Max Survival vs. Max EV Paths: Why Underdogs Pop Up in Holiday Weeks
Why would a Max EV path suggest an underdog in Circa Survivor? And how does it differ from the Max Survival Optimal Path?
by Jason Lisk - Sep 10, 2025
Caleb Williams is +EV to frustrate his coach. (Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)
We’ve gotten some questions in Discord (you can join here) about the Max EV Path outputs, especially around holiday weeks with potential underdog teams like Chicago and Dallas. Here’s a quick overview of what the Max EV and Max Survival paths mean, and how to think about them in Circa Survivor.
Max Survival vs. Max EV Paths
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Max Survival Path: The route with the highest chance of going undefeated, based only on win odds. In Circa (20 picks), this represents your best odds of being a winner. It does not take into consideration the popularity of the route at all.
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Max EV Path: Optimizes for Expected Value, which blends win odds (risk) with reward (prize equity gained if your pick wins). EV depends on both win odds and pick popularity.
These two things can often diverge in holiday weeks. Popular favorites (Philadelphia, Washington) show up on Max Survival, while their opponents (Chicago, Baltimore) sometimes show up on Max EV.
Let’s break down why this happens.
Why EV Can Favor Underdogs on Holidays
In normal weeks, underdogs rarely appear in Max EV paths because they’re bad bets. The popular favorites are usually more in the 30% picked range as larger favorites, and we rarely see teams at over 50% popularity.
But on holidays in Circa Survivor, the most popular teams have been picked by over half the pool on average. Their extremely high popularity lowers EV, while their opponents’ EV rises despite win odds under 50% (and often under 35%).
Here’s a table showing all the teams that have played on the Thanksgiving pick week over the last five years, along with their popularity, odds, and EV using that actual pick data.
| Year | Team | Picks | Pick Pct | Spread | Win Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | KC | 29 | 53.7% | -13.5 | 87.1% | 1.01 | W |
| 2024 | DET | 17 | 31.5% | -10 | 80.6% | 1.00 | W |
| 2024 | DAL | 5 | 9.3% | -4 | 67.0% | 0.95 | W |
| 2024 | GB | 3 | 5.6% | -3.5 | 63.3% | 0.94 | W |
| 2024 | MIA | 0 | 0.0% | 3.5 | 36.7% | 0.70 | L |
| 2024 | NYG | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 33.0% | 0.68 | L |
| 2024 | CHI | 0 | 0.0% | 10 | 19.4% | 0.61 | L |
| 2024 | LV | 0 | 0.0% | 13.5 | 12.9% | 0.59 | L |
| 2023 | DET | 216 | 58.2% | -8.5 | 78.9% | 0.89 | L |
| 2023 | DAL | 94 | 25.3% | -13 | 86.7% | 1.22 | W |
| 2023 | MIA | 32 | 8.6% | -9.5 | 80.0% | 1.23 | W |
| 2023 | GB | 12 | 3.2% | 8.5 | 21.1% | 0.73 | W |
| 2023 | SF | 11 | 3.0% | -7 | 74.2% | 1.18 | W |
| 2023 | NYJ | 5 | 1.3% | 9.5 | 20.0% | 0.39 | L |
| 2023 | SEA | 1 | 0.3% | 7 | 25.8% | 0.45 | L |
| 2023 | WAS | 0 | 0.0% | 13 | 13.3% | 0.40 | L |
| 2022 | BUF | 41 | 58.6% | -9.5 | 79.0% | 0.91 | W |
| 2022 | DAL | 21 | 30.0% | -10 | 79.9% | 1.14 | W |
| 2022 | MIN | 5 | 7.1% | -2.5 | 56.3% | 1.10 | W |
| 2022 | NE | 3 | 4.3% | 2.5 | 43.7% | 1.05 | L |
| 2022 | NYG | 0 | 0.0% | 10 | 20.1% | 0.84 | L |
| 2022 | DET | 0 | 0.0% | 9.5 | 21.0% | 1.05 | L |
| 2021 | DAL | 80 | 59.7% | -7 | 74.1% | 0.91 | L |
| 2021 | CHI | 21 | 15.7% | -2.5 | 55.1% | 1.04 | W |
| 2021 | BUF | 15 | 11.2% | -7 | 73.2% | 1.34 | W |
| 2021 | DET | 14 | 10.4% | 2.5 | 44.9% | 1.01 | L |
| 2021 | LV | 4 | 3.0% | 7 | 25.9% | 1.13 | W |
| 2021 | NO | 0 | 0.0% | 7 | 26.8% | 0.69 | L |
| 2020 | DAL | 90 | 43.7% | -2.5 | 56.4% | 0.88 | L |
| 2020 | HOU | 76 | 36.9% | -3 | 59.9% | 0.93 | W |
| 2020 | WAS | 29 | 14.1% | 2.5 | 43.6% | 1.41 | W |
| 2020 | DET | 11 | 5.3% | 3 | 40.1% | 1.36 | L |
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From 2020–24, the most popular Thanksgiving team averaged 54.8% of all picks and a pretty low 0.92 EV.
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Their opponents averaged 4.1% picks and 0.98 EV, with three of those five underdogs posting +EV (meaning EV > 1.00).
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Three of the underdogs opposite the most popular favorites won on Thanksgiving, and four of the top 10 EV holiday teams have been underdogs.
- Fun fact: In the first five years of Circa Survivor, 7 of 79 entries that picked a Thanksgiving underdog went on to win Circa Survivor (8.9%) vs. 47 of 756 that picked a favorite (6.2%).
On Christmas, dynamics can differ—sometimes, only a few players remain, which changes the math. In two of the four years Circa Survivor has used the Christmas games separately, only four entries made it there. Going with a direct underdog when making up a high percentage of the remaining entries is a far worse decision.
Still, if there is a large enough pool of entries left, the underdogs opposite popular picks can still show +EV. The underdog strategy is most viable when a lot of entries are left, so that others picking the underdog as well do not sink the value of the pick.
Circa Survivor Strategy Takeaways
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Survival should usually come first: cutting your win odds by 75% just to chase a thinner split is often too risky.
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Still, if your goal is maximizing prize share or chasing a solo win, holiday underdogs opposite heavy favorites (like Chicago or Dallas in 2025) can be viable.
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The best approach is to arrive at the holidays with multiple options. Don’t plan on underdogs, but recognize that they may offer the best EV in certain scenarios.