How Often Does a 9 Seed Beat an 8 Seed?

Learn the complete NCAA Tournament 8 vs. 9 seed matchup history and what it means for your bracket strategy.

by Spencer Limbach - Feb 22, 2026

The 8 vs. 9 matchup is often considered the ultimate toss-up in NCAA Tournament first-round games. With both teams usually representing similar quality at-large bids, these games can be notoriously difficult to predict. But does the historical data show any edge for either seed? How often does the 9 seed beat the 8 seed?

How Often Does a 9 Seed Beat an 8 Seed?

Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 9 seed has an 83-77 record against the 8 seed in the first round.

This means 9 seeds win about 51.9% of the time, making it the only first-round matchup where the lower seed actually has a winning record historically.

Has a 9 Seed Ever Made the Final Four?

Yes, it has happened three times in tournament history. However, none of those teams advanced to the National Championship game, meaning the Final Four is the farthest a 9 seed has advanced.

• 2023: Florida Atlantic
• 2013: Wichita State
• 1979: Pennsylvania

But how far should you take a Cinderella pick? We navigated this in our full guide to picking March Madness upsets.

Has an 8 Seed Ever Made the Final Four?

Yes, an 8 seed has reached the Final Four on seven occasions. That includes four making the National Championship game and one (Villanova 1985) claiming the NCAA Title.

• 2022: North Carolina (Runner-Up)
• 2014: Kentucky (Runner-Up)
• 2011: Butler (Runner-Up)
• 2000: Wisconsin
• 2000: North Carolina
• 1985: Villanova (Champion)
• 1980: UCLA (Runner-Up)

In fact, Villanova’s 1985 championship run as a No. 8 seed still marks the lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament.

What Does This Mean For Your 2025 Bracket?

Historical stats are interesting, but they won’t win your pool.

The 9-seed wins slightly over half the time, making these games essentially coin flips. Because of this unpredictability, many bracket pickers choose 8-9 matchups based on gut feeling or team reputation.

But is that the optimal strategy? Which 8 or 9 seeds have the best chance to make a deep run?

Smart bracket strategy isn’t about blindly picking based on historical data, it’s about knowing when to go against the crowd and when to stick with favorites.

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