5 Biggest NFL Upsets Ranked by Point Spread in 2024-25

We break down the five biggest NFL upsets of the 2024 season ranked by point spread. The top spot? One of the wildest finishes of the year.

If you played in an NFL survivor pool in 2024, there’s a good chance you were caught off guard by at least one of the season’s major upsets. From early-season surprises to late-year letdowns, these surprise outcomes shook up survivor contests big and small. Below, we’ll look at five of the biggest NFL upsets of the 2024 season based on point spread.

Biggest NFL Upsets of 2024-25: Honorable Mention

Patriots Win 16-10 at Bengals (Week 1)

Point spread: Patriots +7.5

Cincinnati’s home opener against New England became an immediate survivor pool killer, eliminating 34% of entries in Week 1. The Bengals’ 16-10 loss exposed their recurring pattern of slow September starts. This trend would surface again in Week 3 when Washington upset them 38-33 on Monday Night Football, eliminating another 13% of survivor pool entries on average.

Commanders Win 45-31 at Lions (NFC Divisional Round)

Point spread: Commanders +8

Washington’s playoff victory in Detroit ranks among the biggest NFL upsets in recent postseason history. The Commanders overcame an 8-point underdog status against a Lions team carrying championship expectations despite secondary injuries.

5 Biggest NFL Upsets in 2024-25 by Point Spread

Now let’s count down the five biggest upsets of the 2024-25 NFL season, ranked by how large the point spread was, starting with a Week 2 shocker in Baltimore.

5. Raiders Win 26-23 at Ravens (Week 2)

Point spread: Raiders +9

As mentioned earlier, the Bengals’ Week 1 loss eliminated an average of 34% of survivor entries. Then came another wipeout in Week 2, when the Raiders pulled off a 26-23 road upset over the Ravens, taking out another 31% of entries. It was a brutal start for NFL Survivor players, to say the least.

4. Panthers Win 44-38 at Falcons (Week 18)

Point spread: Panthers +9

This late-season stunner was a nightmare for survivor players. Atlanta was the most popular Week 18 pick, largely because many top teams had already been used. Carolina’s upset and a Packers loss (more on that in a bit) wiped out a huge chunk of the few entries still standing. A cruel ending to a chaotic season.

3. Broncos Win 10-9 at Jets: (Week 4)

Point spread: Broncos +9

Over 20% of survivor entries backed the Jets in Week 4, making this the second most popular pick (and a costly one). Denver’s upset came before their defense gained respect and prior to the Jets’ collapse. This loss sparked a five-game skid that ended New York’s playoff hopes and, eventually, Robert Saleh’s job.

2. Bears Win 24-22 at Packers: (Week 18)

Point spread: Bears +10

Chicago’s victory ended an 11-game losing streak to Green Bay dating back to December 2018. The Bears hadn’t won at Lambeau Field since 2015, making this upset truly rewarding for a fanbase that had endured nearly a decade of tough losses—and plenty of trash talk—from their rivals to the north.

Injuries to Jordan Love and Christian Watson shifted the game’s dynamics. However, Chicago needed a last-second field goal to clinch the 24-22 win and finally end its long drought at Lambeau Field.

1. Cowboys Win 34-26 at Commanders (Week 12)

Point spread: Cowboys +10.5

As our NFL Survivor expert Jason Lisk put it:

Washington, a popular Week 12 pick, appeared to force overtime with an 86-yard touchdown in the final seconds — only to miss the extra point. Moments later, Dallas returned the onside kick for a touchdown, flipping a potential win into a shocking 34-26 loss.

It was one of the most gut-wrenching endings for survivor players in recent memory, and it goes down as the biggest upset of the entire 2024-25 NFL season by point spread.

Making NFL Survivor Picks by Point Spread Alone Isn’t a Strategy

If you’re serious about improving your NFL survivor pool game, relying on point spreads alone won’t cut it. To truly gain an edge, you need a plan to map out future picks, manage multiple entries, and avoid the common traps that take out thousands of entries each year.

Here’s how to do that:

1. Start with our guide on How to Win NFL Survivor Contests—where we break down proven strategies step by step.
2. If you want an even bigger advantage, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product—a data-driven tool that helps you find the smartest plays each week.

It automatically considers key factors like pick popularity, future value, and upset risk to give you a clear survivor roadmap. On average, our users win 2.8 times more often than expected.