Circa Survivor Week 7 Breakdown (2023)

Last week, most entries got through in the 2023 Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest, as Philadelphia and San Francisco were not that popular, and now the contest has 1,789 entries remaining for a prize pool over $9 million dollars.

For Week 7, we have a fascinating week. Seattle will be extremely popular, perhaps more popular than any team in the history of the contest. If you want to avoid Seattle, you either have to use one of the most valuable teams in the contest, or take on a lot of risk and pick a team favored by three points or fewer.

In this article, we project the Week 7 choices and pick rates in Circa. Below, you will also find a table projecting the future value rankings for all 32 NFL teams, listing out value projections, number of potentially usable weeks remaining, and contest availability. We also have tables showing specific projections and break-even pick popularity for the Thanksgiving and Christmas games.

NEW for Week 7, we also add an Optimal Path chart showing the combination of picks that provide the highest odds of getting to the end, based on what we project now.

Week 7 Pick Rate Predictions

Here is the table showing the predicted popularity estimates for Week 7, as well as EV and future value.

TeamProjectedEVFV Rank
SEA62%0.8520
BUF15%1.322
LV7%1.1017
LAR7%1.1014
KC4%1.333
SF3%1.451

Circa Future Value Estimates, Weeks 8 to 18

Next is a table summarizing the future value for all teams in the contest.

Some notes on the Future Value calculations here, as they are different than what is displayed on the site in our normal FV formula.

  • They account for the holiday weeks as separate pick weeks
  • They allocate future value for each week for all teams projected within a certain win odds threshold of both the current projected top favorite of the week, and the top five highest win odds projections for that week.
  • “Weeks” is the number of future weeks where that team might be in consideration as a Circa pick, based on our current win odds projections.
  • “Availability” is the percentage of entries that are still alive that could pick that team.

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