2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions (Updated)
Welcome to our 2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions! We’ll update this article regularly with new brackets and insights each week. That’s especially true as we move into March.
When Conference Tournaments begin, updates will increase in frequency, leading up to Selection Sunday on March 15.
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Our Updated March Madness Bracket Predictions
Below this section is our most recent NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction. As we update it, we archive and link prior versions. You can also review our methodology and see how last year’s projection stacked up against the actual Selection Sunday bracket.
- Latest Update: March 9
- Previous Bracket Updates
- About our 2026 NCAA Bracket Predictions
- How Accurate Were Last Year’s Predictions?
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, March 9
The bracket is as of games played through 7 pm ET Sunday, March 8.
Florida In, UConn Out as the Final No. 1 (For Now)
Connecticut’s loss at Marquette might have bumped the Huskies off the top line, and head coach Danny Hurley’s bump of an official on a late technical might also garner a suspension.
For now, that moves Florida into our final projected No. 1 seed spot as we head to conference tourney week. If the Gators win the SEC Championship, they will be our projected final top seed next Sunday. If they lose, it does open the door for Connecticut to still claim it.
Six Auto Bids Claimed
Five Conference Tournaments have concluded as of Sunday Night, but we actually have six auto-bids already decided. That’s because LIU will get the Northeast bid, because Mercyhurst is not yet eligible (the final will be Tuesday night).
The other winners are:
- Tennessee State (OVC)
- Northern Iowa (MVC)
- High Point (Big South)
- North Dakota State (Summit)
- Queens (Atlantic Sun)
For those of you who are also betting subscribers, we gave out Tennessee State (+210) and Northern Iowa (+500) as two of our three conference winner futures picks last week in our Conference Tournament article. We’ll be adding more this week.
Does Anyone Want to Win At the Bubble?
Stanford has actually moved up right to the cut line, and it’s because almost no one in our bubble watch won this weekend. In fact, of our Last 4 In, First 4 Out, Next 4 Out group entering the weekend, only Ohio State and VCU won. Stanford was right outside that Next 4 Out, but a big road win at NC State now keeps them alive for a bid.
All those losses near the bubble also kept some teams who also lost from really being in trouble entering this week. While you can never call a team on the 10 seed line a lock, we see a separation from most of the 10 seed and 9 seed line groups, and the actual bubble cut line as the final 11 seeds.
Here’s how we see it after a weekend where the bubble saw plenty of losses.
Bubble Watch
- Last Four Byes: Miami-Ohio, Missouri, NC State, UCF
- Last Four In: Texas, Santa Clara, SMU, VCU
- First Four Out: Stanford, Indiana, Auburn, New Mexico
- Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, California, Cincinnati, San Diego State
Belmont might have been in at-large consideration if they had lost in the MVC Final, but a blowout loss in the quarters to Drake, giving up 100 points, is not going to get it done. So we have them outside the “Next Four Out” now.
New Mexico, Auburn, Indiana, SMU, Texas, NC State, and UCF have gone a collective 5-23 over the last two weeks. Woof.
It seems like the final couple of spots are there for the taking if any of these teams can string some wins together in the conference tournaments.
For more insights, check out our dedicated NCAA Bubble Watch 2026 page.
About Our 2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions
Our NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions Are Forward-Looking
Most bracket projections reflect where teams stand right now—essentially, what the NCAA bracket would look like if the season ended today.
Our predictions go a step further. We project what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday 2026 by factoring in:
- Who teams have beaten and lost to so far
- Who they still have left to play
- The probabilities of key future wins or losses
- How those results will impact their resumes
As Selection Sunday gets closer, past results matter more since fewer games remain to change the picture. But in early February, many key games are still ahead, so future probabilities remain crucial.
March Madness Picks 2026
Get an edge in NCAA bracket pools, survivor contests, and Calcutta auctions with our data-driven picks and tools.
How We Factor in Future Games
We aim to be as accurate as possible in predicting what actually happens. Some teams will rise or fall based on swing games, but we use game odds to project results and incorporate key metrics the Selection Committee values—like NET ranking, Strength of Record, and Quad 1 & 2 wins.
For a deeper dive, check out our 2026 Bracketology page, which includes projected records and percentages. The bracket here broadly aligns with those projections but also accounts for bracketing rules (like conference matchups and regional placements). We’ve also made some judgment calls based on deeper analysis, leading to slight seeding or team selection adjustments.
How Our NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions Did Last Year
Last year, here’s how our predictions that were released 30 days prior to Selection Sunday fared:
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, March 6
The bracket is as of games played through Thursday, March 5.
We will have an end-of-regular-season update after all the games on Sunday as well.
No Big Changes Up Top, Plenty of Room for Moves in the Middle
The top of our seed line lists remained largely the same, other than some slight updates to the final No. 3 seed and last No. 5 seed spots.
The biggest moves in the bracket came in the middle seeds:
- TCU moves up to a No. 9, safely off the bubble now after the win at Texas Tech.
- Miami (the Florida version) continues to move up, now a No. 7 seed with potential to move higher.
- BYU continues to slide, now down to a No. 7 seed with potential to drop further.
- Georgia is now on the No. 8 line, but close to moving higher. There is a big tier that starts with the final No. 6 seed (currently St. Mary’s) and runs to the early 10 seeds, and we could see plenty of moves within that range.
Bubble Watch
- Last Four Byes: Texas, Miami-Ohio, Texas A&M
- Last Four In: Ohio State, Santa Clara, SMU, VCU
- First Four Out: Auburn, New Mexico, Indiana, Virginia Tech
- Next Four Out: California, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Seton Hall
We are currently projecting Belmont (MVC) and South Florida (American) in the field as automatic bids, but both would be right on the bubble among the Last In/First Four Out discussion if they are at-large candidates.
After New Mexico’s costly home loss to Colorado State, we are moving VCU (not Auburn) up to our projected final slot. This is driven by their higher likelihood of getting a bid (either auto as an A-10 winner or at-large) than the others. Auburn might be ahead at the moment, but the path likely involves a win at Alabama on Saturday.
Meanwhile, SMU has lost three in a row to end up right above the bubble for now, but has a dangerous game Saturday at a resurgent Florida State.
For more insights, check out our dedicated NCAA Bubble Watch 2026 page.
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, March 2
The bracket is as of games played through Sunday, March 1.
Big Moves Coming Into March
The weekend action saw some more shifts in our bracket, as several teams made big moves (both positive and negative).
Let’s hit some of the big ones:
- Ohio State IN / Indiana OUT: Ohio State got a big home win over Purdue on Sunday, while Indiana lost to Michigan State, and with Ohio State getting its best win of the year, they now move back into the field.
- Michigan State to a No. 2 / Iowa State drops to No. 3: For the first time, Sparty moves up to the 2 line after a big week with wins over Purdue and Indiana, while Iowa State’s home loss to Texas Tech drops them down a line.
- Gonzaga down to a No. 4 / Saint Mary’s up to a No. 7: Saint Mary’s won the season finale before these two head to the WCC Semis in a week, shifting both.
- Florida is now the top No. 2 Seed: We’ve had Florida on the 2 line for a while, and the consensus is now starting to shift toward our position. They are not only on the 2 line but solidly there with all the other results, and now have a No. 1 seed in sight.
Bubble Watch
- Last Four Byes: Texas, SMU, Miami-Ohio, TCU
- Last Four In: Texas A&M, Santa Clara, Ohio State, New Mexico
- First Four Out: Auburn, San Diego State, California, Indiana
- Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, VCU, USC, West Virginia
Of note here, we are currently projecting Belmont (MVC) and South Florida (American) in the field as automatic bids, but both would be right on the bubble among the Last In/First Four Out discussion if they are at-large candidates.
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 27
The bracket is as of games played through Wednesday, Feb. 25.
NCAA Tournament Predictions: Watch Our Latest Episode
Jason Lisk and Nick Bateman break down the bracket and debate which teams are on the “right” and “wrong” side of the bubble, along with the quagmire that is undefeated Miami Ohio.
Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the PoolGenius YouTube Channel for more data-driven March Madness content.
NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out
The bubble is still a mess, but we do have a clearer picture of who’s living on the cut line entering the week.
A few teams have moved from “sweating” to “barely safe,” while a handful of profiles with ugly records or thin Quad 1/2 results are now one bad loss away from sliding out entirely.
As Nick noted in the video, the Auburn vs. Indiana debate is still the perfect example of how thin these margins are, because it comes down to what the committee values more: record optics or strength of schedule.
As a result, here’s where we stand entering the weekend:
- Last Four Byes: Clemson, Texas A&M, Texas, TCU
- Last Four In: Miami (Ohio), Santa Clara, New Mexico, Indiana
- First Four Out: Auburn, Ohio State, San Diego State, Virginia Tech
- Next Four Out: California, USC, Belmont, VCU
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, Feb. 23
This bracket is our NCAA Tournament Predictions as of games through Feb. 22.
Showdown Weekend Produces Some Shifts Up Top
It was a big weekend in college basketball, so we thought we would provide an updated outlook on where things stand entering the week.
- Duke‘s big win over Michigan swaps the two on the No. 1 line, with Duke now moving to the projected top overall seed, narrowly.
- Arizona really solidified itself as another No. 1 seed and looks like a virtual lock after winning at Houston.
- That Houston loss, along with losses by Iowa State and Illinois, pushes Connecticut back to the top seed line.
But that last No. 1 seed is now completely wide open, and the losses taken by three of the candidates leave the door open for defending champion Florida as well.
Add in Purdue, and we think the last spot comes down to one of those six teams, with four more almost certainly occupying the No. 2 seed line.
NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out
The bubble also got quite the shake-up this weekend:
- UCLA had a big comeback and a game-winning layup in overtime to beat Illinois and really move themselves up and off the bubble cut line.
- USC, meanwhile, lost at home to Oregon, continuing its slide, and now falls all the way out of the projected field.
- Auburn also got a key late score to beat Kentucky and stop their slide for the moment, keeping them above the cut line.
- TCU beat West Virginia, as we had them just out entering the weekend.
- San Diego State continues to falter, losing at Colorado State after losing at home to Grand Canyon this week.
- Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio State all fell in tough road matchups, which could have bolstered their tourney resumes.
- Miami-Ohio remains undefeated and is now 4 wins away from a 31-0 regular season. If they finish 31-0 or 30-1, it’s going to be unlikely the committee leaves them out if they don’t get the auto bid, even with a weak schedule strength.
As a result of all that, here’s where we stand entering the week:
- Last Four In: Our final No. 11 seeds are Santa Clara vs. TCU and Missouri vs. Miami (Ohio) in the play-in games, with Indiana also a No. 11 seed.
- First Four Out: New Mexico, Ohio State, USC, and Virginia Tech
- Next Four Out: San Diego State, VCU, West Virginia, California
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 20
This bracket is current as of games played on Thursday, Feb. 19.
No. 1 Seeds: The Race Tightens
While many brackets had Connecticut on the No. 1 line, ours will stay the same from last week:
- MIDWEST – Michigan
- WEST – Arizona
- EAST – Duke
- SOUTH – Houston
That said, the race for at least the final No. 1 seed, and maybe two of them, tightened up over the last week. Arizona lost again at home to Texas Tech, Houston lost a big game at Iowa State, and Connecticut got upset at home by Creighton, a truly stunning result in a game they were favored by 15.5 points.
Meanwhile, Illinois bounced back with two wins since our last update; Iowa State got two big home wins over Kansas and Houston; and Florida stretched its run to six straight wins and 11 of the last 12.
As a result, we got a little clarity up top, where Michigan and Duke have separated, and more teams are in the mix.
Here are the odds to get a No. 1 seed at FanDuel entering Thursday night:
- Michigan -20000
- Duke -2000
- Arizona -1500
- Houston -165
- Connecticut +300
- Iowa State +300
- Illinois +500
- Kansas +3500
- Florida +10000
In this week’s video, Jason breaks that down and says, “So you’re saying they’ve got a chance” about defending champion Florida getting a No. 1 seed.
NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out
- Last Four In: Our final No. 11 seeds are Santa Clara vs. Missouri and UCLA vs. Miami (Ohio) in the play-in games.
- Last Four Out: TCU, Ohio State, San Diego State, and New Mexico
March Madness Bracket Predictions: Thursday, Feb. 12
This bracket is current as of games played on Thursday, Feb. 12.
No. 1 Seeds: Fighting for the Final Top Seed
Here is how we see the No. 1 seeds shaking out for the 2026 NCAA Tournament:
- MIDWEST – Michigan
- WEST – Arizona
- EAST – Duke
- SOUTH – Houston
Connecticut is the other team very much in the mix. In fact, they are at -260 to get a top seed, and Houston is +100 right now.
The other three are at -1500 or better, and no other team is better than +1200 to secure a No. 1 seed outside the Top 5 (Illinois is actually 6th at FanDuel).
There’s a significant gap, and we prefer a slight value for Houston relative to Connecticut, though it will be close. Houston has nearly a 50% chance to win the Big 12 regular season and more paths to top wins in the Big 12 Tournament, which is why we give them the edge right now.
NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out
- Last Four In: Our final No. 11 seeds are Miami vs. Missouri, and UCLA vs. Miami-Ohio for the play-in games.
- Last Four Out: TCU, Ohio State, USC, and Virginia Tech.
Speaking of having Miami of Ohio as a final at-large seed, we covered that at length in our Bracketology video this week: