teams changed their approach. Now, it’s all three-pointers and shots near the rim.

If you want to dominate March Madness bracket pools, you need to take a page out of their playbook and adapt your strategy.

Your Strategy Starts with the Bracket Scoring System

What’s a big reason behind the “small ball” success in the NBA?

Smart front offices that:

• Analyzed historical NBA data
• Identified an edge from shooting more 3-pointers
• Shifted their personnel and coaching strategies to exploit that edge

In short, these outperforming teams optimized their game for the current NBA scoring system. They objectively evaluated the rules of the contest at a deep level and figured out how to exploit them.

This post will show how to apply similar logic to your NCAA Tournament bracket pools this year and explore the dynamics of some of the more popular bracket pool scoring systems.

Why March Madness Bracket Scoring Matters

Most NCAA bracket players overlook the impact of their pool’s scoring system, which can be a costly mistake.

Let’s take an example:

• Imagine you’re in the middle of picking the first-round games in your 2025 NCAA bracket.
• Next is a game between a No. 6 seed and a No. 11 seed.
• Using our NCAA Bracket Picks product, you can quickly pull up the latest odds and predictions.
• The odds give the No. 6 seed a 60% chance to win the game.
• The No. 6 seed is favored to win by 4 points.

So, what’s the optimal play? Which team should you pick to maximize the score in your bracket pool?

It’s a trick question, of course. The correct answer depends on several things, one of which is your bracket scoring system.

Let’s break down the scenarios below.

Case 1: Don’t Pick The Upset!

In many popular scoring systems, the first-round games mean very little compared to later-round games.

In the most popular bracket scoring system, for instance, getting your NCAA champion pick correct is worth 32 times the value of getting a first-round pick correct.

In these bracket scoring systems, an early upset pick that doesn’t go your way could bite you if you’re not careful.

Weighing Risk vs. Reward

Imagine a scenario like this:

• The No. 6 seed is a decent favorite to win the game (as we stated earlier).
• The No. 6 seed is also from the state where most of your pool opponents live. So that team is likely to be a popular pick in your pool.
• If the No. 6 seed wins its first-round game, the opponent it will face in the second round is probably the No. 3 seed in its region.
• However, this year, that No. 3 seed is the weakest No. 3 seed in the tournament.

Add it all up, and an upset pick here probably isn’t a wise move in a more traditional bracket pool scoring system. The risks outweigh the rewards.

The Reward (Good Outcome)

A good outcome (you pick the No. 11 seed, and they win) might only earn you one measly point in many March Madness bracket scoring systems.

The odds are that you’d have the No. 11 seed losing in the second round, so there wouldn’t be any possible upside beyond that.

The Risk (Bad Outcome)

However, a bad outcome looks like this:

• You pick the No. 11 seed.
• The No. 6 seed wins, then beats the weak No. 3 seed in the second round and makes the Sweet 16.
• Since the No. 6 seed was a popular pick, lots of your opponents earn multiple points from those two wins, but you don’t earn any points.

A result like that probably won’t completely crush your odds of winning your pool. In a more traditional scoring system where later-round picks are worth a lot, you could still make up points in the future.

However, it could have a significant negative impact on your prize-winning chances.

Case 2: Pick The Upset!

On the other hand, some pools use very “flat” scoring systems, where correctly predicting first-round games is worth much more relative to later-round picks.

Maybe getting the NCAA champion pick right is only worth six times as much as a first-round game — or perhaps it’s even worth the same number of points. Many customers of our NCAA bracket advice play in pools like these.

In these bracket scoring systems, picking the No. 11 seed to win could be a great decision with significant expected value.

Risk vs. Reward Again

After all, the risk involved isn’t terrible. You’ve got a decent shot (4-in-10) to get the upset pick right.

The reward could be pretty significant, especially if:

• Your scoring system more heavily weights early-round games
• You expect the No. 11 seed to be unpopular in your pool.
• You would have the No. 6 seed losing in the next round anyway.

How Bracket Scoring Systems Impact Your Odds to Win

Besides influencing your optimal game-by-game pick decisions, there’s another angle to bracket pool scoring systems that nobody ever talks about.

Before you’ve even picked a game, your bracket contest’s scoring system has already impacted the chance of winning your pool.

Choose Your Scoring System Wisely

Every March, you usually have a choice of at least a few bracket pools to enter if you look hard enough.

Because bracket pools are such great investments, we’d suggest you enter as many bracket contests as possible if you have the means. But let’s assume you have to pick and choose.

When faced with a choice, smart bracket pickers can stack the odds in their favor simply by entering pools with scoring systems that give them better chances to win.

The Impact of Luck and Skill

In short, the specifics of a given scoring system can:

• Enable luck to potentially play a huge role in the final pool outcome, thus leveling the playing field between basketball neophytes and algorithm-wielding number crunchers like us (and, by extension, our customers)
• Emphasize overall skill at picking many games right, thus giving “sharp” players a big edge and making it far less likely that a casual entrant will win the pool.
• Encourage participants to take significant risks with their picks or play it safe, which impacts the likelihood of big swings in the standings as the tournament continues.

So, if you’re playing in a bracket pool this year, choose one with a scoring system that aligns with your assessment of your bracket-picking skill level. All else being equal:

• If you’re an excellent bracket picker, try to enter a pool whose scoring system limits the potential impact of luck.
• If you’re clueless about college basketball (and aren’t going to pay for our advice to level-up to expert status), try to enter a pool with a scoring system in which luck can play a bigger role.

Round-Based Bracket Scoring: Options and Implications

Let’s dive into some specific scoring systems, review their implications, and compare how they emphasize luck vs. skill.

Our subscribers used our NCAA Bracket Picks product to create optimized brackets and multi-bracket portfolios for over 500 unique pool scoring systems.

As you might imagine, these scoring systems ranged from straightforward to complex to downright insane.

While we can’t possibly analyze the implications of all of them in a blog post (we’ve designed technology to do that for us), we’ll go over a few of the most popular options for round-based point values.

Note: The numbers in bold below represent the points you get for picking a game right by round, starting with the first round and ending with the NCAA tournament champion.

Most Popular Scoring: 1-2-4-8-16-32

This is the most popular bracket contest scoring system, used in roughly 65% of the pools that our customers enter.

There’s a certain simple logic to it, which is probably one of the reasons why it’s so popular. The points earned for correctly picking a team to advance doubles each round, and the total value of points available in each round remains constant at 32.

What most people don’t realize about this system is the very high leverage associated with correctly predicting later-round picks.

The difference between a fantastic first round (let’s say getting 30 of 32 picks correct, which rarely happens) and a bad one (let’s say getting 14 of 32 right) equates to a difference of 16 points in the pool standings.

Simply getting your NCAA champion pick correct in this scoring system is worth double that difference — 32 points. That one final pick could make up for a horrible first and/or second round.

Best Bracket Scoring System For Beginners

Now consider this: In the first round, a poor performance still nets you some points, but what you earn from your NCAA champion round pick is an entirely binary outcome.

A great NCAA champion pick in 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring earns you 32 points. Anything else nets you zero.

That particular dynamic opens the door for luck to make a significant impact. Picking lots of tournament games correctly indicates skill, but getting a single NCAA finalist or champion pick right in a specific year depends much more on luck.

Even the best teams in recent memory, like 2015 Kentucky, which was undefeated going into the NCAA tournament, had less than a 50/50 chance of winning it all.

As a result, the 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring system is one of the more forgiving systems for basketball neophytes.

There are still plenty of ways for sharp players to get a significant long-term edge, such as using game theory and other approaches, like our bracket picks do.

But if you’re clueless and want at least a fighting chance to win a bracket pool, entering a pool with 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring is a fine enough choice.

ESPN Bracket Scoring System: 10-20-40-80-160-320

For whatever reason, ESPN’s bracket scoring system uses these point values instead of 1-2-4-8-16-32.

It’s the same as 1-2-4-8-16-32. Multiplying all the round values by 10 doesn’t impact the competitive dynamic, optimal picking strategy, or relative potential impact of skill vs. luck.

Second-Most Popular Scoring System: 1-2-3-4-5-6

According to our customer data, this is the second most popular round-based scoring system, used in around 3% of our customer pools.

Yes, roughly 3% popularity was the next most common system after the 65% of pools using 1-2-4-8-16-32. There’s a massive variety of round-based point structures in use, with no single one besides 1-2-4-8-16-32 being super popular.

The immediately noticeable difference between this 1-2-3-4-5-6 scoring and the standard 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring is the significantly reduced point values of the late-round picks:

• In 1-2-3-4-5-6 scoring, 32 points are up for grabs in the first two rounds, and then the points available per round drop quickly.
• The NCAA champion pick is only worth 5% of the total available points in the pool, compared to nearly 17% in 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring.
• Getting two Final Four picks right is worth more than getting your NCAA champion pick correct, while in 1-2-4-8-16-32, it’s worth half as much.

This system is nice for emphasizing picking skill through the first two rounds while still valuing Sweet 16 winners moderately.

If you’re not in great shape by the Elite 8, it becomes very difficult to leapfrog many opponents in the standings with a lucky late-round pick or two.

This scoring system is tougher on beginners than the 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring. Speaking to that point, this scoring system benefits “sharp” pickers more.

Flat Bracket Scoring System: 1-1-1-1-1-1

Want to minimize the role of luck in your pool’s outcome and all but guarantee that your pool’s top finishers are solidified by the Elite 8?

In this structure, over 83% of available points are up for grabs in the first three rounds. And unlike 1-2-4-8-16-32 and 1-2-3-4-5-6 scoring, the total points available per round decreases with each successful round.

In fact, the action-packed 32-game first round is worth more than all other tournament rounds combined!

Consequently, overall picking accuracy in the early rounds is all that matters in this scoring structure, and the results of a few very closely matched first-round games are likely to impact the pool’s outcome significantly.

When it comes to round-based scoring, you could argue that this is the best bracket scoring system for “sharp” pickers. Participants who aren’t sophisticated enough to look beyond seed numbers and jersey colors to pick winners will be disadvantaged.

On that note, it can be a fun scoring system for a pool filled with skilled players since the ability to identify subtle matchup advantages in early-round games expected to be close could make all the difference in the final standings.

Fibonacci Scoring: 2-3-5-8-13-21

This scoring system, also known as “Fibonacci,” was named after the badass 13th-century Italian mathematician who introduced the numerical sequence to Western European mathematics.

The concept here is that each round value is worth the sum of the previous two. That progression modestly decreases the relative value of late-round picks compared to traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring, but the altered ratios of round-to-round values also have other effects.

With 64 points up for grabs in the first round, the opening two days of the tournament are the most important in Fibonacci, but the next three rounds still offer good opportunities to distance your bracket from the pack.

As in the 1-1-1-1-1-1 system, available points decrease in every round, but the value decay here is much more gradual, so randomness will more frequently impact the pool’s final standings — just not as often as it does in traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32.

If you like the concept of rewarding late-round pick accuracy to some degree but want to focus the pool more on early-round performance, Fibonacci is a good option.

Custom Bracket Scoring: 2-3-5-7-10-50

Here’s one of the random ones we picked from our customer pool details database.

It’s not too different from Fibonacci, but it has even more randomness, thanks to the much higher point value for the NCAA champion pick. So, compared to Fibonacci, it levels the playing field a bit more between skilled and unskilled players.

The first round remains the most crucial round in terms of points available (64), followed by the NCAA championship (50), and then the second round (48).

Meanwhile, the finalist and Final Four picks are a relative dead zone, so anyone who picks a team that makes the championship game but then doesn’t win it gets screwed. That could lead to some nice participant anguish and subsequent trash-talking.

Compared to traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring, this system demands excellence at the beginning and/or the very end of the bracket but rewards great performance in the early rounds slightly more.

What’s the Best Bracket Scoring System?

The best bracket scoring system depends on your skill level and strategy. If you prefer a simple, forgiving approach, standard scoring (1-2-4-8-16-32) is a solid choice, making it accessible for pickers and fans of all experience levels.

However, if you’re a “sharp picker”, flat-based scoring—especially with upset bonuses—can give you an edge over less experienced players. Those who understand how scoring impacts strategy can maximize their advantage in these formats.

Building an Optimal Strategy for Your Scoring System

As shown in the section below, our Bracket Picks product subscribers perform well across all scoring systems. However, they tend to excel even more in round-based scoring (with upsets) and other non-standard formats.

This is likely due to the information advantage they get from the bracket picks product, which translates to better results in these systems.

Here’s how:

• Customized Picks – Our bracket picks product tailors selections based on your pool size and scoring system.
• Data-Driven Strategy – It combines round-by-round advancement odds, proprietary analysis metrics, and public pick popularity to find the best strategy for your pool.
• Multi-Bracket Support – Enter multiple brackets and get optimized picks for each based on scoring and size.
• Flexible for Any Format – Whether in a standard-scoring league or with wild upset bonuses, you’ll receive picks tailored to maximize your edge.

It’s a powerful way to level up your strategy and maximize your chances of winning a prize in your pool.

PoolGenius Adapts to Different Scoring Systems

If you played all those different bracket scoring systems the same, you would perform worse in some of them. They all have the potential to incentivize different strategies. Upset points, Seed-Based Bonuses, and different point amounts for each round can change what becomes optimal.

This is where PoolGenius’s track record speaks for itself. We ask our members how they did at the end of each year, and our Bracket Picks subscriber results are positive across different types of scoring over the last five years.

• Standard Scoring (1-2-4-8-16-32): Our recommendations won a prize 2.9x more often than expected.
• Seed-Based Scoring: Won 3.3x more than the average entry.
• Round-Based Scoring (including upset bonuses): Our recommendations have won a prize 3.8x more often than expected.
• Other Round-Based Scoring: For all the different variations of round-based scoring, it’s 3.8x more likely than expected.

In some years, the specific results in the NCAA Tournament dictate that our picks in one type of format may do better than another, but we’ll take that range of results across all types of pools.