How to Make the Best Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks

Three strategy tips to optimize your Women's NCAA Basketball Bracket Picks and gain an edge in your pool.

The Women’s NCAA Basketball Tournament continues to grow in popularity, bringing more excitement—and more bracket-busting moments—to March Madness. As interest in Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks rises, knowing how to strategically fill out your bracket is more important than ever.

While some tips will be similar to the Men’s NCAA Bracket Strategy article, there are key differences to consider when making Women’s NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks. This primer covers the essentials, plus three key tips to help you build a smarter bracket and maximize the chances of winning your pool.

Tip #1: Avoid Picking Too Many Upsets

Picking upsets is one of the most tempting (and dangerous) habits in Women’s bracket strategy. The allure of nailing a major Cinderella story—like No. 10 Creighton’s run to the Elite Eight in 2022—is strong, but the reality is that most lower seeds don’t make deep runs.

How Many Upsets Should You Pick in a Women’s Bracket?

Unlike the men’s tournament, where chaos is expected, the women’s bracket has historically been more predictable. No. 1 seeds win at a much higher rate, and top teams advance more often than in the men’s tournament.

You can see some historical data on advancement rates and who has reached the Final Four in this article.

• First-round upsets happen, but not as often as in the men’s game. Since 2010, over 75% of No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 seeds have advanced past the first round.
• Final Four consistency: Since 2010, at least two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four in all but one tournament. In 2023, all four No. 1 seeds made the Elite Eight, showing how top teams typically dominate.
• Picking every trendy upset is a bad idea. Many casual players get excited about No. 11 or No. 12 seeds making runs, but these teams rarely make the Final Four. It’s uncommon for teams outside the top four seed lines to go that far in the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

Tip #2: Balance Value & Pick Popularity

Winning a bracket pool isn’t just about picking winners—it’s about picking teams that give you an edge over your competition. That’s where understanding value comes in. You cannot optimize your bracket strategy if you blindly pick upsets. Missing out on points that other entries get because you just wanted to avoid some popular picks can be a killer. You have to balance risk and value.

What Is a Value Pick?

A value pick is one where a team has a better chance of advancing than the public believes (and is picking them to do so). This often happens when casual players overrate big-name programs, underestimate under-the-radar teams, or go out of their way to choose teams (for whatever reason).

The thing about value picks is that the same team can appear “overvalued” to advance early in a pool but then present an undervalued opportunity in the final few rounds when most of your bracket points are earned.

For example, in 2023 and 2024:

• LSU (No. 3 seed) was underpicked by the public for the Final Four but had strong underlying metrics, leading them to a national title.
• No. 2 Iowa wasn’t the most picked team in its region in 2023, but it had a dominant star in Caitlin Clark and good odds to advance, making it a strong value play.
• No. 3 Connecticut was seeded lower than their metrics because they lost a few key games early but presented substantial value on deeper runs in 2024.

Pick Popularity Matters

• If you pick the same champion as 50% of your pool, your odds of winning are lower.
• If a high-seeded team is underrated in public brackets but has a real shot, that’s a smart contrarian pick.
• Don’t avoid a popular pick just to be different—only fade them if there’s strong data supporting them.

Tip 3: Know Your Pool Size & Rules

Another critical aspect of your Women’s Bracket Strategy is how much you emphasize risk versus reward, based on the rules and the pool size you are playing.

Small Pools (10-25 People)

• Play it safe: Stick with higher seeds and fewer upsets.
• Winning comes down to avoiding big mistakes and hitting key contenders to win rather than hitting rare picks.
• Picking the right champion and another top team to advance deeply can be enough.

Mid-Sized Pools (25-100 People)

• Balance risk and reward. Picking a popular champion is fine, but you may need to differentiate yourself in earlier rounds.
• Take a few calculated risks. Find one or two undervalued teams to make deeper runs.
• Watch for public bias. The public often overvalues big-name schools with weak résumés.

Large Pools (100+ People)

• Be willing to go more contrarian: If you pick the most popular champion, you’ll likely need to be more contrarian (and correct) elsewhere.
• Taking on reasonable added risk makes sense. A dark-horse Final Four pick with reasonable advancement odds can separate you from the pack.
• Target under-the-radar teams. If a No. 2 or 3 seed is undervalued, they can be a strong title pick.

Optimize Your Women’s NCAA Basketball Bracket Picks

Building a solid NCAA Women’s Basketball Bracket isn’t just about picking favorites or guessing upsets—it’s about making smart, data-driven decisions based on pool size, scoring rules, and advancement odds.

PoolGenius has the tools to optimize your Women’s (or Men’s) bracket, helping you identify value opportunities, overrated teams, and the smartest picks based on real probabilities. By entering your pool size and scoring system, our optimizer highlights who to target, who to fade, and where you can gain an edge in your tournament.

Get Your Women’s NCAA Basketball Bracket Optimizer >>