Week 4 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2026)

Sunday 10/4

Sunday AM Pick Overview

Here’s your Sunday AM Pick Overview, and some teams we have strong positions on in either game winner or spread pools.

This week brings six games with a favorite under 60% win odds — San Francisco (57.4%) over Denver, New Orleans (54.2%) over Atlanta, Pittsburgh (58.8%) over Cleveland, Houston (59.2%) over Dallas, Cincinnati (57.0%) over Jacksonville, and Arizona (55.8%) over the Giants.

That’s several high-leverage close calls again this week. We also have one season-long exception: our models favor Atlanta outright on the road at New Orleans (50.7%), despite New Orleans being the slight Vegas favorite (54.2%).

Weekly Game Winner

The underdogs that move up the most in the weekly picks format are:

• Denver 90.6%
• Jacksonville 80.5%
• NY Jets 79.5%
• Cleveland 73.0% (won on Thursday)

So this week we again see four outright upsets appearing in over half of weekly pick top options.

Spread Pools

In spread pools, we see the following as the most highly recommended across all pools. Just remember, individual results may vary depending on things like contest line.

and here is the same for weekly ATS, where popularity impacts more (those that did not appear on the season-long list are bolded):

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Thursday 10/1

Week 4 Value Picks

Week 4 brings a mix of real leverage spots and the model doubling down on a couple of trusted favorites. Check the Data Grid through the week for line moves and shifting pick rates.

1. Atlanta Falcons (at New Orleans) — Monday Night
Spread: +2.5 | Win Odds: 42.7% (Vegas) / 48.4% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 21.4%
This is the week’s biggest story: Atlanta rolled in its most recent game with Michael Penix back under center, replacing a Cooper Rush stint that had been rough. New Orleans, meanwhile, followed up its own upset win over Baltimore by losing at home to Las Vegas. Despite that, the public still hasn’t caught up to how much better Atlanta looks with Penix in — likely residual hesitation from how shaky the Falcons’ offense looked earlier this season. With barely one in five entries on Atlanta and the model liking them close to a true coin flip, this is the largest model-vs-public gap on the board.

2. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Washington) — London
Spread: -3.5 | Win Odds: 63.9% (Vegas) / 64.3% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 58.9%
Playing in London adds a layer of uncertainty to any pick, but the underlying numbers favor Indianapolis more than the public realizes. Washington’s win last week came despite being outgained by 179 yards and winning the turnover battle by three — just 258 total yards of offense in their first game without Jayden Daniels (elbow). Indianapolis was the inverse: they lost the turnover battle, but still found a way to win while holding Houston’s offense in check. Indianapolis is a rare value favorite where the public is underpicking them relative to the odds, and the public hasn’t fully bought in.

3. New York Jets (at Chicago)
Spread: +3.5 | Win Odds: 38.2% (Vegas) / 39.4% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 10.0%
The widest model-vs-public gap on the entire board. Chicago just pulled off a win in prime time with third-string quarterback Case Keenum under center, and that kind of result tends to juice public confidence regardless of who’s playing quarterback the following week. The Jets, meanwhile, have been a tough sell to the public all season, and this week they’re dealing with real offensive injuries of their own — RB Breece Hall is out, and the receiving corps isn’t fully healthy either. Worth watching how Chicago’s offense performs in the favorite’s role again, with Case Keenum expected to still start for the injured Caleb Williams.

4. Houston Texans (vs. Dallas)
Spread: -3.0 | Win Odds: 59.7% (Vegas) / 59.7% (PG) | Pick Popularity: 54.7%
Houston is 0-3, but not in a way that should inspire much public confidence fading them — they’ve been in every game, with a real chance to win in two of the three. Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off a trip to Rio de Janeiro to play Baltimore, the NFL’s first-ever game in Brazil, and nobody really knows what the travel toll looks like on the other side of that. The model has stayed with Houston here even as its record says otherwise, and the public hasn’t fully piled onto the favorite yet, making this one closer to a coin flip.

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Tuesday 9/29

Week 4 Early Matchups Overview

Here’s how Week 4 is shaping up as we start the week on Tuesday.

Compared with last week, the biggest difference is at the top. We had six favorites of 6.5 points or more in Week 3. This week, there are only four, and only three laying a touchdown or more. Baltimore and Minnesota stand well above the rest of the slate as the only double-digit favorites.

Big Favorites (4)

• Baltimore (-11.5) vs. Tennessee
• Minnesota (-10.5) vs. Miami
• Seattle (-7) vs. LA Chargers
• Buffalo (-6.5) vs. New England

Baltimore is the biggest favorite of the week against Tennessee, but the Ravens have some injury issues of their own after their win over Dallas in Brazil. Baltimore lost centers Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic to long-term injuries, leaving rookie guard Vega Ioane as the likely answer at center this week. Ronnie Stanley is also dealing with a toe injury.

Minnesota gets its turn against Miami after the Dolphins fell to 0-3 with a 24-10 loss to Kansas City. Miami is also without De’Von Achane, while Justin Jefferson’s ankle injury is something to watch for the Vikings. Early reports indicate Jefferson avoided a major injury and could play this week.

Then there’s a noticeable drop to Seattle at -7 against the Chargers. Los Angeles is 0-3 after losing in Buffalo, though that game was a little stranger than the final score might suggest: the Chargers forced five Buffalo turnovers and still lost 24-16. Seattle is also hoping to get safety Julian Love back after he missed last week’s game with a calf injury.

The tier closes with Buffalo, which is 3-0 but coming off that bizarre five-turnover win over the Chargers. Now the Bills get a divisional matchup with New England, who have been struggling on offense through the first three weeks, with Drake Maye having thrown six interceptions.

Moderate Favorites (5)

• Kansas City (-4.5) at Las Vegas
• Green Bay (-4) at Tampa Bay
• Detroit (-3.5) at Carolina
• Chicago (-3.5) vs. NY Jets
• Indianapolis (-3.5) vs. Washington (London)

The most interesting game in this group may be Kansas City at Las Vegas. It’s not often that a 3-0 Chiefs team goes into a matchup with the Raiders and the records are identical. Las Vegas has already matched its entire 2025 win total, while Kansas City heads into its bye after this game.

Green Bay is a road favorite at Tampa Bay despite falling to 1-2 with Thursday night’s loss to Atlanta. That’s because the Bucs are 0-3 and now have a much bigger problem: Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand against Minnesota and is expected to miss multiple weeks. Rookie Jalon Daniels is expected to start in his place.

Detroit is another road favorite, heading to Carolina for Sunday Night Football. The Panthers could be extremely thin in the secondary after Jaycee Horn suffered a quad injury and Mike Jackson left last week’s game with a groin injury.

Chicago comes off the big win over Philadelphia on Monday Night Football with Case Keenum at QB, and will likely be without Caleb Williams for another week, as they face the plucky New York Jets.

Finally, Indianapolis and Washington meet on a neutral field in London. One key variable there is Jayden Daniels, who missed last week but is making the trip and is expected to practice in some capacity this week.

Short Favorites (7)

• LA Rams (-3) at Philadelphia
• San Francisco (-3) vs. Denver
• Houston (-2.5) vs. Dallas
• Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Cleveland
• Arizona (-1.5) at NY Giants
• New Orleans (-2.5) vs. Atlanta
• Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville

The bottom half of this week’s slate is packed with close games. Seven favorites are laying 3 points or less, and several of them could easily move across key numbers as injury news comes in.

The Rams head to Philadelphia after losing in Denver, and they may again be without Puka Nacua, who continues to deal with hip and groin injuries.

San Francisco remains undefeated but is only laying a field goal at home against Denver.

We also get a pair of AFC North and NFC South divisional games near pick’em territory to bookend the week. Pittsburgh travels to Cleveland on Thursday night, while New Orleans hosts Atlanta on Monday night. The Saints-Falcons rivalry has been extremely competitive recently, adding another near-pick’em divisional game to the slate.

The larger theme is pretty clear: after Baltimore and Minnesota, there aren’t many teams the market views as substantially better than their opponent. That should make Week 4 less about navigating a long list of obvious favorites and more about finding the right side of a large group of competitive games.

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Tuesday 9/29

Week 3 Results

Week 3 was a strong one overall for our recommendations, with the weekly approach delivering the biggest gains. Our ATS picks beat the public by a healthy margin, while several key upset calls helped Top Option have an excellent week in Game Winner pools.

In Game Winner pools, our weekly Top Option picks averaged 9.9 wins, well ahead of the public’s 8.2. Max Profit, which takes a more conservative season-long approach, averaged only 7.1 wins. Underdogs performed well overall in Week 3, winning half the games, with the shortest underdogs winning more often than not. In ATS pools, both strategies performed well: Max Profit averaged 8.9 wins to the public’s 7.4, while Top Option led the way again at 9.3.

The big story in Game Winner was the number of upsets. This was exactly the type of week where a weekly strategy’s willingness to take some calculated chances against popular favorites can pay off. Top Option capitalized on several of them, while Max Profit generally stayed with the favorites. That’s intentional: in a season-long pool, we’re typically more conservative about taking upset risks because one bad week can leave you chasing the field for the rest of the season.

Where we were right:

• Cleveland — 95.8% Max Profit and 99.2% Top Option on the Browns ATS to just 25% public. Cleveland covered.
• Atlanta — 98.4% Max Profit and 99.8% Top Option on Atlanta ATS to only 26% public. The Falcons covered, giving us one of our largest ATS leverage wins of the week.
• Pittsburgh — 99.4% Max Profit on the Steelers ATS to just 25% public, and Pittsburgh covered. Top Option also went 81.9% Pittsburgh to win outright compared with only 12% of the public, another big weekly-pool hit.
• Arizona — a big rebound after last week’s miss. We were 99.9% Arizona ATS compared with only 25% public, and the Cardinals covered.
• Las Vegas — 86.1% Max Profit and 99.8% Top Option on the Raiders ATS to 35% public, and Las Vegas covered. Top Option also went 63.4% Raiders to win outright against just 22% public, and the upset came through.
• Denver — the weekly Game Winner strategy took another successful upset shot here. Top Option was 74.4% Denver to win outright compared with 45.7% public, while Max Profit stayed 100% on the Rams. Denver won.

Where we missed:

• LA Chargers — 94.7% Max Profit and 99.2% Top Option on the Chargers ATS to just 25% public, but Buffalo covered.
• NY Jets — 99.8% Max Profit and 99.9% Top Option on the Jets ATS compared with 28% public. Detroit covered instead.
• Tampa Bay — 99.6% Max Profit and 99.8% Top Option on Tampa Bay ATS compared with 46% public, but Minnesota covered and won outright.
• Tennessee — 99.1% Max Profit and 96.2% Top Option on the Titans ATS compared with 57% public. The Giants covered.
• Miami — 81.4% Max Profit and 99.0% Top Option on Miami ATS to just 26% public, but Kansas City covered.

The takeaway: Week 3 showed the potential payoff from taking selective upset risks in weekly pools. Top Option hit several of those spots and finished comfortably ahead of the public in Game Winner, while the more conservative Max Profit strategy was hurt by the same run of upsets. On the ATS side, the story was simpler: our recommendations had another strong week, with Max Profit beating the public by 1.5 wins and Top Option by 1.9.

Season Long Summary (through three weeks)

Game Winner (Max Profit): 30.8 total wins vs. public’s 28.1, a 2.7-win edge.

ATS (Max Profit): 25.8 total wins vs. public’s 22.5 — a 3.5 win edge.

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FYI

Important Notes About Picks We Highlight

A few things to keep in mind about the picks we highlight in this article:

• Not all picks are right for all pools. Strategy depends on your pool’s size, format, and prize structure. A smart pick in a large weekly pool might be a poor choice in a small season-long contest.

• We focus on strategy and value, not just who will win. The goal is to beat your opponents, not just pick winners. That often means identifying low-popularity favorites or fading trendy upset picks with low upside.

• Data can shift before game time. We publish sections based on the most current win odds and pick popularity at the time, but those numbers can change — especially with injury news or line movement.

We’ll update this post if any major shifts occur. For the most up-to-date recommendations tailored to your pool, check out the Football Pick’em Picks product. It updates multiple times daily and adjusts for your specific rules and opponents.

You can see the latest information in the Data Grid.

After you generate customized picks for your pool, you can also update those pick recommendations whenever you want via the My Pool Picks screen. The updated picks will incorporate the most recent data we have.

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FYI

About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

Our Football Pick’em Picks product doesn’t give one-size-fits-all advice — because the best pick depends on your pool.

Things like pool size, scoring rules, weekly vs. season-long prizes, and even your current standing all impact pick strategy. That’s why we built technology to analyze your specific pool settings and generate customized pick recommendations.

As far as we know, we’re still the only site offering fully strategy-driven picks tailored to your format and goals.

The result? 71% of our subscribers win a prize (season-long or weekly) in a football pick’em contest each year.

If you haven’t set up your pool in the product yet, you can do that in minutes — just enter your rules, and we’ll handle the rest.

While this article highlights key strategy and pick dynamics, your actual best picks may differ — and that’s by design. To get your edge, use the product.

We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you also to check out more of our football pick’em strategy articles.