Survivor Pool Advice for Subscribers in 2024 NFL Playoff Pools
Picks, strategy, and analysis for 2023-24 NFL playoffs survivor pools, from the Wild Card round all the way through the Super Bowl.
KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 16: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rolls out looking to pass in the second quarter of an NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on October 16, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
Welcome to the PoolGenius survivor pool pick strategy article for the 2023-24 NFL playoffs. This is a premium article available to subscribers with access to our NFL Survivor Picks product.
If you don’t already have access, you’ll see a button at the bottom of this page to subscribe.
Because of the unique complexity of playoff survivor pools, our NFL Survivor Picks product does not provide customized, pool-specific pick recommendations for playoff pools like it does for regular-season pools.
Instead, this article provides our data-driven analysis of playoff survivor pool pick strategies, from the Wild Card Round to the Super Bowl. We update it multiple times weekly throughout the playoffs, and include news updates that are likely to impact survivor pick strategy. So check here to get our recommendations for each playoff round.
Here are the updates and plan for the Super Bowl:
- Mon, Jan. 31: Super Bowl Matchup and Spread
- Thu, Feb. 1: Super Bowl Pick Popularity
- Fri, Feb. 2: Survivor Strategy for Super Bowl
- Thu, Feb. 8: Super Bowl Numbers Update
Subscribers who still have questions after reading this article can submit them via the product’s Q&A Forum. Just make sure to do it by Friday at noon to guarantee that we have time to review it. The earlier you get your question in, the better the odds that we can respond in time.
Super Bowl Survivor Content
2023 Super Bowl Matchup, Spread and Total
Four years after they met in the Super Bowl, Kansas City and San Francisco are back.
Kansas City continued to show their ability to get it done in the playoffs, winning again on the road at Baltimore. That makes this the first Super Bowl (out of the four in the last five seasons) where they didn’t have home field in the AFC playoffs. San Francisco, meanwhile, came back from a big 24.7 halftime deficit to beat the Detroit Lions.
San Francisco is now a 1-point favorite against Kansas City (it initially opened at 2.5 points on Sunday night briefly). San Francisco has 51% win odds, in a close matchup. The over/under for the game is 47.5 points.
Super Bowl Pick Popularity
The Chiefs are actually the more popular side as a slight underdog. The line has is now most commonly at two points in favor of San Francisco. As of right now, we are showing about 84 percent popularity on Kansas City.
Of course, this is heavily influenced by the picks needed to get to this point. Detroit was a very popular pick in the Divisional Round, and then that was followed up with a high percentage of picks on San Francisco in the Championship Round. Add in that Kansas City won against Baltimore as the underdog (and the less popular of those two teams), and the vast majority of entries that advanced to the Super Bowl did so by picking San Francisco in the last round.
In those where you can reuse teams, the splits should be closer. However, the game winner pick’em data is showing that the Chiefs are slightly more popular than the 49ers. So even in those pools, it is going to be closer to 50/50, but still potentially favoring Kansas City as the more popular side.
Survivor Strategy for the Super Bowl
If you are in a pool where you cannot reuse teams, the die is cast. You had to pick a winner to get here, so you now must take the other team still available.
That’s why the Chiefs are the more popular pick right now. More entries advanced in the last round by picking the 49ers over the Lions than by picking the Chiefs over the Ravens to get here.
If you’re in a pool where you can pick either team, then the current pick rates in pick’em pools would suggest there is EV value on picking the 49ers. They are a slight favorite, but also Kansas City is over 50% in pick popularity. If you have reason to think that your pool will behave differently, though, then the numbers are close enough that Kansas City is a justifiable pick if you think the 49ers will be the more popular side in your pool.
Super Bowl Numbers Update
With another week of waiting, we thought we would check in on where the numbers have gone. Generally speaking, not much has changed.
The spread is still at -2 for San Francisco, with 54% win odds.
For those in pools where you can re-use teams and pick either side, the pick popularity numbers have shifted ever so slightly toward an even split. The Chiefs are at about 56% (versus 58%) last week in game winner pool picks. But they are still the slightly more popular side.
Conference Championship Survivor Content
Here are the updates and schedule for the conference championship games.
- Tue, Jan. 23: Championship Game Matchups and Spreads
- Tue, Jan. 23: Championship Game Advancement Odds
- Wed, Jan. 24: Championship Game Pick Popularity and EV
- Wed, Jan. 24: Survivor Strategy in Pools Where You Can’t Reuse Teams
- Wed, Jan. 24: Survivor Strategy in Pools Where You Can Reuse Teams
If you have strategy questions after reading this article, feel free to drop a question in the Support Forum. Just get it in by Friday at noon to guarantee that we have time to review it.