Week 1 Football Pick’em Contest Strategy & Advice (2024)

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season features many close matchups. Here's what you should consider as you make your picks in pick'em contests.

We have launched our Football Pick’em Picks product for 2024, along with our initial pick’em contest strategy and advice column for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.

In these columns, we explore strategies to maximize your edge in NFL and college football pick’em contests. We also provide some of the rationale behind picks potentially recommended by our premium product.

We plan to periodically update this post through Sunday of Week 1, so check back for updates. Here’s what’s available now:

• 9/8: Sunday Week 1 Pick’em Picks Rundown
• 9/6: Eagles-Packers and CFB Value Picks
• 9/5: NFL Season starts today with Chiefs-Ravens
• 9/4: Pick Popularity Shifts
• 9/2: Week 1 Early Value Picks
• 8/29: College Football Opening Thursday and Week 1 Values
• 8/1: Early Spreads and Matchups for Week 1
• FYI: Notes About Picks We Highlight
• FYI: About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

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Sunday 9/8

Sunday Week 1 Pick’em Picks Rundown

The first NFL Sunday is here. Just remember, as exciting as this is, it’s just a small fraction of your season in a pool, making up just over 5% of the season in full-season contests. So whether things go really well or poorly, it’s a long season.

Now, to a summary of the picks. And here is where we tell you that “individual results” vary. We will speak in general terms about which picks are most common, but you may have something different. This is especially true in spread pools and weekly pools. Different contest lines, pool sizes, and other rules tweak the optimal pick in individual situations. So if we say that we are picking a team heavily, and it is not in your pick set, understand there are reasons why.

Game Winner Pools

You should see the favorites in season-long game winner to start Week 1. Cleveland continues to be the one unpopular favorite, and will be pretty important as a leverage play against the public in nearly all pick types.

In weekly contests, these are the most common upset picks on underdogs showing up in the “weekly top option” sets:

• Indianapolis (80%)
• New Orleans (52%)
• Washington (59%)

In addition, the Packers were a common upset pick suggestion on Friday night.

These are the favorites we are most likely to stick with across weekly contests (rounding errors mean that not every single pick is on those 100% numbers, but nearly all):

• Cincinnati (100%)
• Seattle (100%)
• Atlanta (100%)
• Cleveland (100%)
• San Francisco (100%)
• Buffalo (99%)

Based on these numbers, Cleveland and Atlanta are high-leverage favorites for us in both season-long and weekly prize pools.

Spread Pools

In season-long contests, you’ll notice a combination of picks based on our top model plays and key line movements that now present value. The most common spread picks in season-long are:

• Arizona (100%)
• Carolina (100%)
• New England (100%)
• Tennessee (100%)
• Minnesota (98%)
• Jacksonville (95%)
• Atlanta (93%)

In weekly pools, you will see pick popularity add a little more influence, and our most common spread picks in the weekly top options are:

• Arizona (100%)
• Carolina (100%)
• New England (100%)
• Tennessee (100%)
• Washington (100%)
• Jacksonville (99%)
• Denver (98%)
• Indianapolis (97%)

So, we see many of the same teams show up, but Washington, Denver, and Indianapolis also move in as contrarian plays.

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Friday 9/6

Eagles-Packers and CFB Value Picks

We have an NFL game tonight between Philadelphia and Green Bay. Philadelphia is the slight favorite (-2), and you should see the Eagles as the pick in season-long game winner pools. In weekly prize pools, though, you will likely see an upset pick on Green Bay at much lower popularity (27%).

Now, turning to CFB, here are the value picks we are showing for the weekend.

Value Favorites

• Arizona State (-5.5) vs. Mississippi State: 69% win odds, 56% popularity
• Old Dominion (-2) vs. East Carolina: 57% win odds, 47% popularity
• SMU (-11) vs. BYU: 82% win odds, 73% popularity [Friday game]

Value Upsets

• Iowa State (+3) at Iowa: 42% win odds, 9% popularity
• Virginia (+1) at Wake Forest: 48% win odds, 25% popularity
• Syracuse (+3) vs. Georgia Tech: 43% win odds, 19% popularity
• San Jose State (+3.5) at Air Force: 39% win odds, 16% popularity
• Illinois (+5) vs. Kansas: 37% win odds, 9% popularity
• Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Cincinnati: 47% win odds, 32% popularity

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Thursday 9/5

NFL Season Starts Today with Chiefs-Ravens

The 2024 NFL Season is here! Kansas City and Baltimore will face off in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, which the Chiefs won.

Kansas City is a 3-point favorite at home, and we put their win odds at 59%. You should see Kansas City as the game-winner pick in season-long pools.

In weekly prize pools, it will be more mixed. Kansas City is popular at 75% in game-winner formats. There are even higher leverage upset plays this week than Baltimore at 25% picked, so you could see the Ravens as an upset pick in larger pools, but they may not make the cut as one of the upset picks in smaller weekly prize pools.

For spread pools, our models are neutral on the outcome of this primetime matchup of two AFC heavyweights. Kansas City is popular but not overly popular in spread pools, at 63%. Depending on which contest line you are getting, you may get either side of this one since it is hovering right around the key number of 3.

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Wednesday 9/4

Pick Popularity Shifts

You might notice some pick popularity shifts in the Data Grid compared to what you would have seen earlier in the week. This is due to adding in more sources, some of which had questionable data early on that we were waiting on.

There weren’t any major shifts as far as pick strategy, some of the favorites just became a little more popular in game winner pools, and now half of the 16 games have a favorite with greater than 80% popularity.

Cleveland is still the lone favorite being picked by less than half of all public entries. Indianapolis has also moved up a bit in the upset value pick hierarchy with adjustments to Houston’s popularity in that game.

Meanwhile, we now have five ATS favorites with >70% popularity:

• Buffalo (75%)
• Cincinnati (75%)
• Miami (72%)
• Detroit (72%)
• San Francisco (71%)

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Monday 9/2

Week 1 Early Value Picks

Here are some early Week 1 value picks in game-winner-based NFL pick’em contests we are seeing as of Monday morning.

Things will shift through the week, as we get our first player practice participation and injury reports, and as lots of pool participants check in for the first time, but it’s worth keeping an eye on them.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Dallas Cowboys)

Spread: -2.5
Win Odds: 53%
Pick Popularity: 39%

The Cleveland-Dallas game is the only one where the public is disagreeing with the oddsmakers on who should be favored, as 61% of the public is taking the underdog Cowboys to win.

Deshaun Watson did miss time in August due to “general arm soreness” and didn’t suit up for the preseason finale, but is expected to play in Week 1.

We’ll monitor that, as any changes in that outlook could shift the line this week.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Spread: -3
Win Odds: 61%
Pick Popularity: 60%

We have the Arthur Smith Bowl to start the year. Smith, who was fired as head coach in Atlanta after last season, is now the offensive coordinator with the Steelers. Both teams have new quarterbacks as well, with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, and Russell Wilson starting for Pittsburgh.

We show some slight value for Atlanta, particularly compared to other favorites of around a field goal. The seven other teams favored by 3 or 3.5 points all have pick popularity of 75% or higher. That suggests this is the upset pick your opponents are most likely to make in this range, so it is actually sharper to just stick with the favorite and go with your upsets elsewhere.

Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)

Spread: -8.5
Win Odds: 75%
Pick Popularity: 81%

We are highlighting the biggest favorite this week because of the dynamics of 2024 Week 1. There will be plenty of weeks in the future where a team favored by this much will have 95% popularity, but that’s not what we are seeing with the Bengals.

In Week 1 this year, the Bengals are the only team favored by more than a touchdown. There are two other teams (Buffalo and Seattle) favored by 6 and 5.5 points respectively. Then, every other game has a spread of 4 points or fewer.

When eight other Week 1 favorites have pick popularity of at least 70%, just sticking with the biggest favorite at only slightly higher popularity than that group, and hunting for your upsets and differentiation elsewhere, is the way to go.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)

Spread: +2.5
Win Odds: 46%
Pick Popularity: 34%

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles open up in Brazil on Friday night. We get an NFC heavyweight matchup, where the Eagles are the slight favorite, but you are getting a solid value on the Packers as an upset pick in weekly pools.

Green Bay closed last year on a hot streak, winning five of the last seven to make the playoffs, then beating Dallas on the road. Philadelphia went the other way, collapsing down the stretch, dropping from having the NFL’s best record at 10-1 to losing six of seven games, including the Wildcard matchup with Tampa Bay.

We will hope that trend continues with this value upset play.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston Texans)

Spread: +2.5
Win Odds: 45%
Pick Popularity: 34%

The Houston Texans are a popular pick this year coming off their surprise 9-8 playoff appearance with QB C.J. Stroud as a rookie. Now, entering year two, the team has added Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps, and also brought in a big-name veteran in Joe Mixon at running back.

But the Colts get their own first round pick at QB back in Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis has some upset value in weekly contests with the public leaning more heavily to the Texans, as this line has stayed under a field goal.

 

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Thursday 8/29

College Football Opening Thursday and Week 1 Values

We technically had a Week 0 last week in college football, with a handful of games including Florida State vs. Georgia Tech in Ireland. But most of the FBS teams get started this week, including a loaded Thursday night opening schedule.

A lot of these games will feature really big spreads. Let’s go through some of the values we are seeing on some of the more competitive games.

Value Favorites

• SAT: Texas A&M (-3) vs. Notre Dame, 60% win odds, 46% popularity
• SAT: Troy (-9) vs. Nevada, 76% win odds, 71% popularity
• SAT: Miami (-2.5) at Florida, 56% win odds, 55% popularity

Value Upset Picks

• THU: Coastal Carolina (+3) at Jacksonville State, 42% win odds, 39% popularity
• SAT: UNLV (+2.5) at Houston, 45% win odds, 17% popularity
• SAT: Miami (OH) (+3) at Northwestern, 43% win odds, 14% popularity
• SUN: USC (+4.5) vs. LSU, 36% win odds, 14% popularity

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Thursday 8/1

Early Spreads and Matchups for NFL Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL season begins on Thursday, September 5th with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. We do not have reliable public pick data to begin to identify the best value plays of the week, but we do have the spreads and matchup info. 

Here are the games for Week 1 listed in order of spread and betting market win odds for the favorite:

• Cincinnati (-9) vs. New England: 79% win odds
• Buffalo (-6.5) vs. Arizona: 73% win odds
• San Francisco (-5.5) vs. NY Jets: 68% win odds
• New Orleans (-5) vs. Carolina: 67% win odds
• Seattle (-4.5) vs. Denver: 69% win odds
• Chicago (-4.5) vs. Tennessee: 66% win odds
• Tampa Bay (-4) vs. Washington: 64% win odds
• Detroit (-3.5) vs. LA Rams: 63% win odds
• LA Chargers (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas: 63% win odds
• Miami (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville: 61% win odds
• Kansas City (-3) vs. Baltimore: 58% win odds
• Atlanta (-2.5) at Pittsburgh: 56% win odds
• Cleveland (-1.5) vs. Dallas: 53% win odds
• Minnesota (-1.5) at NY Giants: 51% win odds
• Houston (-1.5) at Indianapolis: 53% win odds
• Philadelphia (-1) vs. Green Bay in Brazil: 53% win odds

The general pick’em overview of the week is that there aren’t many complete mismatches, and there are several games that are closer to a toss-up, where playing for value will be key.

Cincinnati is the only team favored by more than a touchdown as of right now. That should make for a Week 1 with plenty of closer games and potential high leverage swings in weekly contests.

Some of the close lines are related to the uncertainty associated with Week 1. Last year, we saw a bunch of the top teams open on the road to start the year, but that is not the case this year. The “biggest” road favorite is Houston at -1.5 and 53% chance of winning at Indianapolis.

Based on the current market odds, an entry picking all sixteen favorites would be expected to average 10.0 wins and 6.0 losses in Week 1.

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FYI

Important Notes About Picks We Highlight

Keep in mind three things about picks we highlight in this article:

1. Optimal pick’em contest strategy balances risk and potential reward.
   Maximizing your odds to win a pick’em pool generally requires exploiting the best opportunities to differentiate your picks from your opponents’ picks. Ideally, you want to fade the public while taking on minimal additional pick risk to do so. For example, taking a betting market favorite being picked by less than 50% of your opponents is usually a great opportunity.
2. Not all of the picks we highlight are suitable for all pools.
   Don’t be surprised if our Football Pick’em Picks product doesn’t recommend several of the picks we mention in this post for your pool specifically—especially the upset picks. The best pick strategy for you depends on a number of factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure (a concept that’s covered in part by our article on season vs. weekly prize strategy).
3. Picks we highlight may no longer look compelling by game day.
   We analyze and write about picks using data (e.g. win odds and pick popularity) current at the time we publish each section of the article, but that data can change before kickoff. For example, a key player being ruled out or a shift in public sentiment about a team can erase the differentiation value that a pick initially offered.

We’ll provide periodic updates in this post if major data changes occur for picks we’ve mentioned, so make sure to check back. However, there’s a much better way to stay on top of changing data trends throughout a week, which all sharp players need to do.

Our Football Pick’em Picks product automatically imports the latest win odds and pick popularity data multiple times per day. You can see the latest information in the Data Grid.

After you generate customized picks for your pool, you can also update those pick recommendations whenever you want via the My Pool Picks screen. The updated picks will incorporate the most recent data we have.

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FYI

About Our Pick’em Pool Advice

What makes pick recommendations from our Football Pick’em Picks product different from other sites is that it isn’t generic.

In any given week, the best picks for your football pool depend on a number of variables. Your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure all influence strategy, as do factors like your current place in the standings and how many weeks are left.

So many different scenarios exist that it’s impossible to give pick advice that makes sense for every one. An underrated 6-point underdog could be a great pick in a big weekly prize pool and a terrible pick for a small season-long pool where you’re currently in the money.

Technology to the rescue

As far as we know, we’re the only site that has built algorithms to evaluate all these strategy factors and provide you with customized pick recommendations every week.

The result? Every year, an average of 74% of our subscribers win a prize (season-long or weekly) in a football pick’em contest.

If you want to see all the Week 1 picks we recommend for your football pick’em contest, use our Football Pick’em Picks product.

Why we write this column

At the same time, we know our subscribers like to understand the rationale behind picks our product may recommend, especially when those picks go against the grain. So over the years, we’ve started to write more about the “why” behind our approach.

This column can also help educate our readers with pick’em pool strategy. We highlight tactics proven to result in more pick’em pool wins over the long term and point out common pitfalls to avoid.

We hope you enjoy reading, and we encourage you to check out more of our football pick’em strategy articles.