What’s the Lowest Seed to Win the NCAA Tournament?

Learn about the biggest Cinderella stories in NCAA Tournament history and what these historical upsets mean for your bracket strategy.

When March Madness arrives, everyone loves a good Cinderella story. Over the years, the NCAA Tournament has delivered some incredible underdog victories, with low-seeded teams defying expectations and making deep runs. But just how low can a seed go and still win it all?

For this article, we’re defining a No. 16 seed as the lowest possible seed in the NCAA Tournament and a No. 1 seed as the highest. So, when identifying the lowest-seeded team to win the tournament or reach the Final Four, we’re essentially spotlighting the biggest underdogs to make a run.

What’s the Lowest Seed to the NCAA Tournament?

The lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament is a No. 8 seed. This historic achievement belongs to the Villanova Wildcats in 1985, the same year the field expanded to 64 teams.

The second-lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament is a No. 7 seed, which Connecticut accomplished in 2014. After that, we have to move up to No. 6 seeds, with Kansas (1988) and North Carolina State (1983) winning championships from that line.

Looking at the other side of the equation, No. 1 seeds have won the NCAA Tournament at a 64% rate since 1985.

What’s the Lowest Seed to Make the Final Four?

The lowest seed to ever reach the Final Four is a No. 11 seed, which has happened six times in tournament history:

• North Carolina State (2024)
• UCLA (2021)
• Loyola Chicago (2018)
• VCU (2011)
• George Mason (2006)
• LSU (1986)

Notably, none of these No. 11 seeds managed to win in the Final Four, as all fell short of reaching the championship game.

Other notable low seeds to reach the Final Four include:

• 10 seed: Syracuse (2016)
• 9 seed: Florida Atlantic (2023), Wichita State (2013), Pennsylvania (1979)
• 8 seed: North Carolina (2022), Kentucky (2014), Butler (2011), North Carolina (2000), Wisconsin (2000), Villanova (1985)

What’s the Lowest Seed to Make the Elite Eight?

The lowest seed to reach the Elite Eight (quarterfinals) is a No. 15 seed, which St. Peter’s achieved in 2022. Their incredible run included upsets over 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State, and 3-seed Purdue before finally falling to 8-seed North Carolina in the Elite Eight.

What Does This Mean for Your Bracket?

While these historic Cinderella runs make for great stories, they don’t necessarily provide a reliable blueprint for your bracket strategy.

The better approach is to find leverage in your bracket based on public biases. By understanding how others in your pool are likely to pick, you can make strategic choices that give you an advantage.

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