2025 Sweet 16 Brackets Writeup

We break down top strategies and value picks for 2025 Sweet 16 (Second Chance) bracket contests.

Our customized Sweet 16 brackets (aka “Second Chance” pools) for 2025 are now live in our NCAA Bracket Picks product.

These pools, which start fresh with the Sweet 16 round, are run by several bracket contest sites such as ESPN and RunYourPool.

How We Make Sweet 16 / Second Chance Bracket Picks

As with our full tournament brackets, our first step in making Sweet 16 bracket picks is to create adjusted tournament ratings for all remaining 2025 NCAA tournament teams.

Step 1: Update Team Ratings

Now that two tournament rounds have been played, we know more about the surviving teams than we did at the start of the tournament. As a result, we can refine our team ratings based on factors like current injury status and recent quality of play.

For example, No. 3 Kentucky faced injury concerns with Lamont Butler heading into the tournament, creating uncertainty around their performance. But through two games, Butler has played full minutes, and the Wildcats have looked more like their usual selves with him on the court.

We also review the latest betting market info—both futures odds and Sweet 16 game lines—and take a closer look at teams where our adjusted ratings differ from the market.

In those cases, we decide whether to adjust our numbers to align with the betting market or stick with our original analysis.

Step 2: Collect Pick Popularity Data

On Monday and Tuesday of Sweet 16 week, we collect as much data as possible on public picking trends in Second Chance bracket contests.

The availability of this data varies each year since these contests are less popular than full-tournament brackets, and some sites start or stop offering them annually.

Still, we can usually find data from at least a couple of major sources, such as ESPN, RunYourPool, or online sportsbooks that run these contests.

Step 3: Run Simulations & Identify Optimal Brackets

Once we adjust our team ratings and collect pick popularity data, we generate customized brackets for Sweet 16 bracket pools by running thousands of computer simulations:

• First, we simulate the rest of the NCAA tournament games using round survival odds based on our updated tournament ratings.
• We then run thousands of Second Chance pool simulations by combining our tournament results simulations with public picking trends from Sweet 16 bracket contest sites.

This approach enables us to test thousands of potential combinations of Second Chance bracket picks until we find the “optimal” bracket that wins a specific type of pool (i.e., a specific scoring system and pool size) the most often.

Bracket Strategy for Sweet 16 / Second Chance Pools

The strategy for Sweet 16 pools is similar to full NCAA Tournament bracket pools in a few key ways:

• In smaller pools, it often makes sense to play fairly conservatively and let your opponents shoot themselves in the foot with too many risky upset picks.
• In larger pools, it’s still important to make more targeted value picks to differentiate your bracket from the masses.

However, there are also some differences with full tournament bracket strategy. For example:

• In full tournament pools, an extremely conservative strategy in small pools can make sense. As your opponents pick too many upsets in the early rounds, your conservative play and selective focus on a few lower-risk value picks can give you the edge overall.
• In Sweet 16 pools, there are fewer value opportunities early in the bracket. With only 14 non-champion picks (compared to 62 in a full bracket) and less risky behavior from opponents when picking early upsets, value tends to be concentrated in just a handful of spots.
• In 2025, the best value picks are often teams that could face No. 1 Florida on their path, such as No. 4 Maryland, No. 3 Texas Tech, or even No. 1 Auburn as a potential Final Four matchup.

Value Pick Analysis For Sweet 16 Bracket Contests in 2025