Survivor Loser Pool Future Value Rankings: Week 1
Who are the most valuable losers in the NFL when it comes to your survivor pools? We look at the future value in Loser pools.
by Jason Lisk - Sep 13, 2026
Our first ever punter featured on an image seems appropriate for our first Loser pool article
In an NFL Survivor Loser Pool, the goal is reversed: instead of picking a team to win each week, you pick a team to lose. If your team wins, you’re eliminated, and just like a traditional Survivor pool, you can only use each team once.
That makes Future Value just as important in Loser Pools. The teams with the lowest projected win odds aren’t necessarily the best picks right now if they also project to be among the NFL’s best teams to pick against throughout the season.
Week 1 Loser Pool Future Value Rankings
Rank Team Future Value Rating Weeks Below Baseline
1 Miami 13.7 14
2 Arizona 11.7 13
3 NY Jets 8.8 11
4 Las Vegas 5.2 12
5 Cleveland 5.1 11
6 Tennessee 4.4 10
7 NY Giants 3.7 7
8 Atlanta 2.5 7
9 Carolina 2.2 7
10 New Orleans 1.2 3
11 Washington 1.0 3
12 Dallas 0.9 4
13 Pittsburgh 0.7 1
14 Indianapolis 0.6 3
15 Tampa Bay 0.5 3
16 Chicago 0.5 4
17 Minnesota 0.3 3
18 Philadelphia 0.3 1
19 Jacksonville 0.2 1
20 New England 0.1 2
21 Green Bay 0.1 1
22 Cincinnati 0.1 1
23 Denver 0.1 1
24 LA Chargers 0.0 1
The first rankings highlight an unusual Week 1 dynamic. Four of the six teams with the most Future Value aren’t realistic options this week because they play each other.
Miami (No. 1) plays Las Vegas (No. 4), while the Jets (No. 3) play Tennessee (No. 6). Someone has to win those games, so neither side provides the type of loss probability we’re looking for in a Loser Pool.
That removes four of the most valuable teams from the Week 1 decision and should put some downward pressure on the remaining choices.
New Orleans stands out as one team we expect to be popular. The Saints have only a 26% chance to win at Detroit, but rank just No. 10 in Future Value. You’re getting one of the highest loss probabilities of the week without sacrificing one of the most valuable teams for later.
Washington and Tampa Bay have similar arguments. Neither has elite season-long Future Value, making them more expendable when they appear in favorable Loser Pool situations.
Atlanta could provide an interesting middle ground. The Falcons have the fourth-highest loss probability this week, but rank No. 8 in Future Value. That requires sacrificing more future value than New Orleans, but considerably less than using one of the premium teams at the top of the rankings.
How We Calculate Loser Pool Future Value
Our Loser Pool Future Value methodology mirrors the approach we use for traditional Survivor Pools, except we’re looking for teams with the lowest win odds rather than the highest.
For every remaining week, we calculate the 25th percentile of projected win odds among teams playing that week. That becomes our weekly baseline.
Teams below that baseline earn positive Future Value based on how far their projected win odds fall below it. A team projected to win 20% of the time has considerably more value than one at 30% if that week’s baseline is 35%.
We then add each team’s positive values across the remaining schedule and divide by the number of remaining weeks. We also track Weeks Below Baseline, showing how often a team projects as one of the more attractive teams to pick against.
The rankings do not account for projected pick popularity. That’s an important distinction because popularity affects the value of any individual Loser Pool pick.
However, Future Value should help explain some of the forces that ultimately drive popularity.
Teams such as Miami, Arizona, and the Jets have many attractive opportunities throughout the season. Entries that use those teams will naturally spread their usage across different weeks. When one of those teams has an especially strong spot, some of the field may have already used it.
Teams with little Future Value have the opposite dynamic. If they suddenly become a major underdog, most surviving entries are likely to still have them available, potentially concentrating more picks on that team.
So these rankings aren’t a prediction of pick popularity. Instead, they show the opportunity cost of using each team nowand help identify situations where a team’s current loss probability may be more or less valuable than it initially appears.