Circa Survivor Week 3 Strategy & Picks (2026)
Our Week 3 Circa Survivor strategy article looks at the top options for the week, where the contest is headed, and more.
by Jason Lisk - Sep 24, 2026
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs now get the Miami Dolphins
The 2026 Circa Survivor Contest has already lost nearly two-thirds of the field in just two weeks. After the Chargers wiped out 30% of entries in Week 1, the week projected as the lowest elimination rate of the season turned into the highest yet — Tampa Bay, the LA Chargers and Baltimore all losing on the same weekend sent 49.3% of the remaining field home. Two weeks in, 8,608 entries remain from the 24,999 that submitted a pick.
This article covers what the brutal start means for the season ahead, the Week 3 pick landscape, and strategy thoughts for navigating a week with almost nothing but holiday teams on the board.
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How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2026?
We set our Week 2 over/under at 18.5. That number is coming down — sharply.
The week our model projected as the lowest elimination rate of the season ended up as the highest, at 49.3%. Three of the five biggest favorites lost in Week 2, accelerating the thinning of the field in a way that changes the long-term outlook. We are resetting the projected winner over/under to 13.5 heading into Week 3.
That said, the contest is not on track to end early, yet. The prize pool stands at $25,017,000, the surviving entries still have most of their best teams available, and the holiday slates remain the most likely place where the real damage gets done. Thirteen or fourteen winners splitting $25 million is still a remarkable outcome for anyone who gets there.
Week 2: A Disaster for the Single Entries
We all know that Tampa Bay’s loss took out a big chunk of the Circa pool, but it wasn’t uniform. There was a clear difference in Tampa Bay usage depending on the number of entries remaining in the contest.
Those down to a single entry broke heaviest for Tampa Bay, with over half of those that entered the week with a single bullet going with the Bucs. Those with 2-3 entries remaining also went heavier Tampa at 43%, while the largest portfolios used them less than average.
Circa Survivor Week 3: Projected Pick Popularity
Our Circa Survivor Data Grid got an upgrade late last week, and you can now see a note in the future value column if the team is a holiday team for Circa. That comes just in time for this week, where of the seven teams favored by 4.5 or more points, all but one play on a holiday. And that one is San Francisco, the team that most of the pool used to survive last week. Here’s what we are showing as of Wednesday for popularity.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) at Miami (44%): The Chiefs are the runaway favorite this week, projecting as an 11.5-point road favorite against one of the weakest teams in the league. Kansas City plays on the Thanksgiving slate, but so does nearly everyone else under consideration. Relatively speaking, we expect the Chiefs to be a “use” versus “save” since their holiday matchup is against Buffalo. The loss of Giants QB Jaxson Dart to a season-ending injury removed what would have been the week’s most natural low-future-value alternative, another factor that will push the popular pick higher than it looked a week ago.
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