Why September Destroys NFL Survivor Pools (How To Stay Alive)

Are big NFL favorites more upset-prone early in the season? We show the data and how to avoid early-season chaos in your NFL survivor pool.

Every September, NFL survivor pools witness the same brutal reality: massive eliminations that wipe out huge chunks of the field in the first few weeks of the season. The 2024 season opened with Cincinnati losing to New England as 7.5-point favorites, instantly eliminating 34% of entries. Sound familiar? It should. The Bengals pulled the same stunt in 2022, losing to the Steelers in Week 1 despite being the week’s biggest favorite.

Most players chalk this up to bad luck, an upset-heavy season, or the unpredictable nature of football. But after analyzing 15 years of NFL data, we’ve discovered something more systematic at work. There’s a measurable pattern that explains why early-season NFL survivor picks feel so volatile, and understanding it can fundamentally change how you approach the first month of the season.

The Data Behind Early NFL Survivor Chaos

We examined every NFL game since 2010 in which a team closed as a favorite between 7 and 9.5 points. This range represents the sweet spot for most survivor picks: large enough to feel safe, especially early in the season when double-digit point spreads are rare.

The results confirmed what sharp players have long suspected but couldn’t quite quantify.

Win Rates by Season Segment (7–9.5 Point Favorites)

Season Segment	Games	Wins	Win Rate
Weeks 1–4	134	95	70.90%
Weeks 5–9	177	138	77.97%
Weeks 10–14	199	155	77.89%
Weeks 15–18	140	107	76.43%

Favorites in this range win just 70.90% of their games in Weeks 1-4, compared to roughly 77% the rest of the season. That six-point difference might not sound dramatic, but in survivor pools where one loss eliminates you, it represents a significant shift in risk.

We’re calling this phenomenon “The September Slip” because it captures a consistent, data-backed trend that survivor players should understand. Early-season volatility is real and backed by data.

The September Slip: What Causes It?

Several factors contribute to the increased upset potential in the season’s opening month:

• Limited Information: Betting markets have less reliable data to work with. Teams haven’t established their true identity yet, making spreads less accurate predictors of outcomes.
• Roster Turnover: New players, coaches, and systems need time to gel. What looks like a mismatch on paper may not translate to the field in Week 1.
• Motivation Mismatches: Underdogs often play with more urgency early in the season, while favorites may lack the desperation that emerges later in playoff races.
• Limited Preseason Reps: Starters (especially quarterbacks and skill players) often get minimal playing time in the preseason. This lack of live reps can lead to rust and miscommunication in Week 1.

It’s tough to pinpoint one exact reason behind the September Slip, but we set out to identify patterns to see if there’s any way to predict when these surprising outcomes might happen.

Searching for Patterns in the Chaos

We dug deeper to see if we could identify common characteristics among teams that fall victim to the September Slip. Unfortunately, traditional markers didn’t reveal clear patterns:

• Home vs. Away: No meaningful difference in upset rates.
• Division Games: Roughly the same volatility as non-division matchups.
• Moneyline Ranges: No obvious breakpoints within the 7-9.5 spread range.
• Game Totals: Over/under didn’t correlate with upset frequency.

Some losses made sense in retrospect, like Cincinnati’s struggle with an injured Joe Burrow in 2022 or after the Ja’Marr Chase holdout in 2024. Others were complete mysteries, like the Raiders’ massive upset of Baltimore in Week 2 of 2024.

That said, Week 1 may be a different animal. This article shows how new QB and coaching factors impact upset rates in Week 1, highlighting how new situations bring more volatility.

It’s one of several situations we’ll be monitoring early in the season, but September upsets are best evaluated case by case rather than through broad patterns. That’s how we will approach them in our weekly NFL Survivor Pick articles.

Banking on Favorites of 10-14 Points

Knowing about the September Slip, your first instinct might be to pivot toward larger favorites early in the season. The win rates for 10-14 point favorites seem to support this strategy.

Favorites 10–14 Points by Season Segment

Season Segment	Games	Wins	Win %
Weeks 1–4	60	54	90.00%
Weeks 5–9	95	80	84.21%
Weeks 10–14	123	100	81.30%
Weeks 15–18	117	103	88.03%

That 90% win rate in Weeks 1-4 looks appealing, especially since these teams actually perform better early than later in the season. But there’s a critical flaw in this approach: big favorites barely exist in September.

Since 2018, here’s how often we’ve seen double-digit favorites in the first month:

• 2024: 1 game
• 2023: 2 games
• 2022: 4 games
• 2021: 4 games
• 2020: 4 games

Even more telling? None of these occurred in Week 1. The last opening week game with a 10+ point spread was Eagles vs. Washington in 2019.

You simply can’t build a reliable survivor strategy around games that rarely materialize.

What About 14+ Point Favorites?

Taking this logic to its extreme, teams favored by 14+ points in Weeks 1-4 have been nearly bulletproof, going 16-1 since 2010 for a 94.1% win rate. The only loss came in 2018, when rookie quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills stunned the Vikings, a game we’ve ranked as the fifth-biggest NFL upset since 1985.

The problem? These opportunities are rarer than unicorns. Here’s how many 14+ point favorites there have been in Weeks 1-4 over the past five seasons:

• 2024: 0 games
• 2023: 1 game
• 2022: 0 games
• 2021: 1 game
• 2020: 1 game

If we go back to 2010, there have been only 17 instances of a 14+ point favorite in Weeks 1–4.

While these picks have been incredibly safe when they appear, you can’t count on them being available. And when they are, they often involve elite teams you may want to save for double-pick weeks or tricky holiday scheduling later in the season.

What This Means for NFL Survivor Strategy

Understanding the “September Slip” doesn’t mean avoiding all early-season picks in the 7-9.5 range. Instead, it should inform how you approach risk management:

Diversify Early Picks: If you’re playing multiple entries, consider spreading your Week 1-4 selections across different teams and spread ranges to reduce correlated risk.

Value Rare Giants: When those 14+ point favorites do appear early, they represent genuine value given their historical safety record.

Plan for Volatility: Factor the increased upset potential into your overall strategy. Don’t burn elite teams unnecessarily in September when you might need them for more predictable spots later.

Pool Size Matters: In certain pools, the September Slip might actually work in your favor if you can identify contrarian picks that others avoid due to the uncertainty.

How To Avoid Early Season Chaos

Understanding the “September Slip” is just one piece of a successful NFL survivor strategy. Winning long-term also requires:

• Strategically saving teams for double-pick and holiday weeks
• Understanding pick popularity to identify value spots
• Maximizing expected value based on your specific pool’s structure and size
• Balancing current week safety with future value considerations
• Juggling multiple entries and understanding how buybacks influence strategy

That’s exactly what the PoolGenius NFL Survivor Tool does. Each week, it analyzes all these factors (pick grades, future value, popularity across major pool-hosting platforms) and runs them through a proven algorithm to identify the smartest plays.

You’ll know where to pick your spots, how to diversify across entries, and which teams to save for later. It’s a lot to juggle, especially if you’re managing multiple pools or entries, which is why we built the most powerful NFL survivor tool on the planet.

Since 2017, our subscribers have won over $6.5 million in survivor pool prizes, taking home prizes 2.8x as often as expected.