NFL Survivor 2025: Early Reactions From Schedule Release
We outline early 2025 NFL Survivor insights after the schedule release. Top teams, tricky weeks, and schedule strategy tips to get ahead.
The Eagles and Chiefs should feature prominently in your NFL Survivor plans in 2025 (Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)
The NFL has released the full schedule for the 2025 season, which means it’s time to start thinking about survivor pools. Sure, the first picks aren’t due for a few months, but that doesn’t mean we can’t begin planning and plotting strategies now.
This article highlights some early observations about the 2025 NFL schedule—difficult weeks, favorable matchups, and the teams most likely to feature prominently.
NFL Survivor Future Value Leaders: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles
The chart below shows teams with several projected high-spread matchups for the 2025 season. These projections are based on market win totals translated into team ratings, which were then used to simulate point spreads across the season.
We rank teams by the number of games they’re projected to be favored by 4 or more points and include their top expected matchups. This is a useful early proxy for “future value” in survivor contests.
Editor’s Note: For actual weekly pick recommendations, check out our NFL Survivor Pool Picks.
| Team | Games Favored by 7+ | Games Favored by 4.0–6.9 | Top Matchup 1 | Top Matchup 2 | Top Matchup 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 7 | 5 | vs. New Orleans (W4) | vs. NY Jets (W18) | at Cleveland (W16) |
| Kansas City | 5 | 6 | vs. Las Vegas (W7) | at Tennessee (W16) | vs. Indianapolis (W12) |
| Baltimore | 6 | 4 | vs. Cleveland (W2) | vs. NY Jets (W12) | at Cleveland (W11) |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 2 | vs. NY Giants (W8) | vs. Las Vegas (W15) | at NY Giants (W6) |
| Detroit | 3 | 5 | vs. Cleveland (W4) | vs. NY Giants (W12) | vs. Dallas (W14) |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | 5 | vs. New Orleans (W14) | vs. NY Jets (W3) | vs. Carolina (W18) |
| San Francisco | 2 | 6 | vs. Tennessee (W15) | vs. Carolina (W12) | at New Orleans (W2) |
| Washington | 2 | 5 | vs. NY Giants (W1) | vs. Las Vegas (W3) | at NY Giants (W15) |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 4 | vs. Cleveland (W18) | vs. NY Jets (W8) | at Cleveland (W1) |
| Houston | 1 | 5 | vs. Tennessee (W4) | vs. Las Vegas (W16) | vs. Indianapolis (W18) |
| LA Rams | 1 | 5 | vs. New Orleans (W9) | vs. Indianapolis (W4) | at Tennessee (W2) |
| Denver | 2 | 3 | vs. Tennessee (W1) | vs. NY Giants (W7) | vs. Las Vegas (W10) |
| Green Bay | 2 | 2 | vs. Carolina (W9) | at Cleveland (W3) | at NY Giants (W11) |
| LA Chargers | 0 | 4 | vs. Las Vegas (W13) | vs. Indianapolis (W7) | at Tennessee (W9) |
| Minnesota | 0 | 4 | at Cleveland (W5) | vs. Atlanta (W2) | at NY Giants (W16) |
| Chicago | 2 | 1 | vs. New Orleans (W7) | vs. Cleveland (W15) | vs. NY Giants (W10) |
| Pittsburgh | 1 | 2 | vs. Cleveland (W6) | vs. Indianapolis (W9) | at Cleveland (W17) |
| Las Vegas | 0 | 3 | vs. Cleveland (W12) | vs. Tennessee (W6) | vs. NY Giants (W17) |
Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Philadelphia are the top contenders. It’s interesting that Detroit isn’t on this list despite its talent. That’s because the Lions face a tougher strength of schedule with fewer games as a large projected favorite. Among the top-tier contenders, Buffalo appears to have the softest schedule.
These top teams have tempting early-season matchups, but they may be even more valuable later in the year, an important factor in long-term planning.
Weekly Breakdowns: Week 1 and Beyond
Here’s a quick snapshot of each week’s landscape, showing how many high-spread favorites are projected. Not all NFL weeks are equal. Bye weeks and matchups vary significantly. Some weeks offer plentiful options, while others are filled with risk.
| Week | Games Favored by 7+ | Games Favored by 4.0–6.9 | Top Favorite 1 | Top Favorite 2 | Top Favorite 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 1 | Philadelphia (vs. Dallas) | Washington (vs. NY Giants) | Denver (vs. Tennessee) |
| 2 | 2 | 7 | Baltimore (vs. Cleveland) | Buffalo (at NY Jets) | Detroit (vs. Chicago) |
| 3 | 6 | 2 | Kansas City (at NY Giants) | Tampa Bay (vs. NY Jets) | Buffalo (vs. Miami) |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | Buffalo (vs. New Orleans) | Detroit (vs. Cleveland) | Houston (vs. Tennessee) |
| 5 | 2 | 4 | Buffalo (vs. New England) | Philadelphia (vs. Denver) | Minnesota (at Cleveland) |
| 6 | 2 | 5 | Philadelphia (at NY Giants) | Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland) | Buffalo (at Atlanta) |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | Kansas City (vs. Las Vegas) | Chicago (vs. New Orleans) | Denver (vs. NY Giants) |
| 8 | 4 | 4 | Philadelphia (vs. NY Giants) | Cincinnati (vs. NY Jets) | Buffalo (at Carolina) |
| 9 | 2 | 5 | LA Rams (vs. New Orleans) | Green Bay (vs. Carolina) | Washington (vs. Seattle) |
| 10 | 0 | 5 | Chicago (vs. NY Giants) | Tampa Bay (vs. New England) | Denver (vs. Las Vegas) |
| 11 | 1 | 6 | Baltimore (at Cleveland) | Green Bay (at NY Giants) | Buffalo (vs. Tampa Bay) |
| 12 | 4 | 3 | Baltimore (vs. NY Jets) | Detroit (vs. NY Giants) | Kansas City (vs. Indianapolis) |
| 13 | 1 | 9 | Philadelphia (vs. Chicago) | Miami (vs. New Orleans) | LA Chargers (vs. Las Vegas) |
| 14 | 3 | 3 | Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans) | Detroit (vs. Dallas) | Baltimore (vs. Pittsburgh) |
| 15 | 3 | 6 | Philadelphia (vs. Las Vegas) | San Francisco (vs. Tennessee) | Chicago (vs. Cleveland) |
| 16 | 3 | 5 | Buffalo (at Cleveland) | Baltimore (vs. New England) | Kansas City (at Tennessee) |
| 17 | 0 | 5 | Kansas City (vs. Denver) | Washington (vs. Dallas) | Cincinnati (vs. Arizona) |
| 18 | 4 | 6 | Buffalo (vs. NY Jets) | Cincinnati (vs. Cleveland) | Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina) |
Week 1: A Few Solid Options, Then a Sharp Drop-Off
Week 1 features five teams projected to be favored by at least 4.0 points. Only four appear in the table due to the Arizona at New Orleans game being just below the cutoff, but with the Saints potentially starting a rookie QB, that spread could rise.
Washington and Denver will likely split popularity. Philadelphia will also be picked, although we expect its future value will limit exposure. Arizona and Cincinnati also offer contrarian appeal.
Week 1 has the fewest alternative options in the 4.0 to 6.9 spread range.
Weeks 2–3: Depth of Options May Encourage Saving High-Value Teams
After that tough opening week, Week 2 and Week 3 are far more forgiving. Week 3 appears to be the biggest mismatch week on paper, with six teams projected as large favorites—the most of any week. Week 2 follows closely, with nine teams favored by 4.0 or more, matching look-ahead lines already on the board.
Only Week 13 and Week 18 feature more teams with spreads in this range.
That depth means early weeks will force tough decisions about balancing win probability with long-term value. For example, in Week 2, Buffalo and Baltimore are top favorites—but also offer strong future spots. Finding a viable alternative might be key in large pools.
Weeks 10–11: A Swing Spot in the Season
Weeks 10 and 11 lack top-tier options. Only one team is projected to be favored by more than 7 points: Baltimore at Cleveland.
You’ll also notice unfamiliar names among the top matchups—Chicago, Denver, and Tampa Bay all surface in Week 10. It’s likely at least one of those teams draws significant pick volume.
Week 17: A Tough Close
If you’re still alive by late December, Week 17 could be a landmine. Week 18 always carries uncertainty around playoff motivations, but Week 17 is shaping up to be thin even before that.
Kansas City hosting Denver might be the top matchup—do you really want to lean on a division rivalry? The next best option might be Washington vs. Dallas. Outside of those, Cincinnati hosts Arizona.
New teams may rise, but they could also be fool’s gold, just like Indianapolis last year, which knocked out a huge chunk of entries with an unexpected loss to the Giants.
Potential Week 17 survivor plays in what looks like a challenging spot include:
- Pittsburgh at Cleveland
- Tennessee vs. New Orleans
- Las Vegas vs. NY Giants
- San Francisco vs. Chicago
Thursday Survivor Decision Points
Thursday Night games always present a dilemma. If the matchup is attractive, do you commit early to making a pick or wait to see how the week unfolds?
Here are some 2025 Thursday Night Football games that could be relevant for survivor:
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Week 1: Philadelphia vs. Dallas
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Week 3: Buffalo vs. Miami
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Week 6: Philadelphia at NY Giants
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Week 9: Baltimore at Miami
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Week 10: Denver vs. Las Vegas
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Week 11: New England vs. NY Jets
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Week 14: Detroit vs. Dallas
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Week 15: Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta
Holiday Weeks Get Even Tougher in Circa Survivor
For those in Circa Survivor—a high-stakes contest with special rules—holiday weeks bring even more complexity. In this contest, entries must make separate picks for Thanksgiving/Black Friday and Christmas, adding a wrinkle to the overall strategy.
Kansas City appears on both slates again this year, just like in 2024. They face Dallas on Thanksgiving and host Denver on Christmas Day. This time, they’re joined by Detroit, which also plays on both slates.
To make things even more difficult, two of the highest future value teams—Baltimore and Philadelphia—also play on the Thanksgiving slate. Add in Washington, a top-8 value team and a projected Christmas favorite, and you’ve got six tempting survivor picks locked into two pick windows.
Planning around these constraints will be critical. Oh, and Washington and Philadelphia are two of the biggest Week 1 favorites as well, so those decisions will be tested early.