Circa Survivor Week 4 Strategy & Picks (2026)
In Week 4 Circa Survivor, we look at the massive favorites in Minnesota and Baltimore, look at the contest projections, and take a look at the max-entry decisions and survival rates.
by Jason Lisk - Oct 2, 2026
Lamar Jackson will try to forget the Titans and advance your survivor pick
Another week, more carnage in the 2026 Circa Survivor Contest. The Kansas City Chiefs occupied over half of the picks last week, and they advanced. Not picking Kansas City, though, was hazardous, as only 45% of the non-Kansas City picks advanced in a week where only four of the next 12 favorites drawing at least 1% of picks won. After three weeks, 6,292 entries remain from the 24,999 that submitted a pick in Week 1.
This article covers what the brutal start means for the season ahead, the Week 4 pick landscape, and strategy thoughts for a week where a big part of the field is likely to be on one of two teams, both in purple.
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How Many Winners Should We Expect in 2026?
Our average number of winners is at 14. However, that is a (mean) average pulled up by scenarios where a larger group of winners finish the season.
We have been working on some simulation models, and the median result is closer to 4 winners. So we will revise after yet another week where a big chunk of the field got cut, and where there are a lot of entries with the same start. About one-third of all entries still alive in the contest have used exactly Jacksonville-San Francisco-Kansas City through three weeks.
Here’s a summary of the distribution of outcomes.
| Ending Week | Probability |
|---|---|
| By Week 14 | 1.4% |
| Week 15 | 1.7% |
| Christmas Week | 8.7% |
| Week 17 | 7.8% |
| Week 18 | 80.5% |
We have never had a solo champion in Circa Survivor, and have never had a contest end before the NFL season is complete. The early eliminations, and types of teams used so far to get through, have at least opened the door. It’s unlikely to end before Christmas, but there is a not-insignificant number of scenarios where it could end with picks in the two-pick Christmas and Week 16B game, or in Week 17.
In just over 80% of the simulations, the contest requires picks to be made in Week 18.
Max Entry Players: Concentrate All-In or Diversify?
We are just three weeks in, but here’s an overview of how the 10-entry max contestants have done based on how they approached Week 1, in terms of total number of teams picked.
| Week 1 Teams Used | Players | Entries Alive | Entry Survival Rate | Players Still Alive | Contestant Survival Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 285 | 1,050 | 36.8% | 105 | 36.8% |
| 2 | 199 | 569 | 28.6% | 139 | 69.8% |
| 3 | 251 | 663 | 26.4% | 210 | 83.7% |
| 4 | 262 | 677 | 25.8% | 239 | 91.2% |
| 5+ | 230 | 471 | 20.5% | 218 | 94.8% |
| All | 1,227 | 3,430 | 28.0% | 911 | 74.2% |
There is a clear relationship between how concentrated the 10-entry players started in Week 1, and survival rate by entry. However, the downside of going all-in is increased risk of total elimination, and we see that.
Nearly two-thirds of the contestants that started Week 1 by putting all 10 on the same team are now out of the contest entirely. The diversifiers have a lower per-entry survival rate but much higher rates of having “a chip and a chair” and being live in the contest.
Circa Survivor Week 4: Projected Pick Popularity
This week on the Data Grid, you can now see market EV in addtion to the EV from our model odds. Here’s what we are showing as of Wednesday for popularity, where only four teams are projected for more than 2% of picks right now.
- Minnesota (-10.5) vs. Miami (46%): It’s Minnesota’s turn to play Miami, and for popularity to spike. We’ve seen 40% on San Francisco, 51% on Kansas City, and we are projecting in between those points now. Minnesota has a bit more competition with Baltimore being the bigger favorite, which is why we don’t think they quite get pushed all the way to the Chiefs number from last week.
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