2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament Round-By-Round Odds and Champion Odds

Our projected odds to advance for all 2024 Women's NCAA Tournament teams, plus the top contender odds to win.

South Carolina will try to win their title in 2024 (John Byrum/Icon Sportswire)

The 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament features South Carolina again trying to go undefeated to win the title. It also has the team that prevented that from happening last year, the Iowa Hawkeyes and Caitlin Clark. Oh, and the defending champion LSU Tigers, who again enter the tournament as a No. 3 seed. They are not, though, even the highest-power rated No. 3 seed in this tournament.

We have projected round-by-round odds for the 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament. These are based on power ratings for each team, with some adjustments for injuries, both past (which could cause us to upgrade a team if they were missing a star player for several games) and present (like three-time ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley of Virginia Tech, who will miss the tournament after tearing her ACL).

Below, we present the odds in each region, sorted in descending order by total average expected wins. Then, we will list out the top contenders, with a comparison of our projected numbers to the betting markets.

Albany 1 Region

Seed	Team	Expected Wins	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ Game	Winner
1	South Carolina	4.81	100%	95%	89%	79%	65%	53%
2	Notre Dame	2.64	99%	84%	60%	12%	6%	3%
3	Oregon State	1.87	94%	64%	25%	3%	1%	0%
4	Indiana	1.75	95%	68%	7%	4%	1%	0%
5	Oklahoma	1.06	76%	27%	2%	1%	0%	0%
6	Nebraska	0.79	54%	20%	5%	0%	0%	0%
9	Michigan State	0.76	69%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
7	Mississippi	0.70	56%	10%	4%	0%	0%	0%
11	Texas A&M	0.64	46%	15%	3%	0%	0%	0%
10	Marquette	0.52	44%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%
8	North Carolina	0.32	31%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Fla Gulf Coast	0.28	24%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	E. Washington	0.07	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	Fairfield	0.06	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
15	Kent State	0.01	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
16	Presbyterian	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

South Carolina, not surprisingly, is the favorite, with a 79% chance of reaching the Final Four.
The next three seeds are in a clear tier above the others, and then there’s a large middle class.

Portland 4 Region

Seed	Team	Expected Wins	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ Game	Winner
1	Texas	3.24	100%	90%	68%	44%	14%	8%
2	Stanford	2.86	100%	85%	59%	30%	8%	4%
3	NC State	2.04	98%	66%	27%	10%	2%	1%
4	Gonzaga	1.64	97%	48%	13%	5%	1%	0%
5	Utah	1.62	88%	50%	16%	7%	1%	0%
6	Tennessee	1.20	78%	30%	9%	3%	0%	0%
7	Iowa State	0.66	53%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
8	Alabama	0.64	56%	6%	2%	0%	0%	0%
10	Maryland	0.56	47%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%
9	Florida State	0.49	44%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%
11	Wisc-GB	0.25	22%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	So. Dakota St.	0.14	12%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	UC-Irvine	0.03	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	Chattanooga	0.02	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
15	Norfolk State	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
16	Drexel	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Texas and Stanford are the clear top of this Region, and if they play it should be a fantastic matchup.
The No. 3 to No. 6 range in this region is pretty balanced. Tennessee is likely better than their raw power rating due to some key past injuries, and we just saw them nearly knock of South Carolina in the SEC Tournament.

Albany 2 Region

Seed	Team	Expected Wins	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ Game	Winner
1	Iowa	3.01	100%	81%	57%	33%	22%	8%
2	UCLA	2.89	100%	87%	51%	28%	17%	6%
3	LSU	2.64	99%	83%	43%	22%	13%	4%
4	Kansas State	2.00	98%	62%	24%	10%	5%	1%
5	Colorado	1.42	89%	37%	11%	4%	1%	0%
8	West Virginia	0.96	78%	18%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6	Louisville	0.86	69%	14%	3%	0%	0%	0%
7	Creighton	0.64	54%	8%	2%	0%	0%	0%
10	UNLV	0.53	46%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0%
11	Middle Tenn	0.34	31%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%
9	Princeton	0.23	22%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
12	Drake	0.12	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
13	Portland	0.02	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	Rice	0.01	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
15	Cal Baptist	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
16	Holy Cross	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

This region is loaded, with both finalists last year, to go with No. 2 UCLA, and all three have 2.6 or more expected wins.
Kansas State is a potentially dangerous No. 4 seed, as their average rating is pulled down by missing games by star center Ayoka Lee.

Portland 3 Region

Seed	Team	Expected Wins	Round 2	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final 4	Champ Game	Winner
3	Connecticut	3.07	99%	88%	56%	39%	19%	6%
1	USC	2.69	100%	82%	54%	23%	8%	2%
2	Ohio State	2.34	99%	71%	33%	21%	8%	2%
5	Baylor	1.85	82%	61%	29%	10%	3%	0%
7	Duke	1.26	84%	28%	9%	4%	1%	0%
4	Virginia Tech	1.16	77%	28%	9%	2%	0%	0%
8	Kansas	0.72	56%	11%	4%	1%	0%	0%
11	Arizona	0.66	56%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%
9	Michigan	0.53	44%	7%	2%	0%	0%	0%
6	Syracuse	0.49	44%	4%	1%	0%	0%	0%
12	Vanderbilt	0.27	18%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0%
13	Marshall	0.27	23%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%
10	Richmond	0.17	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
15	Maine	0.01	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
14	Jackson St.	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
16	Tx A&M-CC	0.00	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

This is the only region where the No. 1 seed does not lead in expected wins, as No. 3 Connecticut comes out on top.
We did lower Connecticut’s rating a fair amount based on blowout inflation, as they did perform notably worse against the handful of top teams they faced in the regular season.
No. 5 Baylor’s projection benefits by being in the same quadrant at Virginia Tech, dealing with losing Elizabeth Kitley.
No. 7 Duke is the only other team seeded outside the top 5 seed lines (besides Tennessee) to have more than 1.0 expected wins.

Top 2024 Women’s Title Contender Projections

Here are the top 12 in odds to win the title in our simulations. We also list the title odds posted at FanDuel for comparison to our numbers. We offer these because the Women’s odds may be driven by factors we are not accounting for, though some (since title odds offerings in both Men’s and Women’s are one-way betting markets) may also be priced up based on popularity and notoriety, compared to this season’s numbers.