Circa Survivor Week 2 Breakdown (2024)

We breakdown Week 2 of Circa Survivor, focusing on pick popularity, future value and pick strategy.

The Chargers will be very popular in Circa this week (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

The Circa Survivor contest kicked off with a bang last week, drawing over 14,000 entries—a significant increase from last year’s field of more than 9,000. There was at least one entry on 31 of the 32 teams in the league. Cincinnati, the most popular pick, suffered an early exit on Sunday, rewarding those who avoided the top choice right from the start. As we turn to Circa Survivor Week 2, there are 8,702 entries remaining.

Week 2 Update: Selection Counts

Week 2 Selection Counts – Top Five Teams, Circa Survivor (released Saturday, Sep. 14)

Ravens: 26.5%
Texans: 23.6%
Chargers: 14.7%
Lions: 9.9%
Eagles: 9.0%

In this article, we’ll estimate the most popular picks for this week. For subscribers, we also offer a contest-specific Future Value estimate, along with an analysis of each team, as well as insights on the holiday weeks and strategies for playing this week.

Week 2 Estimated Popularity

Here are our pick popularity estimates for Circa Survivor Week 2. We’ve also included the current public pick rates across all pools and an EV estimate based on projected pick rates and market odds. Note that the EV calculation does not account for future value.

Team	Circa Projected	Public	EV at Projected
LAC	36%	21%	0.88
BAL	25%	32%	1.10
HOU	10%	9%	1.10
PHI	9%	8%	1.10
DET	5%	5%	1.18
NYJ	3%	3%	1.03
WAS	2%	3%	0.84
JAC	2%	2%	0.92
IND	2%	2%	0.89
DAL	2%	5%	1.12

We are projecting the Chargers to be the most popular pick in Circa, and their popularity could be quite high. They stand out as the one clear “future value savings” pick in a week when many other teams hold holiday relevancy.

Baltimore is also expected to remain popular, though not quite at the same level as the public pick rates across all pools due to their Christmas game.

We expect pick rates to align closely with the public rates for most other teams, but we anticipate Dallas will be selected less frequently due to their Thanksgiving game. The Thanksgiving factor will also likely keep Detroit’s popularity in check, even though they currently hold the second-best win odds.

You can also read our preseason article on projecting Circa pick popularity, which was part of the basis for how we are projecting this week with high holiday team impact.

Future Value, After Week 2

Now, let’s look at the Future Value estimates for Circa for the weeks ahead. This Future Value estimate is specific to the Circa contest and looks at how many weeks each team is a survivor option and how likely they are to rank highly in relative win odds for that week.