Sony Open One And Done Pick Strategy

The Sony Open is a wide open field, giving you several options in One and Done pools. We break down the strategy.

The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu is the second (and final) tournament in Hawaii to start the 2024 PGA season. This tournament has a total purse of $8.3 million in 2024, which ranks it tied for 27th in prize money among PGA events and Majors taking place between the start of January and the BMW Championship in late August.

As a result, in One And Done pools, you really want to think about balancing future value with your pick selection, and not burning a pick that you may wish you had for one of the bigger purse events later in the season.

The first place prize in the Sony is just under $1.5 million, so you need to be careful when considering a golfer ranked in the top 15 as your pick this week. If you want to see where this tournament ranks in your specific One And Done pool, you can set up your pool entry in our One And Done Golf product.

2024 Sony Open Field Overview

This analysis serves as a compliment to the data we provide in our Data Grid once you set up your entry. While our goal is to develop a more detailed grading system for weekly picks, right now this article will serve to highlight some of the potential picks we see using the tools.

Here are some notable highlights for the Sony Open field:

• NONE of the top eight golfers in our current PoolGenius rankings are playing in this event, though six of them played in Hawaii in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions.
• The three golfers with the best betting odds to win it (Ludvig Aberg, Tyrell Hatton, and Matt Fitzpatrick) are all ranked inside our top 15 overall. All three of them are also playing in this event for the first time.
• None of those three have tournament-winning odds above +1600, which means no one individual has even a 6% implied chance of winning the event, based on the betting market.
• In total, though, we have 11 different golfers between +1600 and +3300, and four more at +3500, making this a pretty wide open event, with lots of reasonable options to consider.

2024 Sony Open One And Done Pick Strategy

Save the top-rated golfers

Given how early in the season it is, and where this tournament ranks in total prize purse, it is probably better to save Aberg, Hatton, and Fitzpatrick. Aberg’s ranking is borderline in that regard at No. 15, but he is a highly-thought-of rookie who just played in the Ryder Cup for Europe, and if he fulfills some of his potential, you are going to wish you had him for some bigger events later.

Eric Cole is another interesting one, as our rankings (No. 11) have him higher than the current market. Cole is the 2023 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, putting things together at age 35. Over the last six months, he has made the cut in 16 straight events. He finished top 4 in four of the five events he played in the fall, and backed that up with a 14th place finish last week.

While he looks like a solid value this week, given where he ranks in our overall power ratings based on recent form, we think it’s better to save him and see if this form continues, making him a solid contrarian option at a bigger money event in the near future.

Corey Conners is at the sweet spot of future value and chances to win

Using our new Golf One And Done Picks product to identify smart pick options, Corey Conners (No. 28 in our rankings) stands out. He has the best course-specific Strokes Gained average of any of the 44 golfers who have played this event at least three times in the last five years (which you can see by sorting the “Course SG” column). Conners has finished in the top 12 each of the last four times he has played at the Sony Open (including a third place finish in 2019). His tournament winner betting odds have shortened since Monday (+3300 to +2500, tied for sixth best). He could be a semi-popular option this week, but there’s a reason for that.

Other golfers who show up in that same tournament-winning odds range, and rank outside our top 20 in overall golfer rankings (and thus use an appropriate amount of future value) include:

• Chris Kirk, +2500, No. 41
• J.T. Poston, +3300, No. 23
• Byeong-Hun An, +3300, No. 37
• Denny McCarthy, +3500, No. 27
• Justin Rose, +3500, No. 45
• Harris English, +3500, No. 52
• Si-Woo Kim, +3500, No. 54

Kirk just won last week’s Sentry with a strong weekend performance, and could be fairly popular, while An was 4th last week. Kim was the surprise winner at the Sony Open last year, and that could lead to higher popularity, as the previous year winner at events tends to have higher popularity than other golfers with similar odds.

Russell Henley and Brian Harman use more future value, but are reasonable options

Russell Henley and Brian Harman are right behind the betting odds favorites, at fifth (+2200) and fourth-highest (+2000) respectively. They are also just outside our top 15 in overall golfer power ratings.

Henley in particular has a history of success at the Sony Open. He won the event back in 2013 in his PGA Tour rookie debut, and finished 2nd two years ago.

Longer shot contrarian options

You don’t necessarily have to go deeper into the odds list this week, with so many reasonable options near the leaders in odds to win. But if you want more uniqueness and potential to pick someone who few others are taking, even in large pools, we would consider the following:

• Hideki Matsuyama, +5000 (won Sony in 2022)
• Andrew Putnam, +5000 (4th at Sony last year)
• Brendon Todd, +5000 (was tied for 2nd after two rounds at Sentry, before fading and breaking his driver on Sunday)

Overall Sony Open One And Done Pick Summary

These are our top options for the Sony Open this week in One And Done pools, balancing future value and win odds:

• Corey Conners
• Byeong-Hun An
• Chris Kirk
• Russell Henley
• Denny McCarthy
• J.T. Poston

If you are playing multiple entries across One And Done pools, this is definitely a good week to diversify across all entries and take shots on different golfers.