Circa Survivor Week 8 Breakdown (2023)
Last week, picking Seattle was the skeleton key in the 2023 Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest, as most other entries got picked out. Now, over 93% of the advancing entries got to this point by using the Seahawks.
For Week 8, we have a lot more options, but the Chargers are the projected clear choice for those saving future value.
In this article, we project the Week 8 choices and pick rates in Circa. Below, you will also find a table projecting the future value rankings for all 32 NFL teams, listing out value projections, number of potentially usable weeks remaining, and contest availability. We also have tables showing specific projections and break-even pick popularity for the Thanksgiving and Christmas games.
We also have an Optimal Path chart showing the combination of picks that provide the highest odds of getting to the end, based on what we project now, for an entry that has used the seven most common picks so far.
Week 8 Pick Rate Predictions
Here is the table showing the predicted popularity estimates for Week 8, as well as EV and future value.
Circa Future Value Estimates, Weeks 9 to 18
Next is a table summarizing the future value for all teams in the contest.
Some notes on the Future Value calculations here, as they are different than what is displayed on the site in our normal FV formula.
- They account for the holiday weeks as separate pick weeks
- They allocate future value for each week for all teams projected within a certain win odds threshold of both the current projected top favorite of the week, and the top five highest win odds projections for that week.
- “Weeks” is the number of future weeks where that team might be in consideration as a Circa pick, based on our current win odds projections.
- “Availability” is the percentage of entries that are still alive that could pick that team.