Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks Strategy & Advice (2025)

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season includes no runaway favorites but several intriguing picks with low future value in NFL survivor pools.

by Jason Lisk - Sep 6, 2025

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks for an open receiver during the NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens on November 3, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD.

(Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve officially launched our 2025 NFL Survivor Picks product, which includes the first edition of our weekly strategy column for Week 1.

Each week, we’ll break down NFL survivor pick strategy using a combination of betting odds, projected pick popularity, and our future value modeling. This column helps explain not only which teams might be top picks, but why those picks matter based on contest format, risk profile, and long-term pool strategy.

We’ll be updating this post regularly throughout the preseason. As we get closer to kickoff (especially in the week leading up to the first games), expect daily adjustments and added commentary based on injury news, betting market shifts, and pool behavior trends.

Here’s what we’ve got so far:

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Sunday 9/7

Alert: Kyler Murray (illness) expected to play for Arizona

Welp, we have a news bomb, and it is not a fun one when Arizona has been our top-graded pick in most pools and leads our pick rates.

Adam Schefter reports that the Cardinals are adding Kyler Murray to the injury report because of an injury, but that he is still expected to play.

We have already seen the line drop a half-point, to -6. We’ll be monitoring this, and our relative pick grades could adjust based on where the numbers go and what other news comes out.

Sunday 9/7

Week 1 Sunday AM Pick Overview

Here’s how our customized subscriber pick recommendations stand as of Sunday at 9:00 AM ET, comparing public picking trends to the percentage of picks we’re recommending to PoolGenius subscribers (the “PoolGenius” column).

The last six columns in the table show how our recommended picks vary by subscriber pool format/rules. The table shows every team with at least 2% public popularity and/or is drawing at least one recommendation from PoolGenius to one of your pool entries.

TeamPublicPoolGeniusStandardStrikeRebuyByesMulti PicksPlayoffsWins Tiebreaker
Arizona15.2%33.8%29.6%35.6%44.3%34.6%37.4%37.9%40.4%
Denver30.6%29.4%31.9%27.6%14.9%22.0%28.7%31.9%26.6%
Philadelphia15.2%16.1%22.7%18.2%2.2%15.9%8.7%12.3%13.0%
Jacksonville3.2%13.6%8.7%14.4%31.8%15.9%17.0%13.6%16.9%
Washington13.6%4.7%4.7%2.1%3.7%2.7%5.8%2.5%1.6%
Cincinnati8.6%2.3%2.4%1.9%2.8%1.1%2.3%1.7%0.4%
Indianapolis0.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.6%
Pittsburgh2.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Entries can fall under more than one category. For example, a pool that requires multiple picks in future weeks and allows a strike would be separately included in the percentages for each.

This week, the Thursday game was our third-most common recommendation. Their advancement put a larger premium on survival odds for the remaining teams, so we saw a relative EV fall-off for the riskier picks. Here is how things are shaping up heading into the Sunday games.

  • Our most common recommendation is Arizona, at a rate about double the field.
  • We are about even with the public on Denver, which has the highest win odds but a reduced EV because of its popularity.
  • Jacksonville is a team we are higher on, while being lower on Cincinnati and Washington (and everyone else drawing some popularity).

Week 1 Expectations

Here are the overall expectations across all pick recommendations as of this morning.

  • With Philadelphia already advancing and being heavier on the Cardinals, we have an overall advancement edge of 77% vs. 73% at our model odds and 78% vs. 74% at market odds.
  • We also have a decent EV edge over the public this week, with our picks at least slightly above on the Eagles and being on Arizona and Denver.
  • We are actually using slightly less overall future value, a function of being a little higher on Arizona and Jacksonville and not siphoning off future value on all the secondary picks. A percent here and there is used. We averaged 0.8 FV used across our picks compared to 1.0 for the public.

Saturday 9/6

Circa Survivor Week 1 Picks Announced

The Circa Survivor contest closed with 18,718 entries this year, for a total prize pool of $18,718,000.

Here are the announced pick rates for Week 1:

Here was every team picked by 2.0% or more of the entries:

  • Denver 38.4%
  • Arizona 22.3%
  • Philadelphia 9.7%
  • Jacksonville 8.8%
  • Cincinnati 6.6%
  • Washington 6.1%
  • Pittsburgh 2.6%

We got 24 no picks this year, and 38 others have also been eliminated (36 on Kansas City and 2 on Dallas). Meanwhile, 1,823 (nearly 10% of the pool) have already advanced with the first two game results. Most of those were on the Eagles, but 12 entries picked the Chargers.

Denver, as we expected, was the most popular pick for Week 1, checking in at 38.4%. Meanwhile, Arizona closed at 22.3%. Those were close to our projections (Denver 34% and Arizona 24%), with Denver slightly higher than projected, but the two made up a similar percentage of the total pool.

The biggest surprise was how many people picked Jacksonville. It is a low future value pick that makes sense in this contest, but it is still surprising to see that many entries roll with the Jaguars. The Bengals and Commanders, meanwhile, were underpicked compared to national data.

Saturday 9/6

Survivor Bowl 1: Week 1 Pick Rates

The submission deadline for the first week of Survivor Bowl 1 has passed. We had 341 total picks submitted. Here is a breakdown.

TEAMPICKSPERCENT
DEN11433.4%
ARI8324.3%
PHI3710.9%
JAX257.3%
CIN226.5%
WAS185.3%
PIT113.2%
LAR61.8%
MIA51.5%
NE41.2%
IND30.9%
SF20.6%
GB20.6%
ATL20.6%
KC20.6%
TB10.3%
NO10.3%
LV10.3%
HOU10.3%
DAL10.3%

Those pick rates on Denver and Arizona are very similar to our projections in the Circa Survivor contest. That is a function of a sharper pool valuing Arizona higher than the national public pick rates.

Also, contestants do have access to our tools and data. That could explain how Jacksonville, which makes sense as a low future value pick at lower popularity, moves past Cincinnati and Washington in contest popularity. Ironically, that actually makes the Bengals and Commanders relatively better value picks in this Survivor Bowl.

In total, 20 different teams were picked, including five solo picks on different underdogs.

We also have a head-to-head showdown in the Indianapolis vs. Miami pick’em contest, with 3 on the Colts and 5 on the Dolphins.

In total, we have picks on at least one team in 14 of the 16 matchups. The only ones without a pick are the last two primetime games: Buffalo vs. Baltimore and Minnesota vs. Chicago.

Friday 9/5

Friday Week 1 Survivor Strategy Breakdown

We’ve had plenty of time to develop our Week 1 strategy, and the conditions have largely stayed the same. We’ve seen a little upward line movement that has shifted some margin numbers, but for the most part, the teams we expected to be in survivor consideration still are.

We already had one of those teams survive, despite a real sweat after Eagles defensive lineman Jalen Carter got ejected before playing a snap for spitting on Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Philadelphia was being picked by about 15% of survivor entries nationally, and made up about 18% of our recommendations (that number could go down as more subscribers check in for the first time and have Philadelphia unavailable).

So let’s get to the strategy overview.

NOTE: In the future, this analysis will be behind a paywall (subscriber-only), but since we have many free trial Week 1 users, it is available for everyone this week.

Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos

Arizona and Denver are our top two pick recommendations across all pools.

  • Arizona is rated a little higher in larger pools and those with special rules. This includes pools with double-pick weeks, holiday pick weeks, strikes, buybacks, and more. Arizona’s lower future value is more attractive in those types of pools, though it is a pretty good pick in all formats.
  • Denver, meanwhile, has the highest win odds of the week. The EV is somewhat offset by the higher projected popularity, which has ticked up through the week. But they are still the highest EV pick remaining after Philadelphia advanced on Thursday.

After a semi-popular pick advances on Thursday, all teams will see their EV drop a bit, but you will often see that the team with the higher odds to advance in upcoming games sees a relatively smaller drop. That’s because we now know that a chunk of the pool is through.

So you might have also seen a slight adjustment once the Philadelphia result happened, based on relative EV.

Denver is the most common pick in standard rules pools, narrowly ahead of Arizona, with heavier usage in smaller standard pools.

Philadelphia as the Alternate

We ended up with Philadelphia in the third position, at 18% recommended.

That was much heavier in standard pools (26%). In the smallest pools, which are unlikely to get deep in the season, the Eagles may have been the top recommended pick.

In those pools, things like a potentially high-value spot in Week 15 are less important to save, and the Eagles became a top option because of their relatively higher EV.

Jacksonville as the Riskier Contrarian Pick

Jacksonville has emerged as the low future value contrarian pick in larger and specialty rules pools. Jacksonville is closer to Philadelphia in overall usage (13%) and could potentially overtake the Eagles in the final numbers by Sunday.

Jacksonville is occupying the third position in the pools opposite Philadelphia. They are by far the clear third choice in things like rebuy pools, future multi-pick pools, and larger contests, while making up only 8% of picks in standard rules pools overall.

Some Cincinnati and Washington but Mostly Fading

Our models are down on both Cincinnati and Washington, two teams with moderate popularity, at about 22% combined. They make up about 6% of our recommendations.

Both are below the top three, even in market odds, and have at least moderate future value, at 11th and 12th entering the weekend.

Pretty Much Avoiding Everyone Else

We have only 9 total other picks on teams other than the ones listed above. With rounding, that works out to 0.0% of all pick recommendations.

Those other picks are on the Colts and Steelers in some rebuy and multi-pick pools.

Meanwhile, “everyone else” is making up about 14% of all survivor picks this week.

So the overall strategy is to play the best picks against the other 36% of pool picks (including Cincinnati and Washington for the most part). Our picks have a higher percentage of the popularity, but also much better EV and win odds, while not really using more future value (because of the Arizona and Jacksonville trade-offs).

Thursday 9/4

Thursday Night Football Has Eagles Survivor Relevance

We get a Thursday Night opener with Survivor importance to start the year. The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the four most popular survivor picks this week, starting off against Dallas. As an 8.5-point favorite with moderate popularity, and most of the pool concentrated elsewhere, the Eagles do have the highest EV of the week.

Of course, they also have high future value, something you have to weigh against the pick. That makes them a relatively better pick in smaller, standard pools that may not last late into the year.

One other thing to think about is how full your specific contest is. If it’s one that is still going to add a lot of entries after Thursday Night, the Eagles become a better EV play, because any additional entries that come in will be unable to pick them. That would hold their popularity even lower in these pools. So if you are playing entries in a contest that is going to need a lot of late entries to check in, picking the Eagles on some of yours isn’t the worst decision.

Tuesday 9/2

Circa Survivor Product Launches

New for 2025, we have launched a Circa Survivor product specialized for the Circa Survivor contest, which had over 14,000 participants last year and is tracking for even more this year.

The product is currently in Beta version and free for everyone to use, but a paywall will soon go up, and it will be its own separate product. It will not have the “My Pool Picks” feature and provide specific pick advice for entries, as we felt that giving similar pick advice to a bunch of different entries would not be the best way to serve the Circa audience.

We do, however, have some of the other familiar tools, but they are applied to Circa-specific rules, like separate pick weeks with the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. That includes the Data Grid, Season Planner, Optimal Path, and EV Calculator, in addition to historic contest data with past pick results for each entry going back to 2020.

We are also making contest-specific pick popularity estimates for the upcoming week and future weeks. The current-week popularity estimates will be displayed in the Data Grid, while the future popularity projections are incorporated into our Future Value rankings.

The Circa Survivor content (articles and videos) will also be available in an articles link tab within the product.

Tuesday 9/2

Updates to Future Value and Projections

If you have been regularly checking our Season Planner and Optimal Path future week odds and our Future Value ranks, you may notice some slight changes to some compared to what you would have seen last week. This is a function of a few different updates we made over the weekend in preparation for the start of the season:

  • After reviewing market data and power ratings, some slight power rankings tweaks were made (the early Season Planner and OP odds were based on our preseason power ratings, which already had a market component built in).
  • We did an in-depth review and updated future-week pick popularity projections. This led to some teams looking like top options, particularly in weeks where other top teams have high future value and will spread their usage out, going up in popularity, which can impact future value/future-week EV projection.
  • We instituted a Week 18 tweak to address some teams with higher “rest starter” risk being projected extremely highly in Week 18. The teams impacted here were those with >50% odds to win the division and/or >10% odds to get the 1 seed, with Buffalo getting the largest downward tweak to its Week 18 odds. In early Optimal Path runs, saving Buffalo for Week 18 was showing up, but we think that they have a high enough risk of resting starters that we want to account for that.

Detroit, for example, dropped a bit in our Future Value relative ranks. It wasn’t a big drop in actual Future Value, but it was enough to drop them just below some others like San Francisco and Tampa Bay.

This was a result of both a slight power rating downgrade based on the market data and Week 1 and Week 2 look-ahead line, and a review of the future week popularity.

Detroit plays a very difficult schedule, and only a few clear spots exist on the schedule. The only weeks they are currently among our Top 5 in projected win odds for an individual week are:

  • Week 4 vs. CLE (81%)
  • Week 12 vs. NYG (76%)
  • Week 14 vs. DAL (71%)
  • Week 16 vs. PIT (66%)

The first three weeks are the weeks we project them with higher popularity, at 31%, 26%, and 17%, respectively. Outside that Week 4 spot, there aren’t many other tempting early weeks where we currently project them to have notable popularity. As a result, their popularity is a bit higher in those late spots than some higher-value teams, and that relatively higher popularity holds those spots down from being projected for even better EV.

Of course, this could all change if, for example, Detroit wins in Week 4, some of the other popular choices lose, and a much higher percentage of advancers have to use Detroit, limiting their popularity for Weeks 12, 14, and 16.

Week 1 Five Most Popular Survivor Picks

We have a clear top five heading into Week 1. Unless major surprises emerge before kickoff, these teams should make up the vast majority of survivor picks:

  • Denver Broncos (29%) vs. Tennessee Titans

  • Arizona Cardinals (15%) at New Orleans Saints

  • Washington Commanders (15%) vs. New York Giants

  • Philadelphia Eagles (12%) vs. Dallas Cowboys

  • Cincinnati Bengals (9%) at Cleveland Browns

No other team is currently drawing more than 3% of picks. Here are notes on each option:

Denver Broncos

Denver is the largest favorite of the week, with the line moving between -7.5 and -9. Facing the Titans with rookie QB Cam Ward making his first start, the Broncos are also the most popular survivor choice.

In a week featuring road teams (Arizona, Cincinnati) and NFC East matchups (Philadelphia, Washington), Denver’s status as the clear favorite explains its heavy usage. The Broncos’ popularity lowers expected value somewhat, but they remain a solid choice. This projects as their highest win-odds matchup of the year, though Weeks 7 (vs. Giants) and 10 (vs. Raiders) could provide better value if usage shifts elsewhere.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has the lowest future value of the top five, favored by 6.5 at New Orleans. Some will shy away from the road spot, but the Saints enter 2025 as our 32nd-rated team with the league’s lowest over/under win total.

Saints Rookie HC Kellen Moore just named Spencer Rattler the starter days ago. With good win odds and moderate popularity, Arizona is a strong EV option—likely more popular in sharper pools. This is one of their best deployment spots, along with Week 5 (vs. Tennessee).

Washington Commanders

Washington opens as a 6-point favorite against division rival New York. The Giants should be improved, with Russell Wilson starting and new depth behind him (rookie Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston).

The Commanders’ future value is middling (tied for 12th), but they have multiple similar spots ahead. If they match 2024’s level, they’ll remain viable later in the season.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia is favored by a touchdown over Dallas, with some books already at -7.5 following the Cowboys’ trade of Micah Parsons to Green Bay.

The Eagles have the second-highest win odds but lower popularity, making them the highest EV play of Week 1. The trade-off is that they also carry the most future value of any option this week. With multiple strong later spots (Week 8 vs. Giants, Week 15 vs. Raiders), saving them may be optimal in larger pools, though in smaller pools they’re a strong opening choice to consider.

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati checks three public perception negatives:

  1. Division game

  2. On the road

  3. Recent slow starts—including last year’s Week 1 loss to New England that wiped out survivor pools.

Those factors suppress popularity, giving them reasonable EV. The Bengals’ 2025 schedule is tough, and they don’t have many clear survivor spots beyond Week 8 (vs. Jets). If you can stomach picking them again in Week 1, they make sense.

Tuesday 8/26

Denver’s Odds Tick Upward

The Denver Broncos are likely to be the most popular Week 1 survivor option, and their odds have gone up another half-point this week. They are the largest favorite of Week 1 right now, standing in as -8 against Tennessee.

In other news, Terry McLaurin has officially signed a new contract, and his holdout situation is over. He is expected to play in Week 1 for Washington when they face the Giants. The Washington line has also moved up another half-point after that news, and they are favored by 6 points.

Meanwhile, we have not really seen another contrarian candidate really emerge for Week 1, outside of the Top 5 by win odds. No one else is currently favored by more than a field goal.

Wednesday 8/20

Some QB Situations Clarified

With two weeks to go, we are getting a few more announcements of QB situations around the league.

  • Cleveland named Joe Flacco as the Week 1 starter against Cincinnati
  • Indianapolis named Daniel Jones as the starter over Anthony Richardson

That leaves just the New Orleans Saints as the lone team to announce their starting QB for the season opener, and new head coach Kellen Moore is not ready to do that yet.

The Indianapolis game doesn’t really have survivor implications, but the Cleveland and New Orleans decisions do. The Browns going with the veteran in Week 1 is not a surprise, and that line has not moved.

The Saints are still a 6-point underdog against Arizona, and the announcement may not move the needle much, as neither Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough projects as significant upgrades, though starting the rookie might increase the variance on the outcome.

Thursday 8/14

Contract Holdouts Could Impact Survivor Options in Week 1

We are about three weeks out from the opening games, and several situations could impact the top options in survivor pools and cause line movement in either direction.

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin Holding Out

The Washington Commanders project as one of the more popular options in Week 1, and WR Terry McLaurin is still holding out for a new contract. If that continues into Week 1 preparation, we could see some downward movement from the current -6.5 point line against the Giants.

Remember, just last year, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase had a contentious holdout and returned to workouts with just two weeks before the first game. He was still questionable to play on Sunday entering the weekend. With WR Tee Higgins also missing due to injury, the line dropped 1.5 points in that game, and Cincinnati lost a game in which they managed only 10 points against New England, their worst offensive output all year.

Cowboys DE Micah Parsons Holding Out

Meanwhile, DE Micah Parsons is holding out in Dallas. The Cowboys play in the season-opening game against the Philadelphia Eagles, another of the biggest favorites in Week 1 (Philadelphia -7). Parsons’ presence (or absence) could move the line either direction, as Dallas really needs their best defensive player against the Eagles.

Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson Practicing, But Might Not Play?

Finally, Cincinnati Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is a “hold-in”. He is practicing with the team, but still says that he will not play unless he has a new contract. Cincinnati opens with the Cleveland Browns as a 5.5-point favorite on the road.

Friday 8/1

Early Week 1 Survivor Outlook

The Week 1 slate is out, and NFL survivor pool players finally have real numbers to work with. While we’re still several weeks from kickoff, the combination of betting lines, early pick trends, and long-term planning factors gives us a first look at how things may unfold.

This year’s opening week doesn’t offer a clear-cut consensus option. Only one team is favored by more than a touchdown, and just four teams are favored by six or more points. It’s shaping up as a week where no single team dominates usage — and where strategic tradeoffs will come into play right from the start.

Top Survivor Option Overview

Here’s a breakdown of the teams most likely to be in Week 1 consideration based on spread strength, future flexibility, and pick dynamics:

  • Denver (-7.5) vs. Tennessee: The Broncos are the biggest favorite on the board. They have enough long-term flexibility to be usable here without much downside, and they’re likely to be a popular option across all pool formats.

  • Philadelphia (-7) vs. Dallas: One of the strongest teams on the board, both in terms of odds and roster quality. While they’re often a team to save, the Week 1 setup is strong enough that many survivor entries (especially in smaller pools) may opt to use them right away.

  • Arizona (-6) at New Orleans: The Cardinals stand out as one of the better Week 1 options. They don’t project as a long-term survivor asset, and this road matchup may be their best spot all year. If confidence in the Saints remains low, Arizona’s popularity could spike by kickoff.

  • Washington (-6.5) vs. NY Giants: A favorable home matchup against a divisional opponent. Washington isn’t a team most players plan to save, making them a reasonable early-season deployment candidate.

  • Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland: The Bengals are a moderate road favorite with solid but not prohibitive future value. However, recent Week 1 survivor players’ flashbacks could hold down their popularity. If you’re looking for a slightly contrarian option with a solid win profile, Cincinnati is worth a look.

Other Considerations

If you’re playing in a large pool, using multiple entries, or looking for pick leverage, a few more teams may come into play depending on your setup:

  • Pittsburgh (-3) at NY Jets: A low-spread road game, but the Steelers are a team with few clear future weeks to target. In risk-tolerant formats, they’re at least worth examining.

  • New England (-3) vs. Las Vegas: Not a standout pick by spread, but the Patriots are unlikely to offer better spots later. In a week without dominant options, they’re part of the broader conversation.

  • Jacksonville (-2.5) vs. Carolina: A risky option due to the low spread, but Jacksonville isn’t a team most entries will want to save. In deep or aggressive pools, they could be a differentiator.

Teams to Save for Later

Some Week 1 favorites look appealing on the surface but are better saved due to higher strategic value later in the season — or because their Week 1 matchups carry added risk.

  • Kansas City (-2.5) vs. LA Chargers: The Chiefs are always one of the most valuable teams to save, particularly with strong projected spots in mid- and late-season. However, Week 1 is not the time to use them, especially with this spread hovering around a field goal.

  • San Francisco (-1.5) at Seattle: The 49ers don’t offer much margin as a small road favorite, and their long-term survivor value is too high to justify using them this early.

  • Green Bay (-2.5) vs. Detroit: Green Bay is projected to have better usage spots in the future. With a narrow spread against a top opponent, they’re better left untouched.

  • Tampa Bay (-1.5) at Atlanta: While Tampa might not be a high-value hold, they still offer more future utility than teams like Arizona or New England. In a Week 1 setting with tighter spreads, this doesn’t look like the right time to use them.

If you want to see what the numbers say for your pool as we approach Week 1, go set it up in our NFL Survivor Picks product and get our customized pick recommendations.

Friday 8/1

More 2025 Preseason Survivor Content

Looking to go even deeper before Week 1 kicks off? We’ve published a number of 2025-specific articles to help you build better survivor strategies, whether you’re entering a massive national contest, managing multiple entries, or just aiming to outlast your office pool.

Here are some highlights:

We’ll continue to release new survivor strategy content throughout the preseason — so check back regularly or sign up for email alerts to stay in the loop.

FYI

Survivor Strategy Articles

If you’re serious about winning your survivor pool, you need to understand the strategies that give you a long-term edge.

You can start with our free collection of survivor strategy articles, which cover the core concepts behind our customized recommendations:

We have also written a survivor strategy e-book that goes more in-depth into many key topics for Survivor, which you can download for free here.

FYI

About Our Survivor Pool Advice

Each week, we break down the pros and cons of the top survivor pick options — but we never claim there’s a single “best” pick for every pool.

That’s because the optimal pick depends on your specific context:

  • In larger pools, you often need to take more risk and avoid the crowd to maximize upside.

  • In pools with non-standard rules (like strike formats or multi-pick weeks), the best pick can shift dramatically.

  • If you’re using multiple entries, how you spread or concentrate picks becomes a critical factor.

  • And of course, your available teams and up-to-date lines matter — things most static articles don’t adjust for.

That’s why we built the NFL Survivor Picks product: to give you fully customized picks, updated multiple times a day, based on every key strategic factor.

Since 2017, our subscribers have reported over $6.5 million in survivor pool winnings using our tools and recommendations.

This article explains some of the reasoning behind the product — and gives you a strategic foundation to make smarter picks all season long.

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