2024 NCAA College Basketball Bracket Predictions: Selection Sunday (FINAL)

Selection Sunday is here. It has been quite the wild week to get here, one unlike any we have seen in recent memory.

In this article, we have been providing our projections for the 2024 NCAA men’s college basketball tournament over the last month, and the final one is finally here.

Well, we say final, but there are five games today. Two of them could change which auto bid is seeded where among the teams in the bottom quadrant of seeding. We’ll outline what those are, and change the bracket if upsets occur (we currently have the favorites projected into the bracket).

NCAA Tournament Final Bracket Prediction, March 17th

Here is our final* projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 16th. (*subject to swapping teams based on the auto bid results in the Ivy League and American Conference Championship Games.)

 

The only changes that will be made to the bracket are as follows:

• UAB is now projected as the American Conference winner and slotted as the last 12 seed. If Temple were to win, they would slot into the 14 seed line, while Oakland would move from a 14 seed to 13 seed, and Samford would move to the final 12 seed slot.
• Yale is projected as the Ivy winner now, after Brown upset Princeton yesterday, and is on the 13 seed line. If Brown were to also upset Yale, Brown would slot into the 15 seed line, Western Kentucky would move up to a 14 seed, and Oakland would move from a 14 seed to a 13 seed.
• If both Brown and Temple were to win, Akron (along with Oakland) would also shift from a 14 seed to a 13 seed.

The VCU/Duquesne winner projects similarly for seeding purposes, so if Duquesne wins the Atlantic 10 Final instead of VCU, those teams will be swapped directly.

Here is the full seed list, 1-68, used to create the bracket:

Seed	Overall	Team
1	1	Connecticut
1	2	Purdue
1	3	Houston
1	4	North Carolina
2	5	Iowa State
2	6	Tennessee
2	7	Arizona
2	8	Marquette
3	9	Creighton
3	10	Baylor
3	11	Kansas
3	12	Illinois
4	13	Duke
4	14	Kentucky
4	15	Auburn
4	16	BYU
5	17	Alabama
5	18	Wisconsin
5	19	South Carolina
5	20	San Diego State
6	21	Texas Tech
6	22	Florida
6	23	Saint Mary's
6	24	Utah State
7	25	Gonzaga
7	26	Clemson
7	27	Washington State
7	28	Nevada
8	29	Boise State
8	30	Texas
8	31	Dayton
8	32	Nebraska
9	33	New Mexico
9	34	Colorado State
9	35	TCU
9	36	Florida Atlantic
10	37	Mississippi State
10	38	Northwestern
10	39	Colorado
10	40	Texas A&M
10	41	St. John's
10	42	Michigan State
11	43	Drake
11	44	Oregon
11	45	NC State
11	46	James Madison
12	47	Grand Canyon
12	48	McNeese State
12	49	Duquesne
12	50	Samford
13	51	UAB or Temple
13	52	Yale
13	53	Vermont
13	54	Charleston
14	55	Oakland
14	56	Akron
14	57	Morehead State
14	58	Colgate
15	59	Western Kentucky
15	60	South Dakota St.
15	61	Long Beach State
15	62	St. Peter's
16	63	Longwood
16	64	Stetson
16	65	Montana State
16	66	Howard
16	67	Wagner
16	68	Grambling

Final Bubble Comments

Saturday was an absolutely bonkers day, following a Friday that was chaotic. The net result is a year unlike any we have seen.

Three teams entered Saturday with a chance to grab an auto bid, pushing another team from their conference into an at-large slot, and knocking out a team on the bubble. All three won. A fourth, New Mexico, was still reasonably close enough to the bubble that their situation might also have been in doubt. They also won.

So the cut line changed dramatically, to the point that the Dayton play-in games are both projected for the 10 seed line. Teams that we thought were just out and had a debatable case entering Saturday are now much further down the list and long shots. Teams that would ordinarily be locks with their profile are now very much in doubt.

We had our bubble list yesterday. While none of the teams that were already listed out moved up, we did take a closer look at the last six or so candidates, just as the committee was no doubt doing late into the night last night.

We had four teams on the 11 seed line yesterday morning (other than auto bids Drake and now New Mexico) and Oklahoma as the final 10 seed, and said they were the start of teams that were seriously in question. After review this morning, we are putting Oklahoma out, keeping Michigan State and St. John’s in, and also dropping Seton Hall and Virginia from among teams projected in yesterday.

Why Oklahoma?

It comes down to this, as every team in this range has warts, and is debatable: we think they now bear a resemblance to some of the biggest “surprises” at the bubble and have a lot of factors that a committee could distinguish them on.

Teams that have missed, when inside the Top 50 in the NET (or RPI before that), have done so with a well under .500 record against the top two Quadrants. Oklahoma has had plenty of opportunities, 16 total Quad 1 games, and is 4-12. Two of those wins are in OT at Cincinnati, and then at Kansas State. Despite so many opportunities, they have only two wins against teams actually projected in the field.

You could say the same largely about Michigan State (3-9 against Quad 1) and St. John’s (4-10). But that means this isn’t an apples-to-oranges comparison like Indiana State would be. It’s more like Honey Crisp vs. Pink Lady.

If we go microscope, on things that shouldn’t decide teams far apart in resume but could break ties:

• Oklahoma has by far the worst non-conf SOS of the group, and played zero true road games (we’ve seen past committees make examples of this)
• Oklahoma is rated easily the lowest of the three in advanced metrics
• While “Last 10” is not an official criteria anymore, Oklahoma is 2-6 in the last eight, with both wins coming in OT. The committee would have just watched Michigan State and St. John’s play competitively throughout against No. 1 seeds this week. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has several injury concerns, with two players missing the last game against TCU.

Losing close or not and advanced metrics shouldn’t be used to make big decisions, but for two teams that are equal in other resume factors, the fact that Michigan State ranks much higher, and lost several close games and could with a few plays look much better, is a tiebreaker for us.

Who Could Get In and Left Out?

We think the realistic “who is in or out” is 5 teams from this group of 10: Mississippi State, Colorado, Texas A&M, St. John’s, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Seton Hall, Virginia, Providence, Indiana State.

We have the first 5 listed in and the next 5 out, but it’s going to be a wild day to see where the committee actually ended up.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction, March 16th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 15th.

And if you would rather view it this way, here is the grid by descending seed order across each region.

SEED	EAST (BOSTON)	MIDWEST (DETROIT)	SOUTH (DALLAS)	WEST (LA)
1	Connecticut	Purdue	Houston	North Carolina
2	Iowa State	Marquette	Tennessee	Arizona
3	Duke	Baylor	Creighton	Kansas
4	BYU	Kentucky	Illinois	Auburn
5	Alabama	San Diego State	South Carolina	Texas Tech
6	Wisconsin	Saint Mary's	Utah State	Florida
7	Nevada	Clemson	Washington State	Gonzaga
8	Dayton	Texas	Boise State	Nebraska
9	TCU	Florida Atlantic	Texas A&M	Colorado State
10	Colorado	Mississippi State	Oklahoma	Northwestern
11	New Mexico/St. John's	Drake	Michigan St/Virginia	Seton Hall
12	Grand Canyon	McNeese State	James Madison	Princeton
13	Vermont	Charleston	Samford	VCU
14	Oakland	Akron	Colgate	Morehead State
15	South Dakota State	Western Kentucky	Fairfield	Long Beach State
16	Wagner/Tex Southern	Stetson	Longwood	Montana St/Howard

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Friday was one for the ages. Texas A&M and Mississippi State got the big wins they needed against projected top seeds. Colorado and New Mexico added to their quality wins and reached the finals in the Pac-12 and Mountain West, respectively. St. John’s, Providence, Virginia, and Michigan State all came up short with chances to completely lock things up.

Virginia’s was particularly painful, as they had a free throw to go up 4, and instead missed and NC State hit a banked-in three-pointer at the buzzer to send it to OT. It could be costly for them … or someone else, as NC State is now playing to pull the big upset of North Carolina and get the auto bid.

Here are the 8 teams that we have as the last at-larges in:

• Northwestern (done)
• Mississippi State (playing in SEC semi)
• Oklahoma (done)
• Seton Hall (done)
• Michigan State (done)
• New Mexico (playing in MWC final)
• St. John’s (done)
• Virginia (done)

And here are the first 8 (+1 more bid thief) teams out of the field:

• Providence (done)
• Indiana State (done)
• Pittsburgh (done)
• Kansas State (done)
• Villanova (done)
• Ohio State (done)
• Oregon (playing in Pac-12 final)
• South Florida (playing in AAC semi)
• NC State (playing in ACC final)

Bubble Thoughts on Who Realistically Could Be In or Out

Right now, we’d say we are pretty confident that Colorado, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State all played their way in yesterday, removing any doubt. If you told us anyone from Oklahoma down got cut unexpectedly, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise.

This has been a really strong bubble year, and it’s potentially getting squeezed even further by some unexpected auto bids decreasing the available slots. The first three teams we are showing as out would ordinarily profile as teams with >50% chance to get in. Teams like Oklahoma and Seton Hall generally are safe. But Oklahoma went 4-12 against Quad 1, and has some injury question marks, so if you told me the committee re-evaluated them, it would be at least in play given the dynamics of this year.

And yes, we have Michigan State on the “it wouldn’t surprise us” list, now as an 11 seed, while most seem to have them solidly in. They have 14 losses, and are 9-14 against the top two quadrants. The best wins are Baylor in Detroit, Illinois at home, and then Northwestern at home. The best road/neutral win all year, besides playing in Detroit, is … Penn State? Maryland? Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney? We think Michigan State should be in as one of the top 45 or so teams in the country, and they’ve had a lot of close losses. A team that is just a handful of key plays away from being a No. 5 or 6 seed should be in. But they better hope the committee employs the “eye test,” and didn’t watch the games where they couldn’t shoot from outside.

We would be surprised if anyone below Kansas State on our “OUT” list actually made it as an at-large, and Kansas State would be a mild surprise given the other options.

Bid Thief Breakdown

In total, there are still three “bid thief” situations where a team not projected in our current at-large field could win an auto bid, and knock a team out.

We think New Mexico is in, but they could clarify their own situation by going ahead and winning the automatic bid. The others (with our rough estimates of odds of happening:

• Oregon wins Pac-12 final over Colorado (40%)
• South Florida, Temple, or UAB beat Florida Atlantic to win AAC (30%)
• NC State wins ACC final over North Carolina (20%)

While all three are underdogs to happen, the odds that at least one of those occurs are about 66%, so the bubble shrinking by one spot is more likely than not.

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Friday, March 15th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 14th.

The bubble turned wild, and most of the teams needing a win got one. As a result, there’s still some legitimate doubt as we head to Friday. We’ll break down the bubble below, after we give you the full seed list of projections.

Seed	MIDWEST (DETROIT)	WEST (LA)	EAST (BOSTON)	SOUTH (DALLAS)
1	Purdue	North Carolina	Connecticut	Houston
2	Tennessee	Arizona	Iowa State	Marquette
3	Creighton	Baylor	Kentucky	Duke
4	Kansas	Alabama	Illinois	Auburn
5	San Diego State	Texas Tech	South Carolina	BYU
6	Gonzaga	Saint Mary's	Utah State	Wisconsin
7	Washington State	Nevada	Clemson	Boise State
8	Florida	Florida Atlantic	Texas	Dayton
9	TCU	Nebraska	Colorado State	Northwestern
10	Michigan State	Seton Hall	St. John's	Oklahoma
11	Texas A&M/Virginia	Providence/New Mexico	Colorado	Drake
12	McNeese State	Princeton	Grand Canyon	James Madison
13	UC-Irvine	VCU	Vermont	Samford
14	Akron	Morehead State	Oakland	Charleston
15	Fairfield	Colgate	South Dakota State	Sam Houston State
16	Stetson	Southern/Montana State	Longwood/Wagner	Norfolk State

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

As we head to Friday, eight of the 10 teams we have closest to the bubble, on each side, are still alive and playing. That means plenty of big games. It also means more trouble for someone like Indiana State, who is waiting around after losing last Sunday in the MVC final. The combination of wins has improved the outlook of several teams that were around them, and Dayton’s early loss in the Atlantic-10 insures that league will get two bids and take away an at-large spot.f

We also have several potential bid thief situations to monitor. Anyone but Florida Atlantic winning the American will shrink this further. NC State and Oregon are in the semifinals of their tournaments and need to win it to get in. Multiple teams in the Big Ten are alive that could alter things (Indiana, Ohio State).

Here are the 8 teams that we have as the last at-larges in:

• Michigan State
• St. John’s
• Seton Hall (done)
• Colorado
• Texas A&M
• Virginia
• Providence
• New Mexico

And here are the first 8 teams out of the field:

• Mississippi State
• Indiana State (done)
• Pittsburgh
• Villanova (done)
• Ohio State
• Wake Forest (done)
• Kansas State (done)
• South Florida

You might ask how Mississippi State, which was in the Last Four In all week, is now projected out. Well, the win over LSU is less impactful than Providence beating Creighton, New Mexico beating Boise State, and Colorado (who was just ahead of them) beating Utah. Further, they draw Tennessee. That’s an opportunity to absolutely sealing it, but their chances of doing so are lower than the teams we now project in front of them of adding another victory.

That also applies to Pittsburgh, who has to probably beat North Carolina, another tall task. But they would leap into the field if they did so.

Ohio State is realistically the only other team on the outside now who could move in short of an auto bid. A win over Illinois would continue to add to Ohio State’s resume and they would be right near the bubble line, with wins over Purdue, Michigan State, and Iowa since firing Chris Holtmann, plus a non-conference neutral court win over Alabama.

South Florida realistically has to win the auto bid. They now have no opportunities for additional Quad 1 or 2 wins prior to the title game, and no way to really improve their outlook.

At the other end, Colorado should have locked up the bid with the win over Utah, and everyone above them should be safe. The true “bubble” teams projected in entering Friday are Texas A&M, Virginia, Providence, and New Mexico.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Wednesday, March 13th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 12th.

For one more day, we do not have many adjustments to the bracket. The primary one is St. Mary’s beating Gonzaga for the West Coast Conference title. We had Gonzaga projected as the favorite there. With that result, Gonzaga drops from the No. 6 line, replaced by San Diego State. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s moves from the first No. 8 seed to the No. 7 seed line, with Washington State dropping down for now.

The only other change is that Wagner won the Northeast Conference in unexpected fashion, so they slot into the First Four as a No. 16 seed. The other auto bid winners last night were already projected in the bracket. (All auto bid teams who have clinched a spot are now marked with a “+”.)

We get a lot more tournament-relevant action today, as several teams near the bubble are in action today, including New Mexico, Villanova, TCU, Wake Forest, and Providence.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Tuesday, March 12th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 11th.

This is the calm before the storm in terms of bracket changes. The only change to the Sunday night bracket is the removal of Eastern Washington from the Big Sky after they lost, with Montana going into the Big Sky projected auto bid in their place. All of the other auto bid projections have won so far, and Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s both won, setting up the third showdown in the WCC Final tonight.

 

NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Sunday, March 10th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 10th by 8 pm ET.

If you would prefer, here is a table showing the seeds for each region.

Seed	MIDWEST (DETROIT)	WEST (LOS ANGELES)	SOUTH (DALLAS)	EAST (NEW YORK)
1	Purdue	North Carolina	Houston	Connecticut
2	Tennessee	Arizona	Marquette	Iowa State
3	Creighton	Baylor	Duke	Kentucky
4	Kansas	Alabama	Auburn	Illinois
5	Clemson	BYU	Texas Tech	South Carolina
6	Nevada	Gonzaga	Wisconsin	Utah State
7	Texas	Dayton	San Diego State	Washington State
8	Florida	Boise State	Saint Mary's	Florida Atlantic
9	Seton Hall	Nebraska	Northwestern	Oklahoma
10	St. John's	Michigan State	TCU	Colorado State
11	Drake	Mississippi State	Villanova/Colorado	Virginia
12	Indiana St/Tex A&M	Princeton	James Madison	Grand Canyon
13	UC-Irvine	McNeese State	Samford	Vermont
14	Akron	Morehead State	Charleston	La Tech
15	E. Washington	Colgate	Oakland	Stetson
16	South Dakota State	Southern/Fairfield	Norfolk State	Longwood/Merrimack

Tennessee or North Carolina as the Last No. 1 Seed?

Tennessee surged to the No. 1 line in our Thursday update, and then lost at home to Kentucky to open the door. Arizona refused to enter, losing at USC. But North Carolina won the big rivalry game at Duke, and now it’s a virtual dead heat.

When we say that, we mean it.

• Tennessee is 5th in the NET rankings, while North Carolina is 7th.
• On the other hand, North Carolina is just ahead, at 4th, in Strength of Record, while Tennessee is now 5th, and that has been a decent indicator of some seeding decisions.
• Both teams have seven Quad 1 wins.
• Tennessee is 13-7 against Quads 1+2, while North Carolina is 13-6

We are tentatively now putting North Carolina as a slight favorite to get the last No. 1, based on a couple of reasons. First, North Carolina beat Tennessee head-to-head in Hawaii back in November, and that could be the thing that causes the coin to flip their way. Further, we think the Tar Heels have a slightly higher chance of winning their conference tourney, and the team that closes the strongest likely gets the last slot.

Arizona is the only other team with a shot. They now need to win the Pac-12 tournament and then hope that the other two falter early.

Kentucky is Rising

We’ve moved Kentucky up to the No. 3 line. Based strictly on the resume criteria, they would be the first No. 4 seed. But Kansas just lost in a blowout at Houston and has injury concerns entering the Big 12 Tournament, so we are going to go ahead and bump the in-form Wildcats over the uncertainty of the Kansas situation.

One month ago today, Kentucky was 16-7 after the home loss to Gonzaga. They were being projected as a team down around a No. 8 seed, or worse, in many brackets. Since then, they’ve won seven of eight games, including road wins at Auburn, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.

End of the No. 5 Line to the first No. 8 seed is one big tier

There is a noticeable tier gap near the end of the No. 5 seed line, where it’s difficult to see the top 18 or so teams from moving down much. Then, there’s a large tier of teams that includes around 10-12 teams, that could see plenty of movement this week.

For now, we’ve moved Texas Tech (very tentatively) into the last No. 5 slot, but that’s etched in pencil. The Mountain West has several teams in this tier, as are two WCC teams. Teams like Dayton, Wisconsin, Washington State, and Texas can also move up or down based on what happens this week.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last 10 teams projected in our at-large field:

• Colorado State
• St. John’s
• Michigan State
• TCU
• Virginia
• Mississippi State
• Colorado
• Villanova
• Indiana State
• Texas A&M

And here are the first 10 teams out of the field:

• New Mexico
• Pittsburgh
• Iowa
• Providence
• Wake Forest
• Kansas State
• South Florida
• Cincinnati
• Utah
• Butler

The top four teams in the IN list above are probably safe, barring a bad loss early in conference tourney action. The true bubble starts at Virginia and stretches down to about Iowa. That bubble is also likely to shrink. Right now, we are projecting Florida Atlantic (American) and Dayton (Atlantic-10) as the most likely tourney winners and also as locks for an at-large if necessary. But if either loses, that takes away a spot.

That’s before we get to some other situations that could produce an unexpected winner that steals a bid, like a few Pac-12 teams that could realistically win that conference tourney.

The teams at the bottom of the OUT list likely need very deep runs, and even that might not be enough. We also list South Florida as a special case. Who knows how the committee will view them if they lose in the American Final.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Thursday, March 7th

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on March 6th.

 

Tennessee to the No. 1 Seed Line

The big move this week is Tennessee up to the top seed line, getting the final No. 1 seed in the West. Arizona did not lose in the last week, but Tennessee moves up on the strength of two road wins against tournament teams, at Alabama and at South Carolina. Since our projections are based on average expectations against the upcoming schedule, that means that Tennessee outperformed what we thought. And that was enough to shift the balance for the top seed.

The last spot is unsettled, with Tennessee and Arizona the two leading contenders. The two ACC teams (Duke and North Carolina) are also in the mix if they win out. Marquette has probably seen its chance disappear with Tyler Kolek’s recent injury and the losses to Creighton and Connecticut. Iowa State also has an outside shot but would likely need to win out.

Gonzaga the Big Riser

There may not have been a bigger win for a team’s bracket prospects than Gonzaga winning impressively at Saint Mary’s. Some people had them out of the tournament, and while we were projecting them near the bubble, had them in. But now, they have won 13 of 14, avenged their only loss, and have road wins at Saint Mary’s and Kentucky.

We are still ahead of current bracketologists, projecting them on the No. 6 line. They might be able to get a No. 5 but that probably represents their likely spot if they win the WCC Tournament. They’ll finish at 27-6 if they do that, and two of the losses will be to No. 1 seeds Purdue and Connecticut. There’s no way the committee should put that kind of team on the No. 7 or No. 8 line directly in the path of a top seed.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

• Villanova
• Florida Atlantic
• St. John’s
• Seton Hall
• Utah
• New Mexico
• Virginia
• South Florida (see below)

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

• Colorado
• Drake
• Providence
• Pittsburgh
• Iowa
• Wake Forest
• Richmond
• Texas A&M

Let’s take a minute to talk about South Florida. They are likely to be one of the true wildcards at the bubble if they do not win the American Conference Tournament. We did not have them even in our first eight out until now, but after another week where they got a big road win at Charlotte (and a win over Tulane), we have re-evaluated.

South Florida is 23-5, and has won 21 of 22 games after a rough 2-4 start. Up until this week, they were outside the Top 80 in the NET, something that made a bid unlikely. But now that they are inside of it, and their “Strength of Record” rank is inside the Top 50, they are definitely in the mix.

Looking back at some unexpected mid-majors that got in to the First Four in Dayton, they have a lot of commonalities with teams like Belmont in 2019, Drake in 2021, Saint Mary’s in 2013, or Iona in 2012. They have a gaudy record, a Strength of Record rank that puts them in at-large consideration, and a winning record against the Top Two Quads. South Florida is now 6-3 against Quads 1 & 2 after the win at Charlotte.

They could fall out with a bad early loss in the American, but if they get to the semis, they are going to be very much in consideration if they do not get the auto bid.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Thursday, February 29

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 28th.

Biggest Movers

There was no change to the top of our projections. Kansas and Iowa State swapped on the 2/3 line, with concerns over Kevin McCullar’s health status and the Jayhawks’ loss at home to BYU.

Here were some of the biggest movers in our bracket compared to a week ago:

• Kentucky continues to rise, up to the final No. 4 spot.
• South Carolina rebounded and get a big win at Texas A&M to solidify their seeding, now on the No. 6 line.
• We saw some shuffling in the No. 7 to No. 10 range, with Northwestern up and Colorado State down.
• St. John’s continued to surge following Rick Pitino’s tirade a few weeks ago, and added two quality wins that put them in our field.
• Texas A&M’s fall continued, now completely out of our First Four Out.
• Wake Forest tenuously moves into our field in the play-in games, as does Colorado. Our bracket, though, projects Florida Atlantic (American) and Dayton (Atlantic 10) as the most likely auto bids from those conferences, whereas most brackets use current standings to project the auto bid.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

• Florida Atlantic
• New Mexico
• Virginia
• Gonzaga
• Wake Forest
• Villanova
• St. John’s
• Colorado

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

• Providence
• Utah
• Drake (we project Indiana State as the auto bid, but they would be right on the bubble as well)
• Kansas State
• Texas A&M
• Iowa
• Syracuse
• Pittsburgh

On overall resume, Providence (and Utah) would likely be in as of right now. But there is concern with some key injuries and how the committee will view these teams if they are truly right on the bubble. Providence and Villanova have a massive bubble game on Saturday that could determine whether one of them gets in the tournament.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Thursday, February 22

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 21.

Biggest Movers

There was no change to the top of our projections. Some of the shifts are subtle up top, based on the NCAA Selection Committee’s bracket reveal last week (for example, swapping Kansas and Iowa State on the 2/3 seed lines).

Here were some of the biggest movers in our bracket compared to a week ago:

• Creighton up to the final No. 3 seed (from a No. 5) based on the win over UConn, in a virtual tie with Duke for the final 3 seed.
• Kentucky up to a No. 6 (from No. 8) with the win at Auburn offsetting the loss at LSU, and this being a pretty flat tier from the 6 to 8 lines.
• Seton Hall and Providence both into the field in the final at-large slots on the No. 11 line, after both got big road wins over other tournament hopefuls in last week.
• Texas A&M dropping from No.9 to the final at-large in, after another bad week with two losses.
• Ole Miss falling out after the road loss to Mississippi State, as their non-conference strength of schedule could be an issue if they are right on the cut line on Selection Sunday.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

• Nevada
• Nebraska
• Gonzaga
• Providence
• Utah
• Villanova
• Seton Hall
• Texas A&M

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

• Ole Miss
• Butler
• Wake Forest
• Drake
• Cincinnati
• Colorado
• St. John’s
• Iowa

The actual bubble is likely to shrink, as there are multiple conferences (American, Atlantic-10) where we are projecting one bid, but that one team would likely get an at-large if anyone else won the conference tournament. So the true bubble is probably a couple spots up from the cutoff right now.

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NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction as of Thursday, February 15

Selection Sunday is four weeks (and three days) away, so it’s time to kick off our weekly predictions of how we expect the 2024 NCAA tournament bracket to shape up.

Here is our projected 2024 bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 14.

 

Projected No. 1 NCAA Tournament Seeds

Our current projected No. 1 seeds are Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, and Arizona.

• Alabama, Houston, and Connecticut have pretty strong cases for the top seed line and are highly likely to remain there barring a collapse. The fourth spot, currently projected to go to Arizona, is a little less set, though Arizona is a clear choice over the other candidates at the moment.
• The bigger movement area is the group behind that, where three SEC teams are vying for top positioning, several Big 12 teams, led by Iowa State and Kansas are competing for top seed lines, Marquette is surging, and North Carolina and Duke are playing for top seeds.

Final Seed List

This is the final seed list used to seed the bracket, subject only to swapping in the teams as outlined above, depending on today’s results.

 

 

 

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

• Boise State
• Northwestern
• Mississippi
• Butler
• Gonzaga
• Nevada
• Nebraska
• Villanova

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

• Cincinnati
• Wake Forest
• St. John’s
• Seton Hall
• Providence
• Kansas State
• Colorado
• Memphis

Not much separates the top group from the bottom group, and a single key result or bad loss could switch the outlooks. Right now, the Big East is very much the key bubble conference, as five Big East teams make up the 10 teams located either just above or below the cut line.

About Our 2024 NCAA Bracket Predictions

Our Bracket Predictions Are Forward-Looking

Many bracketologists put out brackets based on what has happened so far in the season. They are effectively predicting what the 2024 NCAA bracket would look like if the season ended that day.

Our bracket predictions also consider what is likely to happen in the future. They project what we think the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday 2024. That means they consider all of the following:

• The opponents that a team has beaten, and lost to, so far.
• The opponents that each team still has left to play.
• The probabilities that each team will get key wins or losses moving forward.
• How those additional games will impact each team’s resume on Selection Sunday.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, past results will have a bigger overall impact on a team’s resume, because there won’t be too many games left to change the outlook.

But as of, say, early February, there are plenty of key games remaining and the probabilities behind future outcomes still matter a lot. (Check out the next section if you want to see how we did a year ago at this time.)

You can also check out our detailed 2024 Bracketology page, which has projected records and percentage chances assigned. The seeding in the bracket here will look similar to what shows there, mostly, though this bracket is applying bracketing principles, such as when conference opponents can meet, and sending teams with preferred seeds to geographical locations that make the most sense.

How Our Bracket Projections Did Last Year

Last year, we introduced our first Bracket Predictions post on February 13th, one month out from Selection Sunday. So how accurate were the projections we made one month early?

• All four projected No. 1 seeds and three of the No. 2 seeds were projected for the correct final line.
• 18 of the 20 teams projected for a top 5 seed ended up within one seed line of their projection a month out.
• Of the 46 teams projected for the top 11 seed lines (the top auto bids and all at-larges), 43 actually made the tournament.
• All four No. 12 seeds, the top mid-major auto bids, were all projected to the correct seed line one month out and made it.
• Half of the projected No. 13 to No. 15 seed auto bids made the NCAA Tournament.
• Here were the records (after those initial predictions) of the three teams we projected in the field as a No. 11 seed or better that missed: Oklahoma State (2-6), Rutgers (3-5), North Carolina (4-4, but 1-4 against tourney teams).
• Here were the closing records of the three at-large teams that we did not have in the field one month out: Utah State (7-1), Penn State (8-2, reached Big Ten final), Arizona State (4-4, but won at Arizona).

Over the last two years, we have now projected 43 of 46 and 42 of 46 among the at-large seed lines correctly with one month to go. The lesson from the ones that missed is that we are probably going to be correct, unless teams go on bad losing streaks. Similarly, the teams that made it in the field, that we did not project there, went on great closing runs AND were close to the bubble with a month to go.