2026 PoolGenius Bracket Recap: First Round to Elite Eight Performance

We review key 2026 NCAA Tournament results so far, and compare the positioning of PoolGenius bracket performance to the general public.

by Jason Lisk - Mar 31, 2026

In these tournament recaps, we’ll track the major results so far and see how PoolGenius customized brackets are performing against the overall public. After all, that’s what really matters.

We will publish these updates after the first weekend (First Round and Second Round) and again after the second weekend (Sweet 16 and  Elite Eight) concludes. After the tournament ends, we will post a final “Bracket Picks in Review” write-up.

As we write these recaps, we often speak in generalities. Depending on your pool rules and size, we know you may have picks that differ from those highlighted here. This is meant to provide an overview of how the picks have performed across all our recommendations compared to the public (the typical pool entrant).

2026 Bracket Recap: Schedule

Use the links below to jump to any round. We’ll keep updating this page as each recap goes live.

• First & Second Round Recap – Available Now
• Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Recap – Available Now
• Final Four Recap – Tuesday, April 7
• Overall Bracket Year in Review – Tuesday, April 14 (separate post)

Our Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Recap is now posted below. You can see the earlier First and Second Round recap here.

2026 Sweet 16 & Elite Eight Round Recap + Bracket Performance

Subscriber Survey Coming Soon!

Note: We will email NCAA Bracket Picks subscribers a link to our 2025 subscriber survey on Tuesday, April 7 — the day after the NCAA tournament title game.

Please take a few minutes to fill it out. It’s the only way we can measure how our brackets did in real-world pools, and we’d greatly appreciate your feedback. 

The 2026 Final Four is set. On one side, we have the two remaining No. 1 seeds, in one of the best matchups we have seen at the Final Four, as both have only two losses. That’s the fewest since Baylor and undefeated Gonzaga met in the 2021 title game after a Covid-shortened season. The only other similar semifinal was the 2015 game between then-undefeated Kentucky and Wisconsin (Wisconsin had 3 losses coming into the game).

On the other side, we have a Connecticut team that has won the title twice in the last three years, and an Illinois team that looks capable of winning it all after emerging from a tough South region. The Illini will try to become the first No. 3 seed to win since … 2011 Connecticut.

Public Performance: Final Four Picks Correct in 2026

In terms of pick popularity in bracket pools, here’s what an average of public picking trends data from multiple bracket contest sites looks like:

• 58.3% of brackets nationwide had No. 1 Michigan in the Final Four
• 57.6% had No. 1 Arizona in the Final Four
• 12.6% had No. 2 Connecticut in the Final Four
• 11.0% had No. 3 Illinois in the Final Four

Add those percentages up, and the “average” bracket is expected to have gotten 1.39 Final Four picks correct in 2026. So compared to the nation at large:

• o correct Final Four picks: Not great, Bob!
• 1 correct Final Four pick: Below average
• 2 correct picks: Above average
• 3 correct picks: More than double the public average, inside the top 10% of all brackets
• 4 correct picks: You are in a group that represents about 5 of every 1,000 brackets created

• 0.5% picked all Final Four teams correctly
• 7.8% picked three teams correctly
• 36.5% picked two teams correctly
• 41.5% picked one team correctly
• 13.7% got no Final Four teams right

So, any review of bracket performance in 2026 needs to be done in the context of those overall results.

As we often say, every year and every tournament is different. Last year, getting all four No. 1 seeds to the Final Four was often necessary to compete, as about 10% of all entries had them. This year, depending on the pool size, you may be in great shape if you had both Michigan and Arizona, plus one of the others, if your champion is alive.

Your Pool(s) May Not Reflect National Averages

Of course, the popularity of each team’s pick can vary substantially from pool to pool, especially in smaller pools.

For example, if you’re in a 10-entry pool situated on a direct route along I-80 that also happens to have a bunch of Duke haters, you might have an overabundance of the Big Ten teams in the Final Four. 

On the other hand, if you’re in a 100-person pool packed with fans of the ACC and SEC, simply having a few correct may have you in great shape.

PoolGenius Brackets vs The Public after the Elite Eight

The 2026 NCAA Tournament featured favorites mostly prevailing in the Sweet 16, though we did get slight upsets with No. 9 Iowa over No. 4 Nebraska (South) and No. 6 Tennessee over No. 2 Iowa State (Midwest).

Meanwhile, the Elite Eight was all about the UConn big shot to knock out Duke, which took out 64% of brackets with a Duke Final Four pick, nearly half of which had them in the championship game, and 25% of which had them winning it all.

Bracket Impact

Our brackets continued to separate from the average public bracket through the second weekend as the top seeds advanced, with all types finishing at least one full win better than the public in the Sweet 16, and more likely than the public to have multiple teams reach the Final Four.

The No. 1 seeds are our most common Final Four picks, and we outpaced the public there. But we are also ahead of the public in Illinois to the Final Four overall as well. Connecticut is the only team in the Final Four with more public support, with 13% of public brackets picking them.

Again, results will vary from subscriber to subscriber. Because we have half of the No. 1 seeds and an Illinois team that was present in some brackets, particularly at larger sizes, there will be plenty of variation this year. Some will not have a title game pick left; others might have three Final Four teams, with the championship game matchup still in play.

But on average, our Best Brackets are solidly ahead of the public right now.

Future Positioning

Because our Best Brackets are more likely to have all two or maybe even three Final Four teams alive — and have heavier exposure to No. 1 Arizona in Best Brackets and No. 1 Michigan across all brackets — they now hold a clear edge over the public in both potential and expected points moving forward.

Here is a summary of the average points so far and the average max available points left (using traditional 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring) for PoolGenius brackets versus the public:

Now, let’s take a look at the specific results that got us here.

Most Impactful Sweet 16 Results

Six of the eight game results were really good for the vast majority of subscribers. The Iowa advancement was fairly neutral, as only 2% of all brackets had them advancing. Tennessee was the only slightly negative outcome, as the public had more there, though it was still only 10% of brackets.

Most Impactful Elite Eight Results

The two No. 1 seeds advancing was a positive. Illinois to the Final Four is very entry-dependent. We have some alternative brackets with them on deeper runs, where those entries are in the running now.

Connecticut was the one net negative for this round. Our brackets almost universally had Duke, though they also almost universally did not have Duke winning the title. So Duke’s loss, across the entire spectrum, probably prevented the largest chunk of opponent entries from being a threat to pass some of ours that are well-positioned in points entering the Final Four, if the pool is small enough that few still have any points to gain on the left side of the bracket.

Looking to the Final Four

The table below shows each remaining team’s chances of reaching or winning the title game, along with the percentage of PG brackets and public entries picking them to do so.

To Reach the Title Game

To Win the Title

Arizona winning the title would almost certainly lead to the highest reported win rates among our subscribers, as the most common Best Brackets champion.

Michigan or Illinois winning it all would still result in a subset that matches or exceeds the public, and likely still result in solid win rates. Since some of those brackets are in larger pools, there could be potentially high-value results for those who do win.

Connecticut is the one remaining outcome that could sink results for a large swath of PoolGenius brackets, as we do not have them as the champion on any. The impact will be greater as pool sizes increase, because at smaller pool sizes, it’s possible that no one in the pool has a Connecticut champ bracket, or that the number who do is lower than the total payout spots.

Reminder: Survey Coming April 7

Enjoy the Final Four, and remember to complete our subscriber survey, which we will email you on Tuesday, April 7!

2026 First & Second Round Recap + Bracket Performance

We’ll dive into a detailed analysis of the first two rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament below, but first, here’s how PoolGenius (“PG”) subscriber brackets stack up against the public averages for picks that are correct or still alive after the Second Round.

• We had solid, not spectacular, first and second-round results overall, outperforming the public average by about one win in both rounds. This was true in both our Best Brackets and in all brackets across all scoring types.
• Our Best Brackets across all scoring types were the first-round leader (25.5 wins), while our alternate brackets in standard scoring were the second-round leader (11.3 wins).
• Of course, the Florida loss was a big one for a segment of brackets, as 16% of our champions are out, mostly because of it.
• Add in some Vanderbilt in large pools (who showed up in the finals on some brackets), and the last-second shot luck did not go our way in the Second Round, with two dramatic endings knocking out the two SEC teams.
• Our brackets do have a notable advantage in teams that can still reach the Elite Eight and the Final Four. The public average still available to reach the Elite Eight is 5.65, and all our bracket types are at least one full win higher than that entering the second week.
• Overall, our brackets have a higher average projected score (using 1-2-4-8-16-32 scoring) across all types than the public, with our alternates projecting slightly higher on average, thanks to a higher percentage of runner-up picks still in play.

First & Second Round Results: Few Key Upsets, Lots of Chalk

Before we get to specific region/pod breakdowns from the Second Round, let’s review some high-level observations about the tournament.

In our bracket pick analysis, we often discuss how winning a bracket pool doesn’t depend on how many picks you get right in a vacuum. You simply need to score more points than your opponents do. That means two things:

1. In years when many favorites make deep runs, you usually need to score a lot of points to win a pool.
2. In years when a lot of crazy upsets happen and/or several long shots make the Final Four, a score that isn’t usually considered very good can still win a prize.

This year is looking like a mix between the two.

We didn’t really see the crazy first-round upsets, as only one No. 12 seed advanced to the Round of 32. But we did see a No. 11, a No. 8, and a No. 6 reach the Sweet 16, and we have some close matchups in the next round that could flip things, as would yet another No. 1 seed upset.

If this second weekend produces any shockers (like when No. 11 NC State went to the Final Four two years ago), then it will be less chalky than it now appears.

While we look on target for an above-average scoring year in bracket pools overall, things could change quickly. Due to Florida’s loss, we know for sure that we will not repeat last year’s Final Four with all No. 1 seeds.

Most Impactful Games: First Round

Here are all First Round winners where our pick recommendation rate (in PG Best Brackets, all PG Brackets, or both) was at least 10% different from the public pick rate in the First Round, sorted from best to worst results (for us).

Observations

• The No. 7 vs. No. 10 games and No. 8 vs. No. 9 games saw us take a moderate to strong stand on all eight games, and the results were a straight split at 4-4, with the biggest positive there being Utah State’s win over Villanova, while the Saint Louis win over Georgia was the worst result for our picks.
• We made strong gains overall in the games involving No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, where, despite the High Point and VCU upsets, we gained about 0.6 wins on the public average.
• The rest of the gains came from going 16-0 on the top-four seed lines, where Nebraska’s win over Troy was the single best result, with 13% of the public picking the upset and losing out on points.

Most Impactful Games: Second Round

Below is every Second Round winner where our pick rate (whether in Best Brackets, all PoolGenius brackets, or both) differed from the public’s Second Round pick rate by at least 10%. We’ve sorted them from best to worst based on how the results played out for us.

Observations

• No. 5 St. John’s’ buzzer-beating win was the biggest positive result of the Second Round, as nearly half the public had someone else advancing (mostly No. 4 Kansas in that spot).
• On the other hand, No. 5 Vanderbilt’s final shot bouncing out was the biggest negative result, as our brackets rarely had No. 4 Nebraska advancing, while 36% of the public had the Cornhuskers in the Sweet 16.
• The No. 1 Florida loss doesn’t show up here, as our second-round pick rate was similar to the public’s, but we did lose a higher percentage of finalists with that loss.
• No. 11 Texas was picked by fewer than 10% of the public to make the Sweet 16, so there’s no notable disadvantage there.
• Meanwhile, two other No. 4 seeds to advance, Arkansas and Alabama, were also similar in our pick rate and the public’s.

2025 NCAA Tournament: Looking Ahead After the First Week

The dust has settled from the first two rounds. Now, let’s take a look at how the odds to win it all have moved for each team still standing.

How Each Remaining Team’s Odds To Win It All Have Changed

A lot of the tournament’s top contenders are still alive. Florida’s loss did shake things up a bit at the top, as Houston (the No. 2 seed in the same region) has seen the largest jump in title odds percentage.

Arizona is still up top, and Michigan has closed the gap, in part thanks to their own play, and in part due to a little more uncertainty with Iowa State and Joshua Jefferson after he missed Sunday’s game.

Texas has gone from less than o.1% to “so you’re saying we’ve got a chance” territory. Meanwhile, Nebraska has seen the largest relative jump, with No. 1 Florida no longer on their path, and their title odds have increased 5x compared to the beginning of the tournament.

The one team whose odds have dropped is No. 4 Arkansas in the West Region. They have not benefited from any direct upsets and still have both Arizona and Purdue in their path.

Second Weekend Overview & Beyond

As we head into the second weekend, Arizona remains the single-most important pick for most of our brackets, and definitely a significant majority of the Best Brackets.

Duke is part of a run to the Final Four in many brackets, but the Blue Devils as the champion would probably be the worst-case scenario for most, given their status as the most popular pick and not being a champion in any Best Brackets.

Of course, different bracket types call for different strategies. Some brackets lean on deep Houston runs, others have Michigan winning it all, and some alternates have Iowa State or Illinois.

If your bracket lost Florida, you probably want one of the unpopular teams not expected to get here to get to the Final Four out of the South.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Elite Eight

Here are the 16 teams still alive, sorted by the difference between the percentage of PoolGenius Best Brackets that have them advancing to the Elite Eight, compared to the public.

Observations

• We will make gains against the public with all the remaining No. 1 and No. 2 seeds if they win, with Purdue and Iowa State leading the way.
• Purdue, Iowa State, and Connecticut were all picked by about half of public brackets, while we have fairly strong positions on the first two, and feature over 70% on Connecticut in Best Brackets.
• The Illinois vs. Houston game is an interesting split. In Best Brackets, we actually have slightly more than half on Illinois, though it is fairly close between Illinois and Houston. In alternates, Houston’s pick rate in our brackets is closer to the public average.
• We do not have much on the line in the Nebraska vs. Iowa game, and neither do most brackets, as only 2% of brackets have Iowa and 7% have Nebraska. Though on balance, if you have no rooting interest for your own bracket, you are about 3.5 times more likely to see a Nebraska pick in your pool.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Final Four

Observations

• The remaining No. 1 seeds are picked by between 58% and 64% to reach the Final Four. Which means somewhere around 20% of all entries could have those three teams in a Final Four. So on average, the remaining No. 1 seeds should leave our entries in an advantageous position, as long as the title pick was among those.
• Iowa State and Purdue reaching the Final Four would be relatively bad for our Best Brackets, but could be positive for a subset of alternate brackets that are still in contention.
• Very few entries would get points if any of Alabama, Iowa, Nebraska, St. John’s, Tennessee, or Texas reach the Final Four.

The Most Impactful Teams to Reach the Title Game

Observations

• Arizona remains the single highest-leverage team to continue advancing in the most brackets.
• Houston becomes an interesting case where, if they advance to the Final Four, reaching a title game becomes a net positive, particularly against a Duke team that nearly half the public picks to be in the title game.
• Connecticut reaching the title game would also be a bad result, as 6% of the public would get points, and none of our brackets would.

The Most Impactful Teams to Win It All

Observations

• Arizona winning the title would be the most positive outcome for the vast majority of Best Brackets.
• Michigan would be the next-best overall result and lead to wins in some medium to larger-sized pools, as well as in some key alternate brackets at other pool sizes.
• Duke would be a worst-case scenario, as only 2% of Best Brackets have them as champion, and we are also a little underweight on the alternate brackets.