Optimal Path Feature Tutorial
The Optimal Path Tool allows you to see what path of weekly selections leads to the highest odds of survival or expected value.
The Optimal Path Tool provides another powerful supplemental tool within our Survivor Pool Picks product. You can use this tool to see the optimal path of team selections through each week of the season, based on current projections at the time you use it, to achieve one of two goals. Those two versions are:
- Maximize Odds to Survive the Rest of Season; and
- Maximize Expected Winnings.
How to Use the Optimal Path Tool
The Optimal Path tool is designed to be used at any point during the season. You can look at it at the start of the NFL season to have a general idea of some of the best paths available. Of course, information changes over time, some teams end up performing worse or better than expected for a number of reasons. With those changes, what becomes optimal strategy also changes and you can also use this tool to see those changes even after the season begins.
The first step in using the Optimal Path Tool is to select any teams you have already used in prior weeks. Obviously, at the outset of the season, you would not select any teams.
Once you have selected out any teams already used, you can generate your optimal path for one or both of the versions.
UPDATE for 2025: You can now also designate multiple pick weeks and a bye week, as well as load your entries into the tool. Here is a fuller explanation of the upgrades.
Maximize Odds to Survive the Rest of Season
If you want to see the path that gives you the best odds to survive the season, without any other considerations, this is the path to look at. It will find the best path to end up with the highest odds of survival through Week 18.
It does not take into account the likely pick popularity of picks, though, and since many of the teams/weeks recommended in this mode will be popular, it may not match up with the best path by expected value.
Maximize Expected Winnings
If you choose this version, you will get the projected best path taking into account expected value, by looking at both win odds and projected pick popularity. This version might have a lower overall probability of survival, but the tradeoff is that it is projected to increase your winnings because fewer other entries would be expected to follow it.
For both of these versions, you can also choose to see only the top optimal path, or you can choose to see alternate versions which have slight variations in some of the weekly choices. (Viewing and comparing the alternate versions can give you a sense of which selections are stronger plays versus those that are among a group of roughly equal options).