How the 2024 Circa Survivor Winners Survived All 20 Weeks

We take a deeper dive into who the Circa Survivor winners picked last season, and how that compared to the rest of the contest participants.

Circa Survivor VI (2025) has officially been announced with a record-breaking prize pool. Also, for the first time, a second high-stakes contest is joining the Circa NFL Survivor lineup: Circa Grandissimo, featuring a $100,000 entry fee.

To help you gear up for this year’s contest, let’s look at how last season’s winners made it through. The 2024 Circa Survivor started with 14,266 entries, and just eight remained by the end of Week 20. Each took home $1,783,250 after splitting the $14.266 million prize pool.

This article explains how those eight winning entries navigated the chaos: what teams they picked, how they approached key holiday slates, and where their strategy diverged from the broader field. Whether you’re a returning player or looking to enter for the first time, there’s plenty to learn from the paths of the final few.

The 2024 Circa Survivor Winners and Who They Picked

Here were the eight entry names and their picks for all 20 segments of the contest.

Week	C3 Picks-7	Dream Stakes-1	Meatball Brothers-2	PumbaPack9-3	TY1823-8	Vodka Johnny-7	WhateverYallWant-6	WhiskeyBusiness-1
1	NO	SEA	BUF	MIA	SEA	BUF	NO	SEA
2	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
3	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ
4	DAL	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	DAL	SF
5	DEN	CHI	GB	GB	DEN	GB	JAC	CHI
6	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	BAL	PHI	GB
7	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	LAR	BUF
8	DET	DEN	DET	DEN	DET	DEN	DEN	DEN
9	CIN	CIN	BAL	BAL	CIN	CIN	BAL	CIN
10	LAC	LAC	LAC	MIN	LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC
11	GB	DET	MIN	DET	LAR	DET	MIN	MIA
12	MIA	MIA	MIA	TB	MIA	MIA	KC	KC
13A	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC	KC	DET	DET
13B	BUF	BUF	DEN	BUF	IND	TB	WAS	WAS
14	PIT	PIT	TB	PIT	PIT	PHI	MIA	PHI
15	MIN	MIN	CIN	ARI	MIN	MIN	CIN	MIN
16	CIN	GB	ATL	ATL	GB	ATL	GB	ATL
17A	SEA	BAL	SEA	SEA	BAL	SEA	SEA	BAL
17B	LAR	LAR	LAR	LAC	BUF	LAR	BUF	LAR
18	TB	TB	IND	IND	TB	ARI	TB	TB

There’s more than one way to get through a Survivor season: plenty of teams win each week. But when we looked at the final eight, some patterns started to jump out in the teams they trusted.

All Winners Picked the Same Teams in Weeks 2 and 3

In Week 2, only two of the eight most popular picks survived: the Texans and Chargers. All eight eventual Circa Survivor winners chose the Texans, who had a bigger point spread (-6 vs. -4) and were the projected higher-value play. While luck plays a role, this collective decision hints at a sharper assessment of pick value from the eventual winners, compared to the average participant who survived that week.

In Week 3, the Jets were the only winners among the five most popular picks. About 30% of entries advanced on less popular, lower-value picks, but none won. Again, all the winners leaned toward better expected value and took the Jets.

Thanksgiving Strategy: Saving Chiefs & Lions

All eight winners saved either Kansas City or Detroit, the projected top two Thanksgiving favorites, until Week 12 or later.

• All eight had KC available entering Week 12

• Two used KC in Week 12; six saved them for Black Friday vs. Las Vegas

This shows careful planning to ensure a strong option for the critical Thanksgiving slate, where pick restrictions heighten difficulty.

Were the Winners Contrarian?

Not especially. Despite the early-season upsets, the data shows the winners leaned toward popular, high-value picks more often than not:

• 104 of 160 picks by the winners were either the most popular or the second-most popular that week.

• Only six picks all year, across all eight winners, fell outside the top five options that week in Circa contest popularity.

The Most Contrarian Picks by Eventual Winners:

• Week 1: PumbaPack9-3 picked Miami (1.2% popularity)

• Week 5: Green Bay (6.0%) was picked by three winners

• Week 12: Tampa Bay (4.0%) by PumbaPack9-3

• Week 13B: Indianapolis (3.7%) by TY1823-8

Timing Future Value Picks Effectively

Last year, in our weekly Circa article, we provided our subscribers with a Future Value chart estimating how valuable each team was for future weeks. Using our Future Value estimates published weekly, we compared how winners balanced immediate win odds with long-term value.

Category	Winners	Other Survivors	Difference
Top 3 Spread, FV 1–6	22.9%	20.1%	2.8%
Top 3 Spread, FV 7–12	6.3%	7.1%	-0.8%
Top 3 Spread, FV 13–20	16.7%	13.4%	3.3%
Top 3 Spread, FV 21–32	20.8%	16.2%	4.6%
Not Top 3 Spread, FV 1–6	1.0%	2.8%	-1.8%
Not Top 3 Spread, FV 7–12	17.7%	15.5%	2.2%
Not Top 3 Spread, FV 13–20	3.1%	14.2%	-11.1%
Not Top 3 Spread, FV 21–32	11.5%	10.7%	0.8%

Key Insights:

• 37.5% of winner picks came from teams with low future value (ranks 13–20 or 21+), but high win odds (Top 3 spreads). That’s significantly higher than 29.8% for other survivors.

• Winners avoided using teams with moderate future value (13–20) and lower weekly win odds — only 3.1% of picks, versus 14.2% for others.

This indicates that winners were better at deploying teams when it made the most statistical sense, based on both win odds and future utility.

Gain an Edge With PoolGenius

Winning a survivor contest, especially one the size of Circa, takes both luck and strategy. The 2024 winners excelled at:

• Picking high-win-probability teams

• Planning around holidays and future matchups

• Avoiding unnecessary contrarianism

• Balancing future value against weekly opportunities

PoolGenius NFL Survivor Picks delivers this kind of strategy for up to 30 survivor entries, including tools like:

• The Season Planner

• An EV Calculator

• Weekly Future Value estimates

• Betting market win odds

• Pick Popularity estimates

If you want to increase your odds in a high-stakes survivor contest, don’t leave it to chance.