NFL Survivor Week 1 Research: Looking at QB and Coach Factors

We do a deep dive into how teams have performed in Week 1 based on whether they have a new or returning coach and QB.

Will Levis taking over full-time in Tennessee, with new head coach Brian Callahan, is one of the risky underdogs for Week 1 (David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Week 1 of survivor pools can be both exhilarating and frightening. The spreads tend to be lower than later in the year because we’re less confident about how good or bad teams are.

Over the last decade, Week 1 has averaged only 2.9 games with a spread of seven points or more, compared to 4.5 per week throughout the season.

In 2024, it’s even tougher. Currently, only one game—Cincinnati against New England—has a spread that large.

We decided to examine some Week 1 factors related to coaches and starting quarterbacks to see if we could glean anything from these challenging matchups.

The short version of our research is this: The most predictable Week 1 games are those where both teams have the same coach and starting quarterback as the previous year, with the quarterback having played most or all of the season.

This makes sense, as these two positions are key drivers of value in the NFL. When we’ve already seen a team perform with the same coach and quarterback combo, projecting outcomes feels a bit more reliable.

As we introduce changes at coach, quarterback, or both—whether for the favored team or the underdog—the outcomes become more volatile, with results often deviating more from the game spread.

In survivor pools, especially when picking larger favorites, we typically prefer less volatility and uncertainty since more uncertainty slightly increases the odds of an upset.

To see all the specifics and data that drive those observations, you can read on below: