EV Calculator Feature Tutorial
Our EV Calculator let's you adjust public pick percentages or win odds to see the impact on expected value.
The EV Calculator allows you to change the win odds or pick popularity figures and see the impact on expected value. You can read about what goes into calculating Expected Value here.
The weekly EV displayed on the Data Grid page is based on a single-entry standard rules pool. When it comes to making customized pick rankings for each of your pools, the EV will be calculated based on the specific size and rules of your pool, and incorporate our projected win odds and pick popularity.
But maybe you know, or think, that the entries in your pool will be picking teams differently than the public overall. This may be because you are later into the pool with only a few entries left, for example, and know specifically that a certain team is unavailable.
You can use the EV calculator to see what the EV would be if you changed those values.
Using the EV Calculator
When you click on the EV Calculator, the first thing you need to input is the specific number of entries remaining in the pool.
From there, you will be taken to a Data Input page. You can adjust the win odds of any particular game up or down by either inputting the number, or using the +/- buttons. Any changes you make to one team will automatically be applied to their opponent, so that the total winning percentage for that game stays at 100%.
You can also adjust the pick popularity numbers for your pool. The default settings here will be that the pick numbers are set to closely mirror the public pick rates, rounded as necessary. For example, if you indicate there are 20 total entries remaining, and a team has a public pick popularity of 8%, the default would likely show 2 entries as picking that team (10%).
If you adjust the pick popularity numbers, you will need to make sure they add up to the total number of entries for your pool. The progress bar at the top of the EV Calculator aids in this. If the pick popularity numbers add up to match the number of entries you indicated at the beginning of the process, it will be green and say “You’re Good.” If you have too few entries allocated to teams, it will be colored blue and tell you how many you need to add. If you have too many entries allocated, it will be colored red.
Once you have made the adjustments to either pick popularity or win odds to your satisfaction, and the progress bar is green, you can hit “Get Top EV Picks” and the page generated will show the matching EVs to your inputs.
Disclaimers on Customized EV Results
The page shows Immediate EV values for all teams, for a single entry in a single standard-rules pool, customized based on your inputs from the previous two screens. We provide this research tool in case you want to make your own picks, or to tweak the picks suggested by the My Pool Picks tool.
Important notes:
- Remember that Immediate EV does not factor in the value of saving a specific team for future use. When evaluating the picks listed below, it’s important to consider that some teams will be more valuable to save than others. Consult the Future Value listed in your custom pick rankings to help judge the value of saving a team. (See our strategy article on Future Value here if you want more details about why we use it).
- The “Your Win Odds” and “Your Opponent Pick %” values are shown for reference, and are the same as the values you entered on the previous page (or the defaults we loaded in, if you didn’t change a given value).
- We say “Your” to stress the fact that these values, which were customized on the previous page, may be different from the TR Win Odds and national public pick percentage for each team that we show in the My Pool Picks tool.