Why Do Pick Rankings Change During The Week?

Our top recommendations for a week can change as new information comes in. We go through some main reasons why that is.

The My Pool Picks custom pick rankings are the heart and soul of our weekly Survivor analysis. The custom picks ranking table contains all of the data that informs all of our weekly advice. This is the same data we’ve used for years, including during our 17-0 undefeated season in 2011, with rankings customized to take your pool size and pool rules into account.

The 3 Reasons Picks Change

You may notice that if you look at your custom pick rankings for a given pool early in the week (before the Thursday game, for example), and then you update them later in the week (perhaps Sunday morning), the rankings can change. Why is that?

There are three main reasons this can happen:

• First, our win odds predictions can change during the week. This is mainly in response to betting market info. As betting lines move, our predictions for the games can move as well.
• Second, we continue to update the public pick info to reflect the latest numbers. If public pick data changes, that can have an effect on the ordering of the picks, and on which teams look like the best options this week.
• Finally, the results of earlier games can impact the ideal strategy if you’re picking a team that plays Sunday or Monday. For example, if a super popular team loses on Thursday, the value of simply surviving this week increases, so our pick suggestions may get more conservative.

Why Getting Picks Later Is Better — In The Long Run

Consequently — and we can’t stress this enough — If you want to base your pick(s) on the most up to date information, come back and update your My Pool Picks custom rankings on the day of your pool deadline to get the latest info.

Some users find it frustrating that the Top Options on Sunday may be different than the Top Options earlier in the week. But if you think about it, it’s the only way to go. Why would you want to make a key decision based on stale information? Things do change during a week’s time; news breaks, reliable predictors like betting odds shift. So you want to take advantage of the latest information before your weekly pick deadline.

Just Remember That Anything Can Happen In The Short Run

Does this strategy guarantee a win? Of course not. There are going to be situations when a top-rated pick for your pool from earlier in the week wins, but because of shifts in the data, there’s a new top-rated pick for your pool toward the end of the week — and that pick ends up losing. The reverse, of course, will happen too.

This scenario happened right off the bat in Week 1 of 2016, when Arizona surged up the pick rankings for many pools as kickoff time approached, largely thanks to a huge move in betting odds in their favor. The point spread for Arizona opened at -5.5, but had moved up a full 4 points to -9.5 closer to kick off time.

That made Arizona nearly as big a favorite as the “safest” pick of the week, Seattle, who was favored by 10.5 over Miami; yet Seattle was more than 10x as popular a pick as Arizona (32% picked, vs. 3% for Arizona), and had more future value. After that line move, the ability to pick a team with Arizona’s profile was an absolutely fantastic opportunity that only rarely presents itself.

Of course, we all know what the outcomes were. Both teams underperformed; Arizona muffed a game winning field goal and lost, Seattle got lucky and scored a TD with 30 seconds left to barely eke out a victory.

If the short-term luck had gone the other way (Arizona makes the kick, Seattle doesn’t get that TD) it would have been a pretty epic week for Arizona pickers. But it wasn’t to be, and rubbing salt in the wound was the fact that for many types of pools teams that were ranked as the #1 pick earlier in the week, before Arizona rose in the rankings, ended up winning.

There’s really not much to say here besides you can’t confuse outcomes with strategy. Historically, teams that close as 9-point favorites win more often than teams that close as smaller favorites — but that doesn’t mean they always win.

All you can do is make the smartest risk vs. reward decisions you can, using the freshest possible data. You can’t allow yourself to have any remorse if the odds don’t play out in your favor. Like a kicker who shanks a kick, you need to have “no memory” — or else the next time a similar opportunity comes up (a rare chance to increase your expected value by taking a pick more likely to win than the previously ranked #1 pick for your pool), you might waver and not take it.

As a side note, that’s also why playing portfolios of picks is so important in the risky world of survivor pools. Even if you take a hit with a loss or two early on, you may well benefit from the same type of luck breaking YOUR way with your remaining entry/entries in a future week. A large portfolio gives you a “luck cushion” that allows you to bounce back from one unlucky week, and gives you more time for luck to hopefully even out over the course of the season.