Survivor Loser Pool Week 4 Picks and Future Rankings
Who are the most valuable losers in the NFL when it comes to survivor pools? We look at the future value in Loser pools and Week 3 picks.
by Jason Lisk - Oct 2, 2026
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The biggest underdog isn’t automatically the best Loser Pool pick. We also want to consider how valuable that team could be later in the season and whether this week’s matchup represents an unusually good opportunity to use it.
Week 4 presents an interesting version of that decision.
Tennessee and Miami have the two highest projected loss probabilities on the board, but they also rank No. 2 and No. 1 in our updated Loser Pool Future Value rankings.
Usually, that would make us hesitant to spend them.
But Tennessee is different this week. The Titans have 84% loss odds at Baltimore, and this is currently their best projected loss opportunity of the entire season.
There’s also a potential popularity dynamic worth considering. Baltimore and Minnesota are two of the most obvious choices in traditional Survivor Pools this week, and are mostly available. In Loser Pools, that means picking Tennessee or Miami against those teams, but the Titans and Dolphins are even higher future value, have already each had weeks of usage, and are likely going to be less owned than Baltimore and Minnesota are in regular survivor pools.
That means more picks going to riskier Week 4 options, and potentially high EV for taking the top two. So it is very much a “is this a good week to cash in really high loser EV.”
Week 4 Loser Pool Future Value Rankings
| Rank | Team | FV Rating | Weeks Below Baseline | Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami | 12.43 | 12 | 1 |
| 2 | Tennessee | 8.38 | 9 | 2 |
| 3 | NY Giants | 8.16 | 9 | 4 |
| 4 | Arizona | 5.63 | 8 | 3 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | 4.11 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Cleveland | 4.09 | 6 | 5 |
| 7 | NY Jets | 3.29 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | 3.02 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Atlanta | 2.21 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | LA Chargers | 2.20 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Washington | 1.93 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Carolina | 1.71 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Las Vegas | 1.68 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Dallas | 1.63 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Indianapolis | 1.59 | 3 | 12 |
| 16 | Green Bay | 1.43 | 3 | 19 |
| 17 | New Orleans | 0.98 | 2 | 15 |
| 18 | Philadelphia | 0.59 | 3 | 22 |
| 19 | New England | 0.55 | 1 | 14 |
| 20 | Chicago | 0.46 | 2 | 18 |
| 21 | Kansas City | 0.32 | 2 | 20 |
| 22 | San Francisco | 0.20 | 1 | 23 |
| 23 | Minnesota | 0.04 | 1 | 21 |
| 24T | Baltimore | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Buffalo | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Seattle | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | LA Rams | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Detroit | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Houston | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Cincinnati | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Jacksonville | 0.00 | 0 | — |
| 24T | Denver | 0.00 | 0 | 24 |
Miami remains No. 1 in our Loser Pool Future Value rankings, but Tennessee and the New York Giants are now not far behind in terms of their usefulness across the remaining schedule.
The Giants have continued their rise, moving to No. 3, with nine remaining weeks where their projected win odds fall below our weekly baseline.
Tampa Bay is another notable mover, climbing to No. 5. The Buccaneers have several potentially useful loss spots ahead, beginning immediately in Week 5 at Dallas.
But Future Value alone doesn’t tell us which teams to use. The important question is whether this week provides a good enough opportunity to justify spending that value.
For Tennessee, the answer may be yes.
Week 4 Loser Pool Pick Analysis
Below is a table showing some relevant information to consider as you weigh your Week 4 picks. We show the loss odds, the team’s Future Value rank, where this week ranks among its projected loss opportunities this season, and its best remaining loss odds after Week 4.
| Team | Opponent | Week 4 Loss Odds | FV Rank | Season Loss-Odds Rank | Best Remaining Loss Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | at BAL | 84% | 2 | 1st | 80% (W12 at JAC) |
| Miami | at MIN | 81% | 1 | T-3rd | 86% (W11 at BUF) |
| New England | at BUF | 75% | 19 | 1st | 64% (W15 at KC) |
| LA Chargers | at SEA | 73% | 10 | T-1st | 73% (W8 at LA) |
| Las Vegas | vs KC | 69% | 13 | T-2nd | 71% (W9 at SF) |
| Washington | vs IND (N) | 67% | 11 | 3rd | 74% (W6 at SF) |
| Philadelphia | vs LA | 65% | 18 | 1st | 64% (W17 at SF) |
| Tampa Bay | vs GB | 64% | 5 | 6th | 80% (W5 at DAL) |
| Carolina | vs DET | 64% | 12 | T-3rd | 67% (W13 at MIN) |
| Dallas | at HOU | 60% | 14 | 3rd | 70% (W15 at LA) |
| NY Jets | at CHI | 60% | 7 | 8th | 79% (W9 at KC) |
| NY Giants | vs ARI | 55% | 3 | 12th | 84% (W14 at SEA) |
Is This the Week to Use Tennessee?
Tennessee has the highest projected loss probability of Week 4 at 84% against Baltimore.
The obvious drawback is Future Value.
The Titans rank No. 2 in our updated rankings and have nine future weeks below our weekly baseline. This is clearly a team that could be useful multiple times later in the season.
But there’s an important difference between Tennessee this week and some of the high-Future-Value teams we’ve recommended saving previously:
This is Tennessee’s best projected loss opportunity of the season.
Their best remaining projection is 80% loss odds at Jacksonville in Week 12. That is likely to be another high EV spot. There are several other useful spots, but none currently provide as much safety as picking them to lose to Baltimore this week.
So using Tennessee isn’t wasting Future Value in a mediocre spot. You would be spending a valuable team at the point where we currently project that value to be at its highest.
That becomes even more interesting if Tennessee doesn’t dominate pick popularity.
New England and the Chargers Have Less Future Cost
If you want to preserve Tennessee and Miami, New England and the Los Angeles Chargers provide the clearest alternatives.
New England has 75% loss odds at Buffalo, the third-highest projection on the board.
More importantly, this is New England’s best projected loss opportunity of the season, and the Patriots rank only No. 19 in Future Value. Their best remaining projection after Week 4 is just 64% loss odds at Kansas City in Week 15.
That creates a strong opportunity-cost argument for using New England now. However, this will also likely drive extreme ownership to the Patriots and they could be a very popular choice this week.
The Chargers have a similar profile, but also are likely less available to some, as they were also an option in Loser Pools last week.
They have 73% loss odds at Seattle, and that is tied for their best projected loss opportunity of the season. The Chargers rank No. 10 in Future Value, so there is more reason to preserve them than New England, but considerably less than Tennessee or Miami.
The tradeoff is straightforward.
You can preserve the premium future teams by taking New England or the Chargers, but you are accepting a meaningful increase in current-week elimination risk. Tennessee’s 84% loss odds are nine percentage points higher than New England and 11 points higher than the Chargers.
Whether that additional safety is worth spending Tennessee becomes partly a question of pick popularity and pool size.
Miami Is Still the Premium Save
Miami once again sits near the very top of the board, with 81% loss odds at Minnesota.
And once again, the Dolphins rank No. 1 in Future Value.
Unlike Tennessee, this is not Miami’s best projected loss opportunity. We currently project 86% loss odds at Buffalo in Week 11, and Miami has an unusually deep collection of attractive spots throughout the rest of the schedule.
That doesn’t make Miami a bad Week 4 pick. An 81% probability of losing is extremely valuable.
But if we’re deciding which premium Future Value team to spend this week, Tennessee has the stronger case.
Tennessee gives you slightly more immediate safety at 84%, and you’re using the Titans in what currently projects as their best loss opportunity. Miami provides slightly less safety while sacrificing the most valuable future team in our rankings.
The potential popularity dynamics could change that comparison, so we’ll continue monitoring where the picks are going.
How Far Down the Board Should You Go?
After the top four teams, the risk begins increasing.
Las Vegas has 69% loss odds against Kansas City. The Raiders rank No. 13 in Future Value, and their best remaining spot is 71% at San Francisco in Week 9.
They make for an intriguing alternative to the Chargers or Patriots.
Washington is at 67% against Indianapolis in the neutral-site game. Washington ranks No. 11 in Future Value and has a better projected opportunity coming in Week 6, when we currently give the Commanders 74% loss odds at San Francisco, but that’s more variable based on Jayden Daniels’ news in a few weeks. So this might be a decent diversity play to make.
If you want to get riskier and friskier, Philadelphia, Denver, and Jacksonville are all deep contrarian shots on teams that are underdogs of 2.5 to 3.5 points and have no future value (in the case of Denver or Jacksonville) and fairly low future value (for Philadelphia).
High-Future-Value Teams We’d Rather Save
The New York Giants are the clearest save on the Week 4 board.
They rank No. 3 in Future Value, but have only 55% loss odds against Arizona. This is merely their 12th-best projected loss opportunity of the season.
We currently project the Giants with 84% loss odds at Seattle in Week 14, along with numerous other substantially better opportunities.
There is little reason to spend one of the most valuable remaining Loser Pool teams while accepting nearly coin-flip risk this week.
Tampa Bay is another team whose updated Future Value makes its Week 4 matchup less attractive. The Buccaneers have 64% loss odds against Green Bay but have risen to No. 5 in Future Value. They already project for 80% loss odds at Dallas next week.
The Jets also have only 60% loss odds at Chicago while ranking No. 7 in Future Value. We project a much stronger 79% loss opportunity at Kansas City in Week 9.
All three illustrate the same principle: if you’re going to spend meaningful Future Value, there should be a compelling reason to do it.
Tennessee has that reason this week. These teams don’t.
Week 4 Loser Pool Strategy
Week 4 may be the point where Tennessee’s current safety outweighs the benefit of continuing to preserve it.
The Titans have the highest loss odds on the board at 84%. They rank No. 2 in Future Value, but this is also their best projected loss opportunity of the season.
Miami provides almost as much safety at 81%, but remains the No. 1 Future Value team and has an even better projected spot later.
New England and the Chargers provide the lower-Future-Value alternatives. Both are in one of their best spots of the season, but using either requires accepting considerably more Week 4 risk than Tennessee, and potentially at least in the case of the Patriots, higher or similar popularity.
If Tennessee and Miami attract overwhelming usage, there may be enough incentive to consider New England, the Chargers, or even a more aggressive option.
But if the popularity is more spread out — particularly if a meaningful portion of the pool moves down the board to riskier teams — Tennessee becomes very appealing despite the Future Value cost.
Saving teams for later only helps if you survive long enough to use them.
This week, Tennessee gives you the best projected chance to do that, in what is also the Titans’ best projected loss spot of the season. If you have several entries, you might mix some Tennessee with some diversity riskier plays, while staying off the options you think will be more popular in your pool based on past picking behavior.
How We Calculate Loser Pool Future Value
Our Loser Pool Future Value methodology mirrors the approach we use for traditional Survivor Pools, except we’re looking for teams with the lowest win odds rather than the highest.
For every remaining week, we calculate the 25th percentile of projected win odds among teams playing that week. That becomes our weekly baseline.
Teams below that baseline earn positive Future Value based on how far their projected win odds fall below it. A team projected to win 20% of the time has considerably more value than one at 30% if that week’s baseline is 35%.
We then add each team’s positive values across the remaining schedule and divide by the number of remaining weeks. We also track Weeks Below Baseline, showing how often a team projects as one of the more attractive teams to pick against.
The rankings do not account for projected pick popularity. Popularity can have a major impact on the value of an individual Loser Pool pick, but Future Value is designed to measure something different: the opportunity cost of using a team now instead of saving it for later.