What Do The Pick Notes And Labels Mean?

You may notice that we have some labels and notes to the side of some recommended picks. This explains what they mean.

On the detailed pick pages, we includes a couple columns that are designed to help explain why we are recommending a specific game to be used in this pick set. The notes vary a bit based on the type of pool you are in. Here’s a key.

Spread Based (ATS) Pools

Confidence Explanation
Model Pick Our predictive models think this pick has more than a 50% chance to cover the spread.
Coin Flip Our predictive models think this pick has very close to 50% cover odds.
Low Our predictive models think this pick has less than a 50% chance to cover the spread.

 

Pick Notes Explanation
Value Pick We believe this team has close to a 50% chance or better to win, and we also believe the public is underestimating the team’s chances. That’s a great combination.
Value Gamble Our models don’t favor this pick to win, but we still think it’s worth the risk because the public is underestimating the team’s chances.
Defensive Pick Our models don’t favor this pick to win, but a large enough percentage of the public is picking them that siding with the public will make it difficult for opponents to gain ground on you.
Fade The Public Our models don’t favor this pick to win and it’s not a value pick either, but you need to take some additional risks in order to maximize your chance of achieving your goal.
Diversity Pick Our models don’t favor this team to win, but when playing multiple entries it’s important to vary the picks some between pick sets so that in cases where one pick set does poorly, the other(s) might do well. Typically this can entail flipping some picks where the projected cover% is near 50%.
Off This game has been taken “off the board” at major sportsbooks. This increases the uncertainty of our predictions for this game. We adjust your custom pick rankings to account for this added uncertainty.

Game Winner Based (Non-ATS) Pools

 

Data Column Explanation
Win Odds The percentage chance that our pick has to win its game this week, accoring to our computer prediction models. (Game winner pools only)

 

Pick Notes Explanation
Value Pick We believe this team has close to a 50% chance or better to win, and we also believe the public is underestimating the team’s chances. That’s a great combination.
Value Gamble Our models don’t favor this pick to win, but we still think it’s worth the risk because the public is underestimating the team’s chances.
Defensive Pick Our models don’t favor this pick to win, but a large enough percentage of the public is picking them that siding with the public will make it difficult for opponents to gain ground on you.
Fade The Public Our models don’t favor this pick to win and it’s not a value pick either, but you need to take some additional risks in order to maximize your chance of achieving your goal.
Diversity Pick Our models don’t favor this team to win, but when playing multiple entries it’s important to vary the picks some between pick sets so that in cases where one pick set does poorly, the other(s) might do well. Typically this can entail flipping some picks where the projected win% is near 50%.
Off This game has been taken “off the board” at major sportsbooks. This increases the uncertainty of our predictions for this game. We adjust your custom pick rankings to account for this added uncertainty.