Circa Survivor 2023: Rest of Season Optimal Paths

Jason from PoolGenius gives a final breakdown of the remaining options in Circa Survivor 2023, with the contest under 100 entries.

Week 9 Survivor

TJ Watt and the Steelers are going to come up a few times in the closing weeks of Circa survivor (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)

After a wild two-pick segment that saw Detroit lose on Thanksgiving as the most popular pick, followed by both the Patriots and Vikings losing, the Circa Survivor contest has been decimated.

Over 370 entries were alive entering Thursday last week, but now 80 are still alive to compete for the prize pool of over $9 million in the 2023 Circa Survivor Pro Football Contest.

With under a hundred entries left, we are going to post one final analysis here, laying out the optimal path for some of the common entry situations, for Weeks 13 to 18. Those big wipeouts changed things, but we are still tracking toward likely needing to go all the way through Week 18 undefeated to cash in the contest. Right now, the projection would be for 5-10 entries to split the pot, though last week’s results at least increased the possibility of a solo outright winner.

Circa Survivor, Most Used Teams Through Week 12

Here is a summary of the teams that have been used the most, sorted by how many entries still have them available of the 80 remaining.

  • Miami – 1
  • Dallas – 2
  • Seattle – 2
  • Buffalo – 5
  • Detroit – 5
  • San Francisco – 10
  • Washington – 13
  • Kansas City – 14
  • Baltimore – 25
  • Cleveland – 33
  • Jacksonville – 34
  • Tennessee – 34
  • LA Rams – 37
  • LA Chargers – 40

All other teams are available to more than half the entries remaining in the contest entering Week 13.

Circa Survivor Optimal Path Examples

Here are three different optimal path examples. The first, “Weekly” represents an entry that got through with the most popular team to advance that was available to that entry each week. It has used, in order: WAS, BUF, KC, SF, MIA, LAR, SEA, LAC, CLE, DAL, JAC, GB, TEN.

The next one, “Season,” has used the 13 most commonly used teams for the overall season to this point, so it substitutes out LAC+GB and has already used DET+BAL. The third one, marked “KC/JAC” has Kansas City and Jacksonville available, instead of the Chargers and Packers or Ravens and Lions, like the first two entries. It serves as a kind of proxy for the type of entry that has used most of the high value teams but has a few available.

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