Circa Survivor Contest Week 8 (2022)
Week 8 presents some unique challenges in the Circa Survivor contest, as two of the biggest favorites this week also happen to be two teams you might want to have for Thanksgiving. Jason breaks it down in the above video, and more detailed future value info and holiday info is contained in the discussion and tables below.
Circa Week 7 Results
Circa is down to just 125 entries remaining after seven weeks, as a whopping 46% of the entries that were still alive entering Week 7 picked the Patriots. Another 18% went out with the Tampa Bay loss.
The most common pick to survive were the Raiders (22%) and the Dolphins (7%) and no other team was picked by more than 2% of entries.
As a result, only 2% of the original pool is still alive as we enter Week 8, and each remaining entry has a pot odds value of $49,064 ($6,133,000 divided by 125).
Each week, Jason projects the Circa pick rates to try to assess strategy and value. Here’s how that went in Week 7:
Similar to other weeks, the error rate was on average +/- 3% for the eight most popular picks. Again, the projections were directionally correct that New England would be even more popular than national public pick data, but the Circa crowd leaned even heavier into the Patriots and less on some of the alternative plays (maybe they shouldn’t have.)
After six weeks, there is only one contestant (CRUSHEMSPORTS.COM) that has made it through with all six entries (by picking the same team with each entry). Last week, that contestant went with all six on Las Vegas.
Only one other contestant has three entries, and six have two entries. That means 104 single entries remain.
Our recommendations last week, based on projected pick rates, were to focus on Miami (good) and Tampa Bay because of higher EV (not good), and if needing to save future value on your entry, to prefer Las Vegas over a New England team that was likely to be too popular.
Week 8 and Future Value Estimates
Here are some custom future value estimates for the Circa contest, accounting for the Thanksgiving and Christmas pick weeks, as well as the reduced options for games that fall during those same weeks but aren’t part of those holiday slates. These take into account our projected win odds for future weeks, and the distribution of options available in those weeks.