Are Division Rivalry Games Harder to Predict in NFL Survivor Pools? The Data Says No

Some survivor players avoid taking division games for fear of rivalry upsets. The actual data, though, does not support that approach.

by Jason Lisk - May 8, 2026

One common myth in survivor pools is that you should avoid division games if possible. Presumably, this is because of some belief that division games between rivals are less predictable and more subject to upsets.

The facts do not support avoiding division games in survivor, and in fact, you may be giving away value if you adopt such a hard-and-fast rule.

Why It’s Wrong

Going back to 2002, when the current NFL divisions were formed, favorites of five points or more — the types of teams that often end up as survivor pool picks — have won 77.1% of their division matchups, yet only 75.6% of their non-division regular season matchups.

You read that right. Over the last 24 years, with sample sizes over 1,000 games each, division rivalry games have actually resulted in fewer upsets among likely survivor picks than non-division games have. And that outcome is not on account of division games simply featuring higher spreads. Here is a breakdown of division vs. non-division game results by point spread range.

	Division				Non-Division
Spread Range	W	L	T	Win %	W	L	T	Win %
5 to 6.5	246	107	1	69.5%	414	190	4	68.1%
7 to 8.5	240	75	1	75.9%	349	123	1	73.8%
9 to 10.5	191	48	0	79.9%	281	58	1	82.6%
11 to 12.5	61	10	0	85.9%	83	14	0	85.6%
13 to 14.5	73	7	1	90.1%	117	22	0	84.2%
15+	34	1	0	97.1%	43	2	0	95.6%
TOTAL	845	248	3	77.1%	1287	409	6	75.6%

n the majority of spread ranges, division favorites had a higher win percentage compared to non-division favorites.

What About 2025?

Division favorites did underperform non-division favorites in 2025, winning 72.0% of games compared to 79.7% for non-division favorites. A handful of just-over-a-touchdown favorites lost division games in a way that dragged the overall number down. You might remember Detroit losing not once but twice to Minnesota as a favorite of at least a touchdown — the first team to lose twice as that big a favorite to the same opponent in 15 years — or the Eagles losing to the Giants as a 7.5-point favorite, or Buffalo getting blown out by 17 in Miami as an 8-point favorite in Week 10.

But one year of more frequent big division upsets is not historically unusual. Division favorites also underperformed in both 2015 and 2016 before bouncing back with four consecutive years of outperforming non-division games. In 16 of the 24 seasons since 2002, division favorites have won at a higher rate than their non-division comrades. One or two seasons of variance is exactly the kind of small-sample thinking the myth is built on in the first place.

Don’t Fall For the Myth

Believing in a myth has real-world consequences. If you remove teams from consideration right away, that limits your choices in survivor pools. You may be ignoring your best option in a given week if you abide by such a rule. Further, if a large enough group of entries ignores division matchups, that lowers the popularity and improves the EV for others actually picking those games.

There is no evidence that divisional favorites perform any worse in survivor pools over time. Betting markets are pretty good about taking information into account. They know that these are division games, and any risk has already been priced into the odds. The same goes for our predictive models and the win odds we use in the survivor tools.

That is an opportunity you can exploit. And when your opponents are leaving that value on the table because of a myth, you should be happy to take it.