How Often Does a 13 Seed Beat a 4 Seed?

Explore complete 4 vs 13 seed history and how often the underdog has pulled off the unthinkable in March Madness.

by Spencer Limbach - Feb 24, 2026

Below, we break down how often 13 seeds beat 4 seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. On top of that, we’ll look at the farthest a 13 seed has advanced in the Big Dance and explain what it means for your bracket strategy.

How Often Does a 13 Seed Beat a 4 Seed?

The 13 seed has pulled off the upset against a 4 seed at a rate of 20.6% since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Some memorable and recent 13-seed upsets include:

• 2024: Yale over Auburn
• 2023: Furman over Virginia
• 2021: Ohio over Virginia & North Texas over Purdue
• 2019: UC Irvine over Kansas State
• 2018: Buffalo over Arizona & Marshall over Wichita State
• 2016: Hawaii over California
• 2013: La Salle over Kansas State
• 2012: Ohio over Michigan

Overall 4 vs. 13 Seed History

The 4 seeds still have a firm upper hand in this first-round matchup, with a 127-33 record against 13 seeds, giving them a 79.4% winning percentage.

This means 13 seeds win approximately 20.6% of these matchups: almost one upset per tournament on average.

You still need to know when an upset actually makes sense, which is why we created this guide on how many March Madness Upset Picks you should select.

What’s the Farthest a 13 Seed Has Gone in the NCAA Tournament?

The farthest a 13 seed has ever advanced in the NCAA Tournament is to the Sweet 16.

Six separate teams have reached this achievement:

• 2013: La Salle (beat Ole Miss in Round of 32)
• 2012: Ohio (beat South Florida in Round of 32)
• 2006: Bradley (beat Pittsburgh in Round of 32)
• 1999: Oklahoma (beat UNC Charlotte in Round of 32)
• 1998: Valparaiso (beat Florida State in Round of 32)
• 1988: Richmond (beat Georgia Tech in Round of 32)

No 13 seed has ever reached the Elite Eight, but having six teams make the Sweet 16 shows these underdogs can pull together multiple wins.

Related: See the Lowest Seed to Win the NCAA Tournament and others that have come close.

What Does This Mean For Your 2025 Bracket?

Historical stats won’t win your bracket pool.

Success comes from knowing when to go against the crowd and when to stick with the favorites—based on your pool’s size and scoring system.

In a small, standard-scoring pool, you can play it safe. In larger, riskier pools, strategic bracket picks matter.

How do you factor it all in? PoolGenius does the heavy lifting for you.

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