Circa Survivor Week 1 Strategy & Picks (2026)
Get ready for Week 1 in Circa Survivor with our strategy article, where we highlight expected top picks, provide videos going through strategy, and more.
by Jason Lisk - Sep 11, 2026
The Chargers and Raiders will both be factors in Week 1 in Circa Survivor
The 2026 Circa Survivor Contest is on pace to be the largest ever, after nearly 19,000 entries competed last year and five of them split a $18.7 million prize pool. This year, the pot is guaranteed to reach at least $20 million. How many winners will share it?
This article will serve as your guide leading up to the Week 1 start of Circa Survivor 2026, with breakdowns of the teams we expect to draw the most picks, links to YouTube strategy videos, and strategy discussion for Week 1 picks. We’ll continue updating this article through the pick deadline.
Get Your Circa Survivor Tools for 2026
Our Circa Survivor Picks Product is now for sale (more on the packages below). Some of the features are free to everyone, while others are behind the paywall for premium subscribers.
Free Access Includes
- My Entries: Load and track your own entries (or others) throughout the contest.
- Multi-Entry Survival Tool: Run scenarios with different pick combinations to see expected outcomes.
- Pick History: Research tools showing standings and results from past years, as well as the current contest (once the first pick deadline has passed).
- Free 2026 Circa Strategy Guide: downloadable with a free registration
Premium Access Includes
Premium access gives you all the free features above, along with these additional features:
- Data Grid: Popularity estimates, future value projections, and more.
- Optimal Path & Season Planner: Identify the best long-term routes through the season.
- EV Calculator: Quantify expected value on your picks.
- Full access to all Circa Survivor articles.
- All of these premium tools integrate with “My Entries” so you can apply them directly to your loaded entries and run analysis on your entries.
Subscription Options
- Pools and Betting All-Access: If you’re already an All-Access subscriber, you automatically get full access to Circa Survivor Picks at no additional cost.
- Standalone Circa Survivor Product: This product is available separately for anyone interested only in Circa Survivor and not playing in other pools throughout the year.
- Week 1 Free Trial: If you want to check out the tools for Week 1 before deciding whether you want to subscribe, you can sign up for our Week 1 Free Trial.
You can view all the subscription options here.
Circa Survivor 2026 Week 1 Popularity Projections
Here are our projections for the top five teams in popularity for Week 1 (updated Thursday September 10, check the Data Grid for the latest projections).
- Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) vs. Arizona (35%): The Chargers could be the first double-digit favorite in Week 1 since 2019, which means plenty will have a hard time moving to significantly riskier options right away. However, we have seen a slight line movement down in the last week.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Cleveland (31%): The Jaguars are the second-biggest favorite of the week, and this could be one of the best spots for them, though they also look like one of the bigger favorites on the Sunday after Thanksgiving as well. The line move up to 8.5 points has closed the gap with the Chargers, but also likely will increase their popularity
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. Arizona (9%): The Steelers have moved up to a 3.5-point favorite, and with the Brock Bowers news lowering the Raiders’ odds. a bit, the Steelers will also now likely see more popularity in the contest.
- Detroit Lions (-7) vs. New Orleans (8%): The Lions play on the important Thanksgiving slate at home against Chicago, and we also project them for five other weeks with over 70% win odds, which is why we project them to draw notably fewer picks than the top two despite strong win odds.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs. Miami (5%): The Raiders start off against Miami, the team with the lowest preseason win total for 2026, and this is one of the few weeks where they project as a legitimate Circa option. That should lead to some pick interest in a 20-pick contest. However, the news that TE Brock Bowers is out has lowered the spread to the key number of 3, shortening the odds a bit. On the other hand, the popularity is now projected to be lower as well.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Washington (5%): The week falls off quickly after the top three teams, and the Eagles, as a 4.5-point favorite, are the only other team besides the top trio favored by more than 4.5 points as of now. They do play on both Thanksgiving and Christmas, which is why we do not project higher popularity.
We still have 7% of all picks projected on teams outside these six, so check out our Data Grid for all the details of who we think could draw picks in Week 1.
Circa Survivor 2026 Week 1 Strategy and Portfolio Thoughts
This analysis was posted September 11, 2026 at 7:30 ET.
Week 1 has been flipped on its head in the span of seven days, and the fallout makes for a more unpredictable start to the season. A week ago, the Los Angeles Chargers looked like the clear chalk, as a 10.5-point favorite. Detroit and Philadelphia, two of the other three teams favored by more than 3.5 points, both play on the holidays and have decent enough future value that several will save them. Jacksonville was the only other clear option to get popularity over 10%.
Since then, we’ve seen that gap between the Chargers and Jaguars close in the odds, and likely pick popularity as well, to the point that it would not be unreasonable if the results are announced on Saturday night and it’s the Jaguars, and not the Chargers, who have the most picks on them. We currently have them projected at 32% and 29%.
And then two other seismic shift results happened for Circa. First, the Raiders’ odds went down after TE Brock Bowers was announced as missing the game, and they are now only a 3-point favorite. Then, the Pittsburgh Steelers moved from a 3-point favorite on Monday, to a 6-point favorite today, on the news that QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury in practice and will miss, and it will be Cooper Rush starting for Atlanta.
That 3-point line move has shot the Steelers into the fourth position in odds, and close enough to Detroit that the massive difference in future value should lead to even fewer picks on Detroit (and Philadelphia) and more flowing to Pittsburgh. The question is just how much. The difficulty with the Steelers projection is that things are shifting so quickly, and right before many are submitting picks to proxies. Just last year, we saw a big line shift on Thursday in Week 5 result in massive 28% number on the Rams as the line moved several points in the hours before pick submission for that game. While that number would surprise us a little, Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite with low future value is exactly the type of team to gain steam. We are setting them at 19% but would not be surprised if it goes a little higher, and would be shocked at this point if it came in below 16%.
Outside of those three, which we are now projecting for 80% of all picks, and no one else above 6%. Detroit, Las Vegas (still due to the low future value even with the odds shift down) and Philadelphia are the only others we are projecting over 2%.
Best Picks by Optimal Path – Survival
In a vacuum, the three best picks are the three expected to draw the picks. A look at the Max Survival Optimal Path results by using each option in Week 1 shows a notable advantage by using any of Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Chargers, or Jacksonville versus any other team.
| Week 1 Pick | Overall Path Survival |
|---|---|
| PIT | 0.44% |
| LAC | 0.44% |
| JAC | 0.43% |
| LV | 0.40% |
| PHI | 0.37% |
| DET | 0.35% |
| BAL | 0.35% |
| CIN | 0.33% |
| CHI | 0.33% |
| DAL | 0.33% |
| KC | 0.33% |
You take a 25% drop in your path survival chances through a full season by moving off one of those teams and dropping down to the group that includes Cincinnati, Chicago, Dallas, and Kansas City.
Fourth is actually Las Vegas, as the ultimate higher risk/higher reward team. It still takes some stones to take them, but if you get through, they would be a valuable entry to have.
Philadelphia and Detroit are the opposite, teams that leave you needing to make up ground on future value one week in, versus the field, but who do provide decent EV leverage for this week because of lower expected ownership while three different teams should have decently high popularity. If you are going to use one of them, it probably makses sense as a diversity play on the end of a portfolio.
Portfolio Thoughts
You could make an argument for any of the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Pittsburgh Steelers as the best pick of the week, when looking at path odds, EV, and survival chances this week.
You also probably don’t want to pick all three on a portfolio, or at least shouldn’t be near the expected pick rates on each or you are just mirroring the field. You should consider taking a stand, either by picking one or at most two of them, and either fading the other or being very light (1 out of 10 picks) on the third. Being on all three at like a 4-3-3 distribution doesn’t feel like it is the way to go here.
Basically, you want to set it up so you can benefit versus the field by being off one of them and rooting for that upset, or being light and benefitting if it does happen relative to the field (something like 5-4-1 or 6-3-1 if you want to use all three).
As for alternatives you can consider if you want part of your picks off those three, the Eagles or Lions could make sense from a small position, though because of their holiday importance you probably don’t want to use these teams over a larger chunk of your portfolio.
The other teams listed above are really the only others I would consider, as diversity plays just to sprinkle something different, at low ownership that should not get much steam in this contest, just in case it is a wild Week 1 with lots of upsets up top.
Circa Survivor Week 1 Video
Mike Buchmiller of Survivor Sweat joined Jason Lisk to discuss Week 1 in the Circa Survivor contest. Buchmiller is a past winner, of the 2022 contest, and also had an entry that finished tied for 11th last year. (The video was recorded on Labor Day weekend, before the Raiders news and line shift.)
Circa Survivor Strategy Episodes on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel
You can get ready for the season by watching some of our Circa content on the PoolGenius YouTube Channel.
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