How I Turned $2 Into More Than $3,000 in NFL Survivor

I turned a $2 entry into $3,000 by surviving 22 straight NFL picks. Here's the strategy I used to beat 1,800 entries and take first place.

by Jason Lisk - Jul 22, 2025

Last year, I turned a $2 entry ticket into a survivor win for over $3,000 on Splash Sports. Sure, it’s not winning the Circa Survivor contest for several million. Still, it also didn’t require a $10,000 entry fee, a trip to Las Vegas, and paying a proxy to enter my picks each week, things that are not accessible or feasible for many people playing NFL survivor.

On the other hand, most of you can afford to play a few dollars here and there on NFL survivor entries, rather than buying scratch-off tickets or a cup of coffee.

Many may not be aware that low-fee survivor contests are popping up increasingly frequently and are available for you to play.

So I thought I would go through how I turned that $2 into an outright solo win.

Why Multiple Entries Made All the Difference

I said I turned $2 into $3,000, and technically that’s true. One entry cost $2, and that’s the one that won. But in reality, I bought 12 entries for a total of $24.

Why? Because having multiple entries gives you more chances to win. It’s a simple portfolio strategy: spread out your picks, reduce risk, and give yourself a better shot at making a run.

That one winning entry was worth it, but all 12 were part of the plan.

And this wasn’t the only contest I played. I joined a few other low-cost survivor pools where I didn’t win anything. But hitting on just one covered all of those entry fees and still left me way ahead.

The Pool: 1,800 Entries & 22 Wins Needed

The contest I entered on Splash Sports was a season-long NFL survivor pool with a twist. In the final four weeks of the season (Weeks 15 through 18), you had to make multiple picks each week to stay alive. Because of the low $2 entry fee and the ability to buy several entries, the pool attracted a lot of action. More than 1,800 entries were in play at the start of Week 1.

Survivor pools that run the full 18-week season are tough to win. Our research shows that, on average, only 1 or 2 entries out of every 1,000 make it to the end. And with the added requirement of multiple picks late in the season, this one could take up to 22 correct picks to win it all.

I didn’t know if it would go that long at the time—many pools don’t—but given the size of the field and the added challenge at the end, I had to assume it could. And as it turned out, I did have to go a perfect 22-0 to win.

Knowing that, the strategy was clear. With 12 entries, I used a portfolio approach. I spread out my picks to reduce early risk and looked for chances to save valuable teams for the final stretch when most people ran out of options.

Early Losses, But Long-Term Positioning

If you played NFL Survivor in 2024, you already know how wild the first few weeks were. Some of the season’s biggest upsets came in the first month, a trend we call “The September Slip.” We have a whole article on how to navigate that initial chaos.

During Weeks 1 through 4, teams favored by six or more points went just 7-10 straight up. Most of those teams were popular or semi-popular survivor picks, and the damage was brutal. After just four weeks, fewer than 5% of entries were still alive.

My entries weren’t immune. Here’s how things went:

• Week 1: Lost three entries (Cincinnati and Atlanta)
• Week 2: Lost four more (Baltimore, Dallas, Detroit)
• Week 3: Another three gone (Cincinnati and Cleveland)
• Week 4: My second-to-last entry knocked out by the Jets

That left me with just one entry heading into Week 5. But the silver lining? The pool had been wrecked. Only 76 other entries were left from the original 1,800-plus, mirroring the national average of just 4.2% still standing.

My odds were still long (1 in 77 isn’t exactly a slam dunk), but I was in a much better spot than most because of how I had managed my picks.

The real edge? I still had key teams like Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, and Philadelphia available. As it turned out, I had 13 of the 14 eventual playoff teams left to use.

That kind of flexibility became a huge advantage later in the season.

Setting Up the Late Run: Take Smart Risks, Save Strong Teams

In Week 5, down to my last entry, I picked 0-4 Jacksonville.

It paid off. San Francisco and Seattle were the most popular picks, and both lost. My contrarian play survived, and the pool dropped to 38 entries. Just as important, my entry now had some of the best remaining future value.

Over the next few weeks, I kept that momentum going:

• Week 6: Took Green Bay instead of the popular pick, Philadelphia

• Week 7: Picked Washington, saving Buffalo (2nd most popular that week)

• Week 8: Went with Denver instead of popular Detroit

Only three entries were eliminated during that stretch, but I gained a significant edge. While others burned top teams, I still had Buffalo, Detroit, and Philadelphia available for the late-season push.

Remember, this mattered even more because starting in Week 15, the contest required multiple weekly picks to stay alive.

The November Weeks: Firing High EV Plays

As we approached Week 9, the contest outlook, even after some low-elimination weeks, was still tracking toward only a small number of entries reaching the multi-pick weeks. I had a choice: continue to save future value, or start to cash in some higher expected value (EV) plays?

From Weeks 9-13, I mostly did the latter by selecting some top teams:

• Week 9: Baltimore (over Denver, 41-10)
• Week 10: Philadelphia (over Dallas, 34-6)
• Week 11: Detroit (over Jacksonville, 52-6)
• Week 12: Miami (over New England, 34-15).

It was a largely sweat-free stretch, while the pool went from 33 to 8, with others going out by picking teams like the Saints, Falcons, Giants, Steelers, and the now-injury-riddled 49ers.

In Week 13, on Black Friday, with just two weeks before the multi-picks would begin, I took the Chiefs, joining just one other entry that had them left. That was the first real sweat since Jacksonville’s win in Week 5, but the other five teams picked by the other entries also won.

Related: What Is Expected Value (EV) in NFL Survivor? Why Does It Matter?

A Long December: The Multi-Pick Weeks

I closed out the final single-pick week in Week 14 with the Vikings, as the only one to pick them. The pool was concentrated on Tampa Bay, but I did not get the result there, though one entry went out on Buffalo’s shootout loss to the Rams.

So six other entries joined me in a treacherous multi-pick closing run that could end at any time with a couple of key upsets.

Week 15, as it shaped up, was my relatively worst spot of the four remaining weeks. Multiple opponents still had Baltimore (who were drawing a collapsing Giants team). I bit the bullet and picked Arizona and Cincinnati. Putting your survivor life on both the Bungles (notorious for NFL Survivor demise) and the inconsistent Cardinals is not where you want to be. But that worked out, and everyone advanced out of the first multi-pick week.

For Week 16, I was the lone Buffalo holder, so that made for an easy strategic pick. My other pick was on the semi-chalky Atlanta Falcons, but it was Michael Penix’s first start. I still put my survivor life on the line because the Giants were that bad by the end of the season. Arizona and Tampa Bay’s losses knocked out two entries, moving it to five left.

The Key Decision Point: Saving Teams for the Final Stretch

I had all the key teams still in play for consideration in our pool. I had the popular Colts going against the Giants. But I was also the only entry to have Tampa Bay left (vs. Carolina). I also had both the Chargers and Rams available, and I knew they could both draw picks.

Tampa Bay was a potential save for Week 18, but I decided to go ahead and play them in Week 17, knowing the rest of the pool might be on the Colts. In a close call for the second spot, I went Rams over Chargers, with my rationale being that the Rams were more likely to be able to rest starters (which is how it worked out).

When the Colts lost to the Giants, it was down to me and one other entry.

The Final Week

The lone opposing entry did not have good options for its second pick. We both still had the Chargers, and with the Chargers being a 7-point favorite, that seemed like a mandatory move for both of us (which we took).

My best “second pick” was the Colts, favored by 3.5 points. My opponent did not have anyone favored by a field goal or more available, and was going to be on at best a coin flip, but opted for Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Cincinnati.

When the Steelers lost on Saturday night, I went to bed knowing that I needed a two-game parlay of Indianapolis + LA Chargers to hit to go 22-0 and claim the whole pot, or at worst split it.

Narrow Colts Win Seals $3,000 Payout

The Colts won 26-23, but it was not an easy win. It went to overtime after a long Jacksonville field goal, and even after the OT field goal to take the lead, the Colts had to survive a Mac Jones-led drive to keep the lead and win.

It turns out that the AFC South matchup that only gamblers, fantasy players, and survivor players could love represents what it takes to win a big pool that required 22 straight wins.

My key pick in Week 5 started with the winless Jaguars over the Colts, and the pool ended with the Colts over the Jaguars in overtime. It took some luck and planning to play those games and go with high-value picks elsewhere.

You cannot get through survivor pools just picking great teams, and have to find the best spots to play the teams that make you nervous. On the other side of nervous could be $3,000 from $2.