NCAA Women’s Tournament: History, Trends & Biggest Upsets

We go through some historical data on seeds to reach the Final Four, Champions, and upsets in the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament.

The NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament began in 1982 under NCAA supervision, and over 41 tournaments, clear historical trends have emerged. For example, you may (or may not) be surprised to learn that most National Champions have been 1-seeds. But what about the lowest seed to ever reach the Final Four? Or the biggest upsets in tournament history? Let’s break it all down below.

NCAA Women’s Basketball Champions: By Seed

Of the 41 Women’s Basketball Champions since 1982, a strong majority (32) were 1 seeds. That comes out to 78% of winners.

Let’s break down the full numbers:

• 1 seed: 32 of 41 champs (78%)
• 2 seed: 6 of 41 champs (15%)
• 3 seed: 3 of 41 champs (7%)

That’s the entire list, meaning no team seeded 4 or lower has won the Women’s National Championship.

Taking that further, nine of the 10 champions were a 1 seed in the last decade.

To see which teams we favor to win the upcoming title, check out our NCAA Women’s Basketball Brackets for 2025, where we provide customized pick advice for your pool.

NCAA Women’s Final Four Participants

Here is a table showing the seed number for all Final Four participants going back to 1982.

Seed	Champs	Runner Up	Final 4	Total
1	32	21	39	92
2	6	9	21	36
3	3	6	8	17
4	0	4	7	11
5	0	1	1	2
6	0	0	2	2
7	0	0	2	2
8	0	0	1	1
9	0	0	1	1

Here’s what stood out to us:

• 56% of all 1 seeds have reached the Final Four.
• 78% of all Final Four participants have been a 1 or 2 seed.
• No team lower than a 9 seed has reached the Final Four.
• Eight teams have reached the Final Four as a 5 seed or worse.

Biggest First Round Upsets

The Women’s NCAA Basketball Tournament expanded to a 64-team field in 1993 from a 48-team field the previous year.

Here are the lowest seed numbers to win a Women’s Basketball NCAA Tournament game.

Year	Seed	Team	Opponent
1998	16	Harvard	Stanford
2021	13	Wright State	Arkansas
2012	13	Marist	Georgia
2007	13	Marist	Ohio State
2005	13	Liberty	Penn State
2004	13	Middle Tennessee	North Carolina
2000	13	Rice	UC-Santa Barbara
1994	13	Texas A&M	Florida

There are a few noteworthy takeaways from here:

• No 14 or 15 seed has ever won. These seeds are a cumulative 0-240 in the Women’s NCAA Tournament.
• There has been a 16-seed upset. Harvard, a 16 seed, knocked off No. 1 Stanford in 1998. That’s the only 16-over-1 upset so far.
• 13 seeds have been (marginally) more successful. They have won seven first-round games against No. 4 seeds, with three eventually reaching the Sweet 16.

Women’s NCAA Tournament Advancement Rates: Last 10

Finally, here are the advancement percentages by seed for the last 10 tournaments.

Seed	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite Eight	Final Four	Champ Game	Champion
1	100.0%	95.0%	82.5%	62.5%	35.0%	22.5%
2	100.0%	77.5%	52.5%	20.0%	7.5%	0.0%
3	100.0%	67.5%	30.0%	10.0%	5.0%	2.5%
4	97.5%	57.5%	12.5%	5.0%	2.5%	0.0%
5	75.0%	37.5%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	65.0%	22.5%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	65.0%	15.0%	7.5%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%
8	52.5%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	47.5%	2.5%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	35.0%	7.5%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	35.0%	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	25.0%	5.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

We’ll release our complete advancement odds predictions for the 2025 Women’s NCAA Basketball Tournament as part of our NCAA Women’s Basketball Brackets, which will be available shortly after the field is set.

Don’t miss your chance to get the edge over your competition!