2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions (Updated)

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Saturday, March 14

The bracket is as of games played through Friday, March 13.

We have one day left until Selection Sunday. A lot happened on Friday, though there were only a few notable shifts in the bracket.

• Iowa State moved into a 2 seed, with Illinois dropping to a 3 seed with the loss to Wisconsin. That now puts three Big Ten teams on the 3 seed line.
• There were some slight changes to the 8/9 line, with Utah State moving up by reaching the Mountain West final.
• San Diego State moves into the field with the late-night win over New Mexico.
• Oklahoma drops out with the loss, and Texas now sits at the “first team out” in my projections.

We will find out 11 automatic-bid conference champions today, starting with the America East final in the morning and ending with the WAC title game, which starts at midnight Eastern time.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: UCF-x, Santa Clara-x, NC State-x, Missouri-x
• Last Four In: Miami-Ohio-x, VCU, SMU-x, San Diego State
• First Four Out: Texas-x, New Mexico-x, Oklahoma-x, Auburn-x
• Next Four Out: Stanford-x, Indiana-x, California-x, Virginia Tech-x

(-x means the team is finished playing, teams in bold playing today)

VCU and San Diego State are the only teams still playing here, and both could win the automatic bids and take themselves out of the First Four.

In addition to those two, we still have potential bid thieves lurking in Ole Miss (SEC semifinal vs. Arkansas), Dayton (Atlantic 10 semifinal vs. St. Louis), and Saint Joseph’s (vs. VCU).

VCU almost certainly needs to win today. I have San Diego State in that final slot for now. Compared to Texas, they now are right behind them in the NET rankings, just ahead of them in Wins Above Bubble, and are 9-9 against the top two Quadrants, versus 7-13 for Texas. The Longhorns’ losing record against Quadrant 2 opponents may sink them here.

If we get a bid thief or VCU/San Diego State gets the auto bid, Missouri, NC State, and Santa Clara would be the most likely teams to be bumped to Dayton, and SMU could be in trouble. Texas also needs to avoid those scenarios, as they are at best right on the edge now.

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, March 13

The bracket is as of games played through Thursday, March 12.

The bubble is starting to settle, and heads to the SEC Tournament and Mountain West Tournament today (with a side stop in the Atlantic 10). Today, we turn more to the big boys, with a lot of top matchups.

• The Big 12 semifinals will happen (on a wooden court), and the matchups are Elite Eight or beyond quality (Iowa State vs. Arizona; Houston vs. Kansas).
• The SEC and Big Ten top seeds get into action in the quarterfinals.
• Duke reached the ACC semifinal, but got quite the scare against Florida State, while playing without two starters.
• Connecticut and St. John’s are on a path to the Big East final, but each plays a potential bid thief in Georgetown and Seton Hall.

One big story yesterday was Miami Ohio losing in the quarterfinals to Buffalo for their first loss of the year. But it doesn’t look anything like a typical at-large profile. The debates have begun and will continue.

Our take: 12 people aren’t getting together to decide to leave out a team that hadn’t lost a game a day ago, regardless of the schedule. For all the talk of the weak schedule, they still have more Quad 2 wins (2) than total losses (1). Being a net positive in wins against the top two Quadrants compared to total losses is usually an indicator that you are getting in (and plenty of teams get in who do not meet that).

But they are going to be divisive, and our best guess is that they will get to play in Dayton against the toughest opponent they have faced this year in the play-in game.

Let’s get to the rest of the bubble.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Texas A&M-x, UCF-x, Santa Clara-x, Missouri-x
• Last Four In: Miami-Ohio-x, VCU, SMU-x, Oklahoma
• First Four Out: New Mexico, Texas-x, San Diego State, Auburn-x
• Next Four Out: Stanford-x, Indiana-x, California-x, Virginia Tech-x

(-x means the team is finished playing, teams in bold playing today)

We only have four teams on this list still playing heading into Friday.

We also have to monitor bid-thief situations. There aren’t many strong ones left. Georgetown and Seton Hall are still alive in the Big East, but have a tall task to win two. Nevada is playing Utah State today, and would qualify. That Atlantic 10 is in the quarterfinals today, and anyone but Saint Louis or VCU would qualify. All told, we are probably looking at an over/under of 0.5 additional bid thieves, reducing the at-large spots remaining.

The results of the four remaining teams will also shake things up.

I now have Oklahoma in the last spot, tentatively. Do I have a little bit of fear that this could be a Texas A&M-type situation where the tournament results don’t matter? Yes, but when Texas A&M made its big run in 2022, the two biggest wins happened on Friday and Saturday. Oklahoma comes into Friday with a more established resume, and the committee was debating it last night, no doubt. Oklahoma (19-14) now has a very favorable comparison to Texas (18-14), as Oklahoma actually has more top-quality wins, which we will cover below.

VCU probably needs to reach the A-10 final to stay above the cutline.

New Mexico and San Diego State go head-to-head late tonight, and the winner will improve their position. If the winner is going to face Utah State, it may be enough to get in (because, in part, there is no possibility of a loss directly taking away their spot).

Here’s an overview of some key metrics I like to look at, including the NET ranking, the Wins Above Bubble Ranking, and wins from the top two quadrants versus top-two-quadrant losses and other losses.

Team	NET	WAB	Q1/2 Wins	Q!/2 Losses	Other Losses
UCF	52	35	11	10	0
NC State	35	43	11	11	1
Texas A&M	43	40	9	11	0
Santa Clara	40	36	8	7	1
Missouri	58	41	9	12	0
Miami OH	64	37	2	0	1
SMU	37	45	9	13	0
VCU	44	42	5	7	0
Oklahoma	47	47	10	14	0
New Mexico	45	50	8	7	2
Texas	42	46	7	13	1
San Diego St	46	49	8	9	1
Auburn	39	44	7	15	1
Stanford	61	57	9	8	4

I have the teams outside the play-in games as they should be.They have an advantage over the true bubble in the number of quality wins relative to losses. Miami of Ohio is its own special case.

And then I think it comes down to 2-3 of VCU, SMU, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and San Diego State. Maybe Texas, but I think they and Auburn are in trouble based on their total losses relative to their number of top-quadrant wins.

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Thursday, March 12

The bracket is as of games played through Wednesday, March 11.

The situation near the bubble continued to fall apart on Wednesday. Yesterday continued the disaster that has been the last few weeks for teams right at the bubble. Texas and SMU lost and now await their fates, which could be decided by what happens in other conferences with automatic bids. Indiana lost to Northwestern and almost certainly ended their hopes. Cincinnati blew a lead to UCF, ending their chances and almost certainly locking UCF in now. California lost to Florida State.

The only winner right at the bubble was Auburn, which keeps hope alive but likely needs to beat Tennessee today (otherwise they will finish at 17-16 overall).

Oklahoma is the other big winner. The Sooners were 3-11 in SEC play and under .500 less than 3 weeks ago. Now, after all the smoke clears from the carnage of bubble teams burning their opportunities, Oklahoma has a five-game win streak after beating South Carolina, and plays Texas A&M today. Win again, and they get in the discussion right at the cutline as well.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Miami-Ohio, NC State, UCF, Santa Clara-x
• Last Four In: Missouri, VCU, SMU-x, Texas-x
• First Four Out: Auburn, New Mexico, Stanford-x, Oklahoma
• Next Four Out: Indiana-x, San Diego State, California-x, Virginia Tech-x

(-x means the team is finished playing)

The best outcome yesterday may have been for a team that did not even play. VCU picked up a Quad 1 win because Dayton went from 76 to 75, and so VCU’s road win at Dayton became a Quad 1 win, and the home win over the Flyers moved from Quad 3 to Quad 2. That may sound silly (and in a lot of ways it is), but the Selection Committee started narrowing down the field yesterday and will no doubt be going through these bubble teams in great detail today. When they look at their Team Sheet summaries and see two Quad 1 wins for VCU instead of one, that will absolutely matter in the debates.

As a result of that, and Texas and SMU losing again, I now have Texas barely hanging on as the last team in, and SMU just ahead of them.

That is not a spot you want to be in.

• Auburn can jump up and take that with an upset of Tennessee.
• Oklahoma can still add quality wins.
• The Mountain West teams (New Mexico or San Diego State) could move past them by reaching the final, or another bid thief could emerge.
• The Atlantic 10 could produce a bid thief, like Dayton.
• Something crazy could happen in a power conference, like the Big East.

McNeese, Idaho, and Lehigh Join the Party

We got three more auto bids on Wednesday, the last that will roll in until this Saturday, which produces a bunch of title games.

• McNeeese (Southland): McNeese is back and dangerous again, after beating Clemson in a 5 vs. 12 game last year.
• Lehigh (Patriot): The Mountain Hawks are back in the tournament for the first time since knocking off Duke in 2012 as a 15 seed. Some fans want Duke again, and it could happen as they project as a 16 seed.
• Idaho (Big Sky): The Vandals won Starch Madness as the 7 seed. This will be Idaho’s first appearance since March of 1990, when their opponent, Louisville, was coached by Denny Crum, and the movie Pretty Woman was about to be released in theaters.

Big Day of NCAA Tournament Team Showdowns

After a few days of limited action with teams we know will be in the tournament, Thursday gets us fired up with a preview of next week. Some matchups between two teams we project in the field (our projected seed in parentheses) include:

• Iowa State (3) vs. Texas Tech (5)
• Houston (2) vs. BYU (6)
• Arizona (1) vs. UCF (10)
• Kansas (4) vs. TCU (8)
• Louisville (6) vs. Miami (7)
• North Carolina (5)  vs. Clemson (8)
• Virginia (4) vs. NC State (10)
• Iowa (9) vs. Ohio State (9)
• Kentucky (8) vs. Missouri (11)

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Wednesday, March 11

The bracket is as of games played through Tuesday, March 10.

Four More Auto Bids on Tuesday

Tuesday was a busy night for teams clinching their spot in the field. We got the following on Tuesday:

• Gonzaga (WCC): The Zags surged in the second half to beat Santa Clara and now project as a 3 seed, no worse than a 4 seed.
• Wright State (Horizon): The Raiders won the conference tournament after coming in as the top seed, and we now project them right on the 14/15 seed cut line.
• Siena (MAAC): Siena is coached by former Syracuse star Gerry McNamara and will make their first appearance in the tourney since 2010, when it made three straight with Fran McCaffery as coach. Siena could be a 15 seed or a 16 seed, depending on what else happens in the remaining conference tournaments.
• Hofstra (CAA): Speaking of former star guards, Speedy Claxton, who starred at Hofstra before playing in the NBA, has his alma mater in the Dance for the first time since he starred there under head coach Jay Wright. Hofstra projects as a dangerous 13 seed. They have won 11 of 12 after a 4-5 start in conference play.

LIU also won the Northeast Conference over Mercyhurst to ensure they went into the tournament on a winning streak, but they had already secured the bid since Mercyhurst was ineligible.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Miami-Ohio, Missouri, NC State, Santa Clara
• Last Four In: UCF, Texas, SMU, VCU
• First Four Out: Indiana, Auburn, New Mexico, Stanford
• Next Four Out: Cincinnati, California, San Diego State, Virginia Tech

It was not a great opening day for the ACC teams at the bubble. Stanford got Goo Goo Doll’d and lost to Pittsburgh by a point, and Virginia Tech lost in OT to Wake Forest.

The one ACC team that did win yesterday was SMU, which ended a 4-game losing streak that has put them right on the bubble. They beat Syracuse, though they did so without B.J. Edwards, and now face a key game today against Louisville. If they win that, they are in for sure. A loss, though, will make for a nervous Sunday.

We also get a Cincinnati vs. UCF head-to-head game today, and Indiana, California, Texas, Auburn, and NC State are also all in action. That means eight of the 12 teams we have closest to the bubble are playing on Wednesday.

For more insights, check out our dedicated NCAA Bubble Watch 2026 page.

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, March 9

The bracket is as of games played through 7 pm ET Sunday, March 8.

Florida In, UConn Out as the Final No. 1 (For Now)

Connecticut’s loss at Marquette might have bumped the Huskies off the top line, and head coach Danny Hurley’s bump of an official on a late technical might also garner a suspension.

For now, that moves Florida into our final projected No. 1 seed spot as we head to conference tourney week. If the Gators win the SEC Championship, they will be our projected final top seed next Sunday. If they lose, it does open the door for Connecticut to still claim it.

Six Auto Bids Claimed

Five Conference Tournaments have concluded as of Sunday Night, but we actually have six auto-bids already decided. That’s because LIU will get the Northeast bid, because Mercyhurst is not yet eligible (the final will be Tuesday night).

The other winners are:

• Tennessee State (OVC)
• Northern Iowa (MVC)
• High Point (Big South)
• North Dakota State (Summit)
• Queens (Atlantic Sun)

For those of you who are also betting subscribers, we gave out Tennessee State (+210) and Northern Iowa (+500) as two of our three conference winner futures picks last week in our Conference Tournament article. We’ll be adding more this week.

Does Anyone Want to Win At the Bubble?

Stanford has actually moved up right to the cut line, and it’s because almost no one in our bubble watch won this weekend. In fact, of our Last 4 In, First 4 Out, Next 4 Out group entering the weekend, only Ohio State and VCU won. Stanford was right outside that Next 4 Out, but a big road win at NC State now keeps them alive for a bid.

All those losses near the bubble also kept some teams who also lost from really being in trouble entering this week. While you can never call a team on the 10 seed line a lock, we see a separation from most of the 10 seed and 9 seed line groups, and the actual bubble cut line as the final 11 seeds.

Here’s how we see it after a weekend where the bubble saw plenty of losses.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Miami-Ohio, Missouri, NC State, UCF
• Last Four In: Texas, Santa Clara, SMU, VCU
• First Four Out: Stanford, Indiana, Auburn, New Mexico
• Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, California, Cincinnati, San Diego State

Belmont might have been in at-large consideration if they had lost in the MVC Final, but a blowout loss in the quarters to Drake, giving up 100 points, is not going to get it done. So we have them outside the “Next Four Out” now.

New Mexico, Auburn, Indiana, SMU, Texas, NC State, and UCF have gone a collective 5-23 over the last two weeks. Woof.

It seems like the final couple of spots are there for the taking if any of these teams can string some wins together in the conference tournaments.

For more insights, check out our dedicated NCAA Bubble Watch 2026 page.

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, March 6

The bracket is as of games played through Thursday, March 5.

We will have an end-of-regular-season update after all the games on Sunday as well. 

No Big Changes Up Top, Plenty of Room for Moves in the Middle

The top of our seed line lists remained largely the same, other than some slight updates to the final No. 3 seed and last No. 5 seed spots.

The biggest moves in the bracket came in the middle seeds:

• TCU moves up to a No. 9, safely off the bubble now after the win at Texas Tech.
• Miami (the Florida version) continues to move up, now a No. 7 seed with potential to move higher.
• BYU continues to slide, now down to a No. 7 seed with potential to drop further.
• Georgia is now on the No. 8 line, but close to moving higher. There is a big tier that starts with the final No. 6 seed (currently St. Mary’s) and runs to the early 10 seeds, and we could see plenty of moves within that range.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Texas, Miami-Ohio, Texas A&M
• Last Four In: Ohio State, Santa Clara, SMU, VCU
• First Four Out: Auburn, New Mexico, Indiana, Virginia Tech
• Next Four Out: California, Cincinnati, San Diego State, Seton Hall

We are currently projecting Belmont (MVC) and South Florida (American) in the field as automatic bids, but both would be right on the bubble among the Last In/First Four Out discussion if they are at-large candidates.

After New Mexico’s costly home loss to Colorado State, we are moving VCU (not Auburn) up to our projected final slot. This is driven by their higher likelihood of getting a bid (either auto as an A-10 winner or at-large) than the others. Auburn might be ahead at the moment, but the path likely involves a win at Alabama on Saturday.

Meanwhile, SMU has lost three in a row to end up right above the bubble for now, but has a dangerous game Saturday at a resurgent Florida State.

For more insights, check out our dedicated NCAA Bubble Watch 2026 page.

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, March 2

The bracket is as of games played through Sunday, March 1. 

Big Moves Coming Into March

The weekend action saw some more shifts in our bracket, as several teams made big moves (both positive and negative).

Let’s hit some of the big ones:

• Ohio State IN / Indiana OUT: Ohio State got a big home win over Purdue on Sunday, while Indiana lost to Michigan State, and with Ohio State getting its best win of the year, they now move back into the field.
• Michigan State to a No. 2 / Iowa State drops to No. 3: For the first time, Sparty moves up to the 2 line after a big week with wins over Purdue and Indiana, while Iowa State’s home loss to Texas Tech drops them down a line.
• Gonzaga down to a No. 4 / Saint Mary’s up to a No. 7: Saint Mary’s won the season finale before these two head to the WCC Semis in a week, shifting both.
• Florida is now the top No. 2 Seed: We’ve had Florida on the 2 line for a while, and the consensus is now starting to shift toward our position. They are not only on the 2 line but solidly there with all the other results, and now have a No. 1 seed in sight.

Bubble Watch

• Last Four Byes: Texas, SMU, Miami-Ohio, TCU
• Last Four In: Texas A&M, Santa Clara, Ohio State, New Mexico
• First Four Out: Auburn, San Diego State, California, Indiana
• Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, VCU, USC, West Virginia

Of note here, we are currently projecting Belmont (MVC) and South Florida (American) in the field as automatic bids, but both would be right on the bubble among the Last In/First Four Out discussion if they are at-large candidates.

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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 27

The bracket is as of games played through Wednesday, Feb. 25. 

NCAA Tournament Predictions: Watch Our Latest Episode

Jason Lisk and Nick Bateman break down the bracket and debate which teams are on the “right” and “wrong” side of the bubble, along with the quagmire that is undefeated Miami Ohio.

Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the PoolGenius YouTube Channel for more data-driven March Madness content.

NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out

The bubble is still a mess, but we do have a clearer picture of who’s living on the cut line entering the week.

A few teams have moved from “sweating” to “barely safe,” while a handful of profiles with ugly records or thin Quad 1/2 results are now one bad loss away from sliding out entirely.

As Nick noted in the video, the Auburn vs. Indiana debate is still the perfect example of how thin these margins are, because it comes down to what the committee values more: record optics or strength of schedule.

As a result, here’s where we stand entering the weekend:

• Last Four Byes: Clemson, Texas A&M, Texas, TCU
• Last Four In: Miami (Ohio), Santa Clara, New Mexico, Indiana
• First Four Out: Auburn, Ohio State, San Diego State, Virginia Tech
• Next Four Out: California, USC, Belmont, VCU

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Monday, Feb. 23

This bracket is our NCAA Tournament Predictions as of games through Feb. 22.

Showdown Weekend Produces Some Shifts Up Top

It was a big weekend in college basketball, so we thought we would provide an updated outlook on where things stand entering the week.

• Duke‘s big win over Michigan swaps the two on the No. 1 line, with Duke now moving to the projected top overall seed, narrowly.
• Arizona really solidified itself as another No. 1 seed and looks like a virtual lock after winning at Houston.
• That Houston loss, along with losses by Iowa State and Illinois, pushes Connecticut back to the top seed line.

But that last No. 1 seed is now completely wide open, and the losses taken by three of the candidates leave the door open for defending champion Florida as well.

Add in Purdue, and we think the last spot comes down to one of those six teams, with four more almost certainly occupying the No. 2 seed line.

NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out

• Last Four In: Our final No. 11 seeds are Santa Clara vs. TCU and Missouri vs. Miami (Ohio) in the play-in games, with Indiana also a No. 11 seed.
• First Four Out: New Mexico, Ohio State, USC, and Virginia Tech
• Next Four Out: San Diego State, VCU, West Virginia, California

March Madness Bracket Predictions: Friday, Feb. 20

This bracket is current as of games played on Thursday, Feb. 19.

No. 1 Seeds: The Race Tightens

While many brackets had Connecticut on the No. 1 line, ours will stay the same from last week:

• MIDWEST – Michigan
• WEST – Arizona
• EAST – Duke
• SOUTH – Houston

That said, the race for at least the final No. 1 seed, and maybe two of them, tightened up over the last week. Arizona lost again at home to Texas Tech, Houston lost a big game at Iowa State, and Connecticut got upset at home by Creighton, a truly stunning result in a game they were favored by 15.5 points.

Meanwhile, Illinois bounced back with two wins since our last update; Iowa State got two big home wins over Kansas and Houston; and Florida stretched its run to six straight wins and 11 of the last 12.

NCAA Bubble Watch: Last Four In / First Four Out

• Last Four In: Our final No. 11 seeds are Santa Clara vs. Missouri and UCLA vs. Miami (Ohio) in the play-in games.
• Last Four Out: TCU, Ohio State, San Diego State, and New Mexico

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