NCAA Bubble Watch 2025: Last Four In? First Four Out? (Updated)

Our NCAA Bubble Watch tracks which teams are in, out, and firmly on the bubble of the 68-team Men's NCAA Tournament field.

by Spencer Limbach - Mar 16, 2025

As we creep closer to March Madness, the “NCAA Bubble Watch” becomes a focal point for college basketball fans. With Selection Sunday approaching, teams are battling for coveted at-large bids in the 68-team field, where every Quad 1 victory strengthens a resume, and bad losses can shatter tournament dreams.

Our updated Bubble Watch analysis breaks down where bubble teams stand, who’s surging at the right time, and which programs need a strong conference tournament showing to secure their NCAA Tournament invitation.

Last NCAA Bubble Watch Update: Sunday, March 16

The following analysis was updated for all games played through Saturday, March 15.

For comprehensive tournament projections (beyond the bubble), check out our Bracketology or NCAA Bracket Predictions page. These provide the entire bracket with seeding forecasts updated multiple times weekly.

Bubble Watch Overview: Selection Sunday

• North Carolina Last In (For Now) – Weak Quad 1 record but benefits from ACC history and a tough strength of schedule.
• Xavier & Texas OUT – Texas dropped due to overall losses and weak non-conference SOS; Xavier lacks top-tier wins.
• Indiana OUT – Lots of Quad 1 chances but under .500 vs. top two Quads; outside Top 50 in NET & Strength of Record.
• San Diego State Still in Play – Holding on but could be overtaken if multiple bid stealers emerge.
• VCU, UAB & George Mason IN the Mix – Could shake up the bubble; VCU in if they lose today, George Mason or UAB winning would knock UNC out.
• Bubble Teams Should Root for Chalk – Bid steals from UAB and George Mason could push San Diego State and UNC out.

8 Seeds (Locks to Make Tourney)

• Marquette (100% chance) – lock
• UConn (100% chance) – lock
• Memphis (100% chance) – lock – projected auto bid
• Creighton (100% chance) – lock

9 Seeds (More Locks)

• Mississippi State (100% chance) – lock
• New Mexico (100% chance) – lock 
• Georgia (100% chance) – lock
• Oklahoma (100% chance) – lock

10 Seeds (More Locks)

• Baylor (100% chance) – lock
• Vanderbilt (100% chance) – lock
• Utah State (100% chance) – lock
• Drake (100% chance) – locked auto bid

On the Bubble (Currently In)

• West Virginia (100% chance) – lock
• UC-San Diego (100% chance) – locked auto bid
• Colorado State (100% chance) – locked auto bid
• Arkansas (95% chance)

Last Four In

• VCU (85% chance) – projected auto bid
• Boise State (51% chance)
• San Diego State (45% chance)
• North Carolina (43% chance)

First Four Out

• Xavier (42% chance)
• Texas (41% chance)
• Indiana (38% chance)
• Ohio State (1% chance)

Dropped Out

• SMU
• Wake Forest

Our NCAA Bubble Watch Methodology

Our Bubble Watch differs from typical bracketology projections that merely snapshot the current landscape. Instead, we forecast where teams will stand on Selection Sunday by analyzing:

• Completed regular season performance
• Strength of schedule metrics that heavily influence committee decisions
• Remaining opportunities for signature wins against tournament-caliber opponents
• Projected outcomes in conference tournaments
• Impact of potential bid stealers from mid-major conferences

For bubble teams, predictive metrics often tell a different story than results-based evaluations. The committee weighs both, but teams with strong quality metrics sometimes overcome questionable losses, while others with solid records but weak schedules face scrutiny.

Get more detailed analysis with our continuously updated Bracketology page, featuring complete tournament projections.

3 Critical Factors for Bubble Teams

Three key elements separate tournament-bound teams from those destined for the NIT (or new this year, the College Crown event in Las Vegas). Understanding these factors helps explain why some bubble teams with similar records face vastly different tournament prospects.

1. Quality Wins Matter

Teams in true bubble consideration need signature victories, particularly neutral-site wins and road games against tournament-caliber competition. At-large teams typically have multiple Quad 1 victories, while those with limited win opportunities against quality opponents face steeper challenges.

2. Avoiding Bad Losses

Nothing damages a resume more than losses to non-tournament teams, particularly those outside the top 100. Bubble-bursting losses in winnable games often prove fatal, especially for at-large bid hopefuls from major conferences who are expected to handle lesser competition.

3. Conference Tournament Implications

For many bubble teams, conference tournaments represent one final opportunity to strengthen their case. While some need just one more quality win to feel secure, others require a deep run or even reaching the title game to earn serious consideration from the committee.

Visit our NCAA Bracket Picks for fresh updates on how conference tournament results impact the bubble landscape.

FAQ: Bubble Watch & NCAA Tournament Selection

What Is the NCAA Bubble Watch?

When we use the term “Bubble Watch,” we analyze teams competing for the final at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. These teams on the “bubble” aren’t locks for the tournament but still have a chance at making the 68-team field based on their current resumes, remaining schedules, and performance metrics.

How Does the Selection Committee Evaluate Bubble Teams?

The Selection Committee considers multiple factors, including quality wins (especially Quad 1 victories), bad losses, overall strength of schedule, predictive metrics, results-based metrics, and more. This can get tricky when comparing bubble teams from mid-majors and the power conferences, as these criteria can be very different and lead to an “apples vs. oranges” scenario.

What Are Bid Stealers, and Why Do They Matter?

Bid stealers are teams that weren’t projected to earn at-large bids. If they play in a conference that did have at least one team projected to make the field, and they instead win the automatic bid, that moves a conference opponent that was slotted for an auto bid into the at-large pool. In turn, that knocks a team right on the bubble cut line to the wrong side.

On the other hand, when teams already projected as at-large bids win their conference tournaments, it can create more opportunities for bubble teams.

What Is the First Four in March Madness?

The First Four refers to the four opening games of the NCAA Tournament, played between eight teams. These include the four lowest-seeded automatic qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at-large teams.

Winners of these games advance to the traditional 64-team bracket, making the First Four a crucial step for bubble teams and lower seeds looking to make a tournament run.

What Does First Four Out Mean?

First Four Out refers to the four teams that narrowly missed making the NCAA Tournament field. These teams are considered the closest to receiving at-large bids but ultimately fall short of the 68-team cutoff.

Our Bracketology page provides a comprehensive overview of the projected NCAA Tournament field and breakdowns, such as listing teams by conference with their projected seeds. It offers a quick-glance guide showing who’s in and out, plus where each team stands.

On the other hand, our Bubble Watch focuses specifically on teams fighting for the final spots with in-depth human analysis of their situations.