Past Performance

Data we started collecting in 2014 shows that our subscribers

Won bowl pick’em pools 79% more often than expected

That’s the difference between winning a 25-person pool once every 14 years, instead of the baseline expectation of once every 25 years.

The performance data tables below reflect customer reported results from 3,416 real-world pools.

Pool Win Rates By Season

Year to year, how often have our subscribers won a prize in each individual bowl pick’em pool they entered, compared to expectations?

Season	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
2014	10%	12%	1.2x
2015	11%	26%	2.3x
2016	11%	38%	3.6x
2017	10%	9%	0.9x
2018	10%	10%	1.0x
2019	9%	20%	2.1x
2020	11%	28%	2.5x
2021	10%	10%	1.1x
2022	9%	19%	2.0x
2023	10%	18%	1.8x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

On average, our subscribers have won a prize in 18% of pools they have entered. That win rate is 79% higher than the expectation of 10%.

Based on our customer surveys, every year, an average of

25% of our subscribers win at least one bowl pick’em pool prize

Winning a pool is tough and our picks certainly don’t win every year. But if you’re willing to trust the process, the longer term rewards have been impressive.

Subscriber Win Rates By Season

Year to year, how often have our subscribers won at least one bowl pick’em pool prize across all pools they entered, compared to expectations?

Season	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
2014	14%	17%	1.2x
2015	16%	33%	2.0x
2016	16%	52%	3.4x
2017	15%	12%	0.8x
2018	16%	14%	0.9x
2019	14%	28%	2.0x
2020	13%	31%	2.3x
2021	14%	14%	1.0x
2022	14%	28%	2.0x
2023	16%	27%	1.7x
Total	15%	25%	1.7x

On average, 25% of our subscribers have won at least one bowl pick’em pool prize each year. That win rate is 67% higher than the expectation of 15%.

Drilling down into the details of survey responses, we find that

Reported edges hold across a variety of pool types and sizes

It's not just a lucky performance in one type of pool driving the overall success rates.

Pool Win Rates By Type Of Pool

Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in bowl pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the specific rules of each pool?

Pick Type	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
Game Winner Picks	10%	20%	1.9x
Spread Picks	10%	15%	1.5x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

Our subscribers have won prizes at a better-than-expected rate regardless of whether they had to make picks stright up or against the spread.

Scoring Type	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
Fixed Points	9%	16%	1.7x
Confidence Points	11%	20%	1.9x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

Our subscribers have been successful both in pools that use confidence points and in those with fixed point values.

Game Slate Type	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
Fixed Game Slate	10%	18%	1.8x
User Selects Games	9%	14%	1.5x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

Some pools allow entrants to select which games they'll make picks on. Our subscribers have performed well in these pools, as well as in pools where you pick every game from a defined slate.

As you can see, our bowl pick’em picks have delivered an edge in all types of supported pools. Note that we support combinations of these types, but if we break it down any further, the sample size gets too small to be meaningful.

Pool Win Rates By Pool Size

Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in bowl pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down the size of each pool?

Pool Size	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
25 or fewer	15%	28%	1.8x
26 to 50	11%	20%	1.8x
51 to 100	8%	15%	1.9x
101 to 250	6%	10%	1.7x
251 to 1,000	5%	6%	1.2x
1,001 to 9,999	2%	7%	4.4x
10,000 or more	0%	1%	4.5x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

As expected, the bigger the pool, the harder it is to win. Still, our picks have outperformed expectations by a wide margin in larger pools.

Pool Win Rates By Number Of Sheets Entered

Since 2014, how often have our subscribers won a prize in bowl pick’em pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the number of sheets entered in each pool?

Number Of User Entries	Expected To Win A Prize	Won A Prize	Win Rate vs. Expectation
1	8%	17%	2.0x
2	13%	20%	1.5x
3 or more	15%	23%	1.6x
Total	10%	18%	1.8x

So far, our biggest edge vs. expectations has been a single-entry strategy. That makes sense, since the first set of picks we recommend is the one with the best chance to win. Second and third entries make some different picks than the first entry, sacrificing some edge in order to hedge against the first set of picks.

You might notice that in the table above, entering 2 or 3 pick sets seems to win at a lower rate than entering just 1. That's actually just a quirk of the data, because subscribers playing more than one entry in a pool tended to be playing in larger pools. You can see this by looking at the Expected Win % column. Subscribers entering 3 pick sets don't have expected win rates 3 times higher than subscribers entering only 1 pick set, because their pools are larger.

How We Calculate Prize Win Expectations

To calculate how often one should expect to win a prize in a bowl pick’em pool, we make the assumption that all players in the pool are equally skilled.

In real life that's not exactly true; usually pools are filled with a mix of more skilled and less skilled pickers. But as long as it's a fairly even mix, this approach serves as a simple and "close enough" benchmark.

We also adjust prize win expectations for the payout structure of each subscriber pool, and for the number of entries a subscriber played in a specific pool.

For example, in a 100-person winner-take-all bowl pick’em pool, baseline expectations would give each player a 1-in-100 (or 1%) chance to win a prize, assuming they each entered once.

However, if the pool awarded prizes to the top three finishers, or if a player played two entries in the pool, then their chance to win a prize would be higher than 1%. We account for all of these factors in the "Expected Win %" numbers in the tables above.