How Often Does a 12 Seed Beat a 5 Seed?

How often does a 12 seed beat a 5 seed, and what does it mean for your March Madness bracket?

by Spencer Limbach - Feb 24, 2026

Everyone talks about how the 12 vs. 5 seed matchup is ripe for the upset picking, but how true is that? How often do 12 seeds beat 5 seeds, and what does this mean for your overall bracket strategy? Let’s dive into the complete 5 vs. 12 seed history in the NCAA Tournament below.

How Often Does a 12 Seed Beat a 5 Seed?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 12 seed has a 57-103 record against the 5 seed in the first round.

This means 12 seeds win about 35.6% of the time, which is a significant jump compared to 13 seeds winning 21.2% of first-round games.

Some memorable, recent 12-seed upsets include:

• 2025: Colorado State over Memphis & McNeese State over Clemson
• 2024: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s & James Madison over Wisconsin
• 2022: New Mexico State over UConn & Richmond over Iowa
• 2021: Oregon State over Tennessee
• 2019: Oregon over Wisconsin, Liberty over Mississippi State, & Murray State over Marquette
• 2017: Middle Tennessee over Minnesota
• 2016: Yale over Baylor, Little Rock over Purdue

What’s the Farthest a 12 Seed Has Gone in the NCAA Tournament?

The farthest a 12 seed has ever advanced in the NCAA Tournament is to the Elite Eight (quarterfinals). Two 12-seed teams have achieved this impressive feat:

• 2021: Oregon State (beat Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Loyola Chicago before losing to Houston)
• 2002: Missouri (beat Miami, Ohio State, and UCLA before losing to Oklahoma)

Several other 12 seeds have reached the Sweet 16, making this seed line live to make a run any given year.

What Does This Mean For Your 2025 Bracket?

Historical stats are interesting, but they won’t win your pool.

The 12-seed wins about one-third of the time. Because of this, many bracket pickers conclude that they must always pick at least one 12-seed to win in the first round.

But which team should you choose? Should you take more than one? And how far should that 12-seed go? 

All of these decisions can feel overwhelming, but they don’t have to because PoolGenius does the heavy lifting for you.

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