Week 3 Survivor Picks Strategy & Advice (2024)
Survivor pools have been taking a beating so far in 2024, so who should you consider in Week 3 to try to stay alive?
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have dodged defeat so far (Steven King/Icon Sportswire)
The first two weeks of 2024 have been wild for survivor pools. For the second week in a row, the biggest favorite and most popular pick lost. Teams favored by a touchdown or more are 0-3 this year. Below, we provide a full recap of the chaos and put it all in perspective in our weekly breakdown as you prepare to make your Week 3 survivor picks.
In these weekly columns, we explore strategies to maximize your edge in NFL survivor pools, also known as knockout pools or eliminator pools. We also provide some of the rationale behind picks potentially recommended by our product.
We plan to periodically update this post until Sunday of Week 3 arrives. Here’s what’s available now:
- 9/18: Future Value and Week 3
- 9/17: Five Most Popular Survivor Picks
- 9/17: Week 2 Survivor Recap
- FYI: Survivor Strategy Articles
- FYI: About Our Survivor Pool Advice
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Survivor Strategy Articles
If you’re serious about winning more survivor pools, it pays to learn the strategies that give you a long-term edge.
You can start with our free survivor strategy articles, which explain a number of the concepts we apply to our customized Survivor pick recommendations:
- Don’t just try to survive the week
- The “Holy Trinity” of survivor strategy
- Expected Value: What it is, why it matters
- Future value: What it is, why it matters
- Why pool size should influence your picks
- How Survivor pool rules affect strategy
- Playing multiple entries in survivor pools
We also have written a survivor strategy e-book that goes more in-depth into many key topics for Survivor, which you can download for free here.
About Our Survivor Pool Advice
We break down the pros and cons of various Survivor pick options in this column, but none of our advice is ever absolute.
Why can’t we tell you the “best” survivor pick of the week? Because there is no universal “best pick” across the board for NFL survivor pools.
The best weekly pick for your pool depends on various factors, including the number of entries still alive and your pool’s rules. For example:
- Bigger survivor pools reward more risk-taking.
The more entries in your pool, the lower the chance you have to win it. These types of pools typically go deeper into the season, require more picks, and necessitate digging deeper into the teams by taking on more risk. As a result, your best strategy for bigger pools generally demands more of a focus on avoiding the most popular picks to try to benefit when the popular crowd pick falls flat. - Non-standard rules change optimal pick strategy.
If your pool requires double picks late in the season, or if it’s a strike pool (i.e., your first incorrect pick doesn’t eliminate you), you don’t want to use the exact same pick strategy that you’d use in a standard-rules survivor pool. Those rule variations significantly influence decision factors, such as whether you should be more inclined to save a good team for later vs. use it now.
And then there’s all this stuff:
- What if you’ve already picked the team (or teams) that some article says is the best pick this week?
- What if the point spread for that “best pick” has gotten several points worse since the article was published?
- How should you spread your picks across multiple teams if you’re playing more than one entry?
Technology to the rescue
We believe we’re the only site with algorithms that evaluate all key strategy factors in survivor pools. We provide customized Survivor pick recommendations that are updated multiple times a day.
The result? Since 2017, our subscribers have reported over $6.0 million in survivor pool winnings using our data-driven picks and tools.
If you want to see all the picks we recommend for your pool, use our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Why we write this column
We know our subscribers want to understand the reasoning behind picks, especially when they go against the grain. This weekly article gives us a chance to explain the “why” behind our approach. It also allows us to detail unique situations as they arise.
This column can also help educate our readers about Survivor pool strategy. We highlight tactics proven to result in more survivor pool wins over the long term and point out common pitfalls to avoid.
We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you to check out more of our survivor pool strategy articles.
Wednesday 9/18
Future Value and Week 3
Week 3 is an interesting one from a game theory perspective for many reasons. We have three popular picks at the top with low future value, and all provide the opportunity to save future value relative to other choices. However, because none of those three is one of the two biggest favorites of the week, we get EV that ranges from fairly poor for a survivor pick (Raiders, with the seventh-highest win odds but higher popularity) to average/acceptable in the case of Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
The other choices, like Cincinnati, New York Jets, San Francisco, and Seattle, tend to be higher EV options thanks to the combo of lower popularity and relative win odds, but do so at the expense of using more future value, to varying degrees. San Francisco is the most extreme case of this, with both the highest EV but also highest future value.
We don’t save teams for the future just for its own sake. The goal is to maximize value and play teams when they are relatively higher value. If those opportunities present them now rather than later, then being dogmatic on “saving teams” is counter-productive.
We thought it would be a fun exercise, as we weigh which teams are the best plays, to look at some of our Optimal Path tool results, to see what comes up.
Optimal Path Changes Based on Future Value Used
These Optimal Paths show the results of using our Optimal Path Tool, which returns one pick per week through the entire season, and shows the estimated cumulative survival rate through Week 18 of following both the Optimal EV path (which accounts for expected pick rates and popularity as well) and Optimal Survival, which just maximizes win odds regardless of popularity.
We included common Week 1 and 2 surviving picks, as well as a couple of extreme “future value” examples: a Minnesota-Washington combo that got through while using basically none, and a 49ers-Chiefs combo that used the estimated two most valuable teams already.
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Optimal EV | Optimal Survive | FV Used |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | WAS | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.1 |
| SEA | LAC | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2 |
| SEA | HOU | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6 |
| DET | LAC | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8 |
| DET | HOU | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2 |
| BUF | LAC | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3 |
| BUF | HOU | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.7 |
| NO | LAC | 1.1% | 1.2% | 3.1 |
| NO | HOU | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.5 |
| SF | KC | 0.9% | 1.0% | 6.4 |
One thing that stands out here is that having used no future value so far isn’t that much of an advantage over using some, at least on being able to build an Optimal Path with similar survival odds. Entries that have used combos like Seattle-Houston/Chargers, or Detroit-Houston/Chargers, have similar odds to survive while trying to maximize EV.
It isn’t until we get to the highest EV teams (and the Saints have moved near the top as a result of their start) that we see a noticeable impact on survival rates.
Now, obviously, this will continue to accumulate over time. Teams that have used relative less should have an edge, and also maintain more optionality and flexibility later. And the saving of future value matters more for pools where additional picks are required.
What Does This Have to Do With Week 3?
So, why did we do this little exercise? Hopefully, it helps explain why we may be not using low future value teams this week in a lot of cases. If we are getting high value options, and can build paths that still give us a good chance to survive the season. Our paths do not generally require using Las Vegas, a team that is drawing over 20% popularity.
A team like San Francisco is showing up on some of the Optimal Paths this week, depending on what other teams were used, despite having high future value. Seattle, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are other examples that show up. Cleveland has low future value and is the preferred option among the lower future value teams. (Tampa Bay does tend to show up in Week 17 vs. Carolina.)
The Jets are a team that typically shows up in Week 4. But if you are playing a larger portfolio of entries, you probably do not want to have all your picks on the Jets next week. This is also a reasonable week to play them on some entries when they have a really good EV.
Most of these teams have future value, but using that value isn’t a significant drawback this week, especially when you can go against two popular teams that aren’t any safer than several other options.
Tuesday 9/17
Five Most Popular Week 3 Survivor Picks
Here are the most popular teams early on for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
- Las Vegas Raiders (23%) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21%) vs. Denver Broncos
- Cleveland Browns (13%) vs. New York Giants
- Cincinnati Bengals (12%) vs. Washington Commanders (MON)
- New York Jets (9%) vs. New England Patriots (THU)
Now, let’s break down these teams:
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were the most popular team to pick against in survivor pools last week, and now are the most popular pick this week. The reason? They are playing a Panthers team that has lost by an average of 30 points in the first two games. But beware, the Panthers did shift QBs (benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton), and the lines are also shifting as a result.
Las Vegas is also popular because they pretty much have no future value, but the relatively higher popularity vs. other options means a lower EV, considering they are the seventh-largest favorite of the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Continuing the bizarro Week 3 theme, the Bucs were the second-biggest underdog last week, after the Raiders, and are now the second-most popular pick in survivor pools, going against the Raiders.
They are going against a Denver team that is off to a 0-2 start and 30th in scoring so far. Tampa Bay has some future value, but it’s not a lot, and it’s concentrated late in the year. That explains why they have shot up to the second-most popular option. The EV is solid but not spectacular, as they are third in market win odds for the week.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns get the Giants at home after winning on the road as an underdog last week (sensing a theme?). In a different week, Cleveland might be a lot more popular as the low-future value picks against a weak opponent. However, with the Raiders and Bucs also drawing teams at the bottom of the league at home, their popularity is not too high. Cleveland has a solid EV, and win odds just above Las Vegas for this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were also an underdog last week, losing by a point at Kansas City. Cincinnati should be in desperation mode, as they sit at 0-2 entering their Monday Night matchup.
The Bengals have the highest market win odds, at 77%, and given that they are a little less popular than the three teams in front of them with lower win odds, they have a pretty good EV.
The tradeoff is that Cincinnati has more future value than the other popular options this week.
New York Jets
The Jets kick off Week 3 on Thursday night against the rival Patriots. New York has a good EV because the win odds are similar to the three most popular options this week, at lower popularity.
The Jets have higher future value than the three most popular picks but less than Cincinnati. A big part of the Jets’ future value is realized immediately next week, when they face Denver at home, in what we project as their highest win odds spot of the year.
Of course, these are just five teams you could consider, so check your customized pick recommendations for your survivor pools.
Tuesday 9/17
Week 2 Survivor Recap
Well, that happened. In week 2, underdogs won over half of all games outright, and the two biggest favorites lost. Teams favored by 5 or more went 2-4.
Here is a full summary of the most popular picks for Week 2 and the results: